We’re going to compare NFL week 11 opening lines to the current betting odds available for both the point spread and game total. Analyzing early line movement helps identify where the sharp money is going.
This season has seen lots of underdogs not only cashing against the spread, but winning games.
NFL Week 10 Betting Recap
Let’s recap NFL week 10 betting results and update our season-long data.
Underdogs went 8-6 ATS this week and the over/under record was 7-7. This season underdogs are now 82-62-5 ATS and the over/under record is 61-86-2. The underdog/under trend is still going strong.
Of the eight underdogs to cash against the spread, seven of them also won straight-up. The Panthers, Lions, Vikings, Colts, Cardinals, Packers and Commanders all won. The biggest upset was the Commanders at +420 odds.
Analyzing NFL Week 11 Line Movement
We’re going to now take a look at the opening lines and current odds for NFL week 11.
Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers
Opening Spread: Packers -1.5 / Current Spread: Packers -3
Opening Total: 38.5 Points / Current Total: 42 Points
The Packers are coming off a win and 3-2 at Lambeau, but the Titans are 7-2 ATS.
Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants
Opening Spread: Giants -4.5 / Current Spread: Giants -3
Opening Total: 46.5 Points / Current Total: 46 Points
The Lions have won two in a row, but are 1-3 on the road. The Giants are 7-2 ATS this season.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Opening Spread: Patriots -5.5 / Current Spread: Patriots -3
Opening Total: 39.5 Points / Current Total: 38.5 Points
The Patriots defeated the Jets (22-17) in week 8 on the road and have now won two in a row.
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons
Opening Spread: Falcons -4.5 / Current Spread: Falcons -3
Opening Total: 49.5 Points / Current Total: 49.5 Points
Both of these teams are struggling to win, but there will be lots of points scored in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts
Opening Spread: Eagles -10 / Current Spread: Eagles -7.5
Opening Total: 44.5 Points / Current Total: 44.5 Points
If the Eagles win big tonight against Washington, this point spread could start increasing again.
Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints
Opening Spread: Saints -1 / Current Spread: Saints -3
Opening Total: 41 Points / Current Total: 39.5 Points
The Rams have lost three in a row and missing the playoffs is looking more likely by the week.
Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Opening Spread: Ravens -13 / Current Spread: Ravens -12
Opening Total: 43.5 Points / Current Total: 43.5 Points
This is the biggest spread for week 11. The Ravens are only 2-2 (0-3-1 ATS) at home.
Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Opening Spread: Bills -6 / Current Spread: Bills -9.5
Opening Total: 46.5 Points / Current Total: 47 Points
The Bills have lost two in a row and should win, but covering -9.5 is asking a lot.
Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans
Opening Spread: Commanders -2.5 / Current Spread: Commanders -2.5
Opening Total: 40.5 Points / Current Total: 40.5 Points
If you like the Commanders this week, you won’t get better than -2.5 and it could jump higher.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Opening Spread: Broncos -2.5 / Current Spread: Broncos -2.5
Opening Total: 42.5 Points / Current Total: 41.5 Points
These two teams met in week 4 and combined for 55 points (Raiders won 32-23).
Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
Opening Spread: Cowboys -2.5 / Current Spread: Cowboys -1
Opening Total: 47.5 Points / Current Total: 47.5 Points
The Vikings have won seven games in a row and are 4-0 at home, but are still underdogs this week.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Opening Spread: Bengals -5.5 / Current Spread: Bengals -4.5
Opening Total: 43.5 Points / Current Total: 40.5 Points
The Steelers defeated the Bengals (23-20) in week 1, but don’t expect a repeat performance.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Opening Spread: Chiefs -5.5 / Current Spread: Chiefs -7.5
Opening Total: 50 Points / Current Total: 50 Points
The Chiefs defeated the Chargers (27-24) in week 2. LAC are 6-3 ATS and this is a big spread to cover.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Opening Spread: 49ers -5.5 / Current Spread: 49ers -7.5
Opening Totalo: 43.5 Points / Current Total: 43.5 Points
This is a big spread and a lot will depend upon whether or not QB Kyler Murray is playing.