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Welcome to week 11 of the NFL. This season has been a wild one, and we have come to expect the unexpected. What one must remember; have a balance. You must remember one thing, the best teams will rise to the top, yes, there will be some upsets along the way, however, as the weeks go by, we start to see who’s for real, and who is really, awful.
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Colts (5-5, 6-4-0 ATS) @ Bills (6-3, 5-3-1 ATS)
The Colts get on a plane and do it again! The last time they did this, things did not go as planned and they saddled up and boarded the plane home with a wildcard loss, 27-24. For head coach Fran Reich, that experience was painful and as much as the Colts think they may have turned the corner on the loss, you know what… We think the Bills beat them again. This Colts team is not all bad, and they have shown signs of being good, however, this team is different, the offense is different, the quarterback is different, and Buffalo just keeps getting better. Both teams come in with a ton of listed “questionable” the only “out” we know of is OT Spenser Brown – for the Bills. The Bills defense is allowing 15 ppg, and we think it holds up against an often-confused Colts offense.
Pick: Bills -7, Under 49.5
Ravens (6-3, 3-6-0 ATS) @ Bears (3-6, 4-5-0 ATS)
The Ravens are on a mission to pick themselves off the mat and from the depths of embarrassment, after the beatdown they took in Miami. Although the Ravens have been sketchy, we think they have enough firepower to beat the Bears, even on the road, in Soldier Field. The Bears come in having lost four in a row and they looked downright awful in three of those affairs. We should mention they did put up a fight in Pittsburgh on Monday night, beyond that game, they lost to the 49ers 22-33, to Tampa 3-38, and the Packers 14-24. Their last win came against the Raiders, 20-9. The Ravens are scoring 25.7 ppg, to the Bears abysmal 16.7. Both are allowing just over 24 ppg. There is simply no debate about who has the better quarterback, running back, and receiving core.
Pick: Ravens -4.5, Over 44.5
Lions (0-8-1, 5-4-0 ATS) @ Browns (5-5, 5-5-0 ATS)
Detroit hasn’t cared since, well maybe since Sanders left. Forget about the days of Stafford, they have very little to show for that era. We must give credit to the Lions for finding some kind of heart and trying to win the Pittsburgh battle. They didn’t walk away with the victory, however; a tie is a moral victory for this beat-up squad of football players. The problem we see with -11.5 for the Browns… the Lions have kept more than a few games close and have battled in many, with exception of the Eagles blowout. That was ugly, there is no arguing, however, is Cleveland 12 points better than the Lions? Can the Browns maintain a 19+ point lead to keep the bettor comfortable? The Browns have NOT shown us enough to comfortably lay 12 points.
Pick: Lions +11.5, Over 43 buying the hook
Texans (1-8, 4-5-0 ATS) @ Titans (8-2, 7-3-0 ATS)
The Texans are an ailing football team and it’s a surprise they have managed to win one game. They come into Music City having lost five consecutive and were blown out in three of them. Their last game on the 7th was a fairly decent effort against the Dolphins that ended in a loss, 9-17. We use “fairly decent” loosely! The Titans look like a great football team and they have passed some big challenges over the past few weeks. The Buffalo win five weeks ago was an outstanding effort in a come from behind game that ended 34-31, then it was a beatdown over the Chiefs, 27-3, a win in Indy, 34-31 in OT, and last week’s win over the Saints, 23-21. Tannehill has thrown for 2, 358 yards, 12 TDs, and 8 INTs. He’s not stellar, but he’s solid and that’s all the Titans need with offensive weapons everywhere. With or without Henry, we still believe in -10. The Titans are virtually unbeatable with Henry and he’s a huge loss, but The Texans will get blown out on the road.
Pick: Titans -10 Over 44.5
Packers (8-2, 9-1-0 ATS) @ Vikings (4-5, 5-4-0 ATS)
The Packers have a chip on their shoulder and it’s called losing to the Chiefs without Rogers. There are more than a few network talking heads calling for an upset this week, and giving cause to the Vikings. Sometimes the numbers you see don’t add up to the play on the field. The Packers are scoring 21.6 ppg, while the Vikings are scoring 24.6 per game. The Packers are a good defensive team but not some kind of juggernaut, they are playing well and allowing just 18 ppg. The Vikings are allowing 23.4 ppg. The Packers pass rush is a machine that allows just 221 ypg, and the defensive line is allowing 107.2 yards on the ground. These two do not like each other, we understand that, and the rivalry is old. The Packers are 8-2, for a reason, the Vikings are 4-5 for a reason. The Packers do enough to win, the Vikings don’t.
Pick: Packers -1, Over 47
Dolphins (3-7, 4-5-1 ATS) @ Jets (2-7, 2-7-0 ATS)
This game is interesting, highly interesting. Have the Dolphins reinvented the wheel? Their “cover 0” defense worked against Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, it worked against a very bad Houston Texans, and it worked in the first half against the Bills. The Jets have already announced they will be starting Joe Flacco over Mike White, who was replacing Zach Wilson. The Jets are a bad football team but they had some rhythm with White under center, remember the 30 points against the Colts? This Flacco idea, a BAD one!
Pick: Dolphins -3, Over 44.5
Saints (5-4, 5-4-0 ATS) @ Eagles (4-6, 5-5-0 ATS)
Hurts did it once, will he do it again, can he do it again? The man is playing pretty darn good football with 2, 159 yards, 13 TDs, and 5 INTs, not to mention that he’s rushed for 549 yards and 5 TDs. Listen, he did all in college, and he can do it all in the NFL, there is no doubt that he is a special talent and he could be a superstar in the NFL. Will he be one with the Eagles? Probably not. The biggest and brightest talents that suited up and called themselves a ‘Philadelphia quarterback’, and even played in and won Super Bowls, never became NFL superstars. Putting all of that aside, what happens in this one? We think the Eagles pick up their first win of the season at Lincoln financial. The Saints are hit and miss and they are not playing well. They lost to Atlanta!
Pick: Eagles +2, Over 43
Washington (3-6, 2-7-0 ATS) @ Panthers (5-5, 5-5-0 ATS)
We are willing to take our lumps, when we are wrong, we are wrong. Last week, we were dead wrong. We did say that Ron Rivera was a “great coach and just you wait, he will start winning, he will eventually turn this thing around”. We did not expect it to be against Tom Brady and the Bucs! We may be selling them a bit too soon but hey, anything can happen, this is the NFL baby! Here they go this week off to face the Panthers, Rivers old team, and just this week, the Panthers acquired Cam Newton – the face of the franchise and one of the main reasons for a Super Bowl appearance in SB 50. Rivera knows how to handicap Newton and it’s a guarantee that he will be on point. It’s going to take Carolina a while to get in the groove with Newton, but the defense is simply better. This will be close but the Panthers hang on and get the big win.
Pick: Panthers -3.5, Over 4
49ers (4-5, 3-6-0 ATS) @ Jaguars (2-7, 4-5-0 ATS)
The 49ers played big last Monday night and they won big over the Rams. This team is back in the mix and they mean business. We are not crowning them, no, not by any means, but we must acknowledge how they smacked the Rams upside the head and sent them packing. That game was ugly for the Rams. The Jaguars played fairly well in Indianapolis last week and had a shot late, but turnovers cost them an opportunity. No matter what the Jaguars may have done or have not done, or how close they have come in one game or another, at the end of the day, we can’t get around – 16.6 scored per game. It’s simply not enough to win games, not to mention they are allowing 25.8 ppg. Trevor Lawrence will be a good quarterback one day, and the Jaguars will not be bad forever, but the 49ers will be too much in this one.
Pick: 49ers -6.5, Under 45
Bengals (5-4, 4-5-0 ATS) @ Raiders (5-4, 4-5-0 ATS)
Here lie two unpredictable football teams that both need a win. Does home-field advantage mean anything in a stadium where there have been just 5-games played in front of people? NO, especially in Las Vegas. The Raiders are right where anybody with any football knowledge thought they would be after firing a two-time – Super Bowl-winning head coach. It matters not what you think of John Gruden, the facts don’t lie, this was his football team and he built the rebuild of the Raiders. Gruden would have eventually put a super competitive team on the field, and he had the quarterback to build a team around. The Bengals are up and down. One week they beat Baltimore 41-17 in Baltimore, the next week they lose to the Jets. NO, really, look it up, it happened! We so badly want to think the Raiders can win by 1 at home but it’s a struggle to make the trip to the ATM and place our hard-earned money on this thing, either way, is a struggle. We will tease it…
Pick: 7-point Teaser Raiders +8, Over 44.5
Cowboys (7-2, 8-1-0 ATS) @ Chiefs (6-4, 3-7-0 ATS)
The Cowboys fixed their temporary problems after the 16-30 loss, in Denver. They looked terrible at home, against the Broncos, but last week they looked like Super Bowl champions against the Falcons. This week will be a bigger test against the Chiefs as they head to Kansas City. Both teams come in having lost one of five, and both come in off of big wins. The Chiefs won big in Vegas over the Raiders, and the Cowboys won big in Dallas over the Falcons. Two years ago, the Chiefs had the weapons, today, the Cowboys have the weapons. Andy Reid will be suckered into a shootout with the Cowboys and sure enough, Mahomes wins the shootout (by very little) and the Chiefs still lose the game. If Reid runs first and throws second, then we stand corrected.
Pick: Cowboys +2.5, Over 56.5
Cardinals (8-2, 7-3-0 ATS) @ Seahawks (3-6, 5-4-0 ATS)
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Preview
Is Vegas missing the beat totally on this one? The Cardinals are favored by just 2.5 points. The Cardinals were beat up pretty good last week at home against the Panthers and they lost to the Packer at home on October 28th. The Carolina win was a big loss but teams have to grow, and good teams grow with those kinds of losses. The Seahawks have too many holes for us to like them in this game. They are struggling and every week there seems to be some new issue. Wilson will always be a great quarterback; he’s the real deal be he nor anybody else can walk the walk alone in the 206. The Cardinals break out the defense today and hold the Seahawks to less than 20 – this is why they hired Vance Joseph.
Pick: Cardinals -2.5 Over 47.5
Steelers (5-3-1, 3-6-0 ATS) @ Chargers (5-4, 5-4-0 ATS)
The Steelers are finally scoring a few more points and the sputtering offense is coming alive, somewhat. Had this game been played five weeks ago, we would have laid the points all day long. The Chargers looked great, and the Steelers looked bad. The Steelers are still not scoring more than 19.7 ppg, however, they are allowing just 20.6 per game. The Chargers are scoring 24.3 ppg and allowing 25.3, that’s ugly! Big Ben is out for this game, and that’s an offense killer. We can’t get behind a team that already has scoring problems but is now minus its two-time – Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
Pick: Chargers -5.5, Over 47
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