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Well, three of the teams who were really embarrassed the week before were able to bounce back in a big way on Sunday.
Dallas beat Atlanta 43-3. Buffalo rolled over the Jets 45-17, while Carolina slapped Arizona around by a 34-10 count.
The Rams… well, not so much.
As Robert Mays of The Athletic tweeted, “The Rams’ defensive structure essentially dares an offense to get bored running the ball. And the Niners’ staff thinks that running the ball is the most exciting thing on earth.”
Yup, I should have listened to him.
But all’s good in the world. The Detroit Lions actually played a game that they didn’t lose.
49ers at Jaguars Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 21 – 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (-105) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 (-115)
The Play: JAGUARS +6.5 (-115)
This is no resounding endorsement of J-Ville. But you’ve got the Niners coming east for the early game, and after a very big win over the Rams, so the schedule doesn’t help them.
And the Jags stand a decent chance at the line of scrimmage. Whereas the Rams are more or less inviting to opposing ground games, Jacksonville is somewhat less tolerant, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. They’re also not half-bad defending on third downs or in the red zone. The Jags have the second best pressure rate on passers, and (at least going into the Monday night game) Jimmy Garoppolo was 35th against pressure among NFL quarterbacks.
Jacksonville is inconsistent more than anything else in the passing game, but they are averaging 5.1 yards per carry as a team, and of course we are assuming James Robinson, who played against the Colts with a calf injury, will be good to go again.
Note that after snuffing out Buffalo two weeks ago, the Jags held Indianapolis below 300 yards on Sunday.
Dolphins at Jets Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 21 – 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Miami Dolphins -3 (-120) vs. New York Jets +3 (+100)
The Play: DOLPHINS -3 (-120)
It was no accident that Miami stifled Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last time out. It was a “Cover Zero” scheme cooked up by head coach Brian Flores and defensive coordinator Josh Boyer that sends safeties on blitzes, relies on man coverage, and dares the opposing quarterback to beat them deep. And it worked. The Dolphins sent their safeties 38 times, more than anyone in recent memory. In the words of NFL Network’s Bucky Brooks, they put on a “Cover Zero clinic,” and a “teaching tape” for this kind of scheme.
At the time of this writing, the Jets hadn’t announced a starter at quarterback. But we figure that whether it’s raw rookie Zach Wilson or Mike White (four INT’s last week, less than six Intended Air Yards per attempt), the Jets will find it difficult to meet the challenge.
Quick pointspread note: the Dolphins have covered the last six meetings with the Jets.
Texans at Titans Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 21 – 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Tennessee Titans -10.5 (-110) vs. Houston Texans +10.5 (-110)
The Play: TITANS -10.5 (-110)
We realize that the Titans are going without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, but there is so little that is desirable about the Texans. Among the 32 NFL teams, they have scored the least (14.2 ppg), gained the least (280 yards /game), allowed 28.7 ppg and rushed for 3.3 yards per attempt.
And you can’t possibly ignore the fact that these last five wins for Tennessee came against five teams who were in the playoffs last year (Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams, Saints) and might even make it again this season. They’re in a groove, and with Mike Vrabel’s guidance, they’re adjusting on the fly.
Packers at Vikings Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 21 – 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Green Bay Packers -2.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Vikings +2.5 (-110)
The Play: PACKERS -2.5 (-110)
Kirk Cousins can get rid of the ball quickly, and he can work the short-range game, which is what you have to do against Green Bay. But you have to sit up and take notice of the Packers’ stop unit, which held Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson to a combined 327 yards on 77 throw (4.25 per attempt) the last two weeks. That said, those teams didn’t have formidable ground games, while Minnesota has Dalvin Cook.
We acknowledge that Aaron Jones probably won’t play (MCL sprain) and tight end Robert Tonyan is out for the year, but picking up the slack are wrecking ball AJ Dillon (did you see him on Sunday?) and Mercedes Lewis, a superior blocker.
For what it’s worth, Aaron Rodgers has 50 TD passes and just seven INT’s for his career against the Vikings. And the Packers have covered nine straight games.
Bengals at Raiders Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 21 – 4:05 PM ET
ATS Odds: Cincinnati Bengals -1 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Raiders +1 (-110)
The Play: BENGALS -1 (-110)
You have to wonder whether the Raiders have begun the swoon some expected out of them. After a stupid personal foul penalty on the part of Maxx Crosby, they seemed to lay down against Kansas City. and they did it at home.
They say that without Henry Ruggs these last couple of games, Las Vegas has really missed the threat of the deep guy. Well, Derek Carr HAS thrown for 1.6 yards per attempt less than before in these last couple of contests. DeSean Jackson could help, but he’s too dumb to finish plays, apparently.
Joe Burrow has been intercepted eleven times, and that includes a pick-six against the Browns when last seen. But interestingly, he is also accurate, with the lowest “Bad Throw” percentage in the NFL (well, except for Mike White, who throws it less than six yards beyond scrimmage). He’ll do very well underneath against the Raider scheme, and Las Vegas can’t cover tight ends, so it’s CJ Uzomah’s wheelhouse.
