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We were considering going with the Buffalo Bills as a viable team total this week. They had gone on a streak of five straight games with 34 points or more. And right now they are #1 in the NFL in points scored on a per-drive basis.
But then they were slowed down considerably against Miami, chalking up a gratuitous touchdown at the end to get to 26 points. And then Jacksonville slammed the door shut.
That they scored 45 against the Jets last week perhaps shouldn’t even count, as Gang Green has allowed 175 points over the last four games.
Ravens at Bears Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 21 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Baltimore Ravens -Over 26 Points (-115) / Under 26 Points (-115)
The Play: RAVENS UNDER 26 POINTS (-115)
Miami seemingly came out of nowhere last week to confuse Lamar Jackson, sending safeties on one blitz after another – 38 of them in all, employing something called “Cover Zero.”
They were basically taking a gamble and daring Jackson to beat them on deep routes. But he didn’t get the time. And the Dolphins dropped certain pass rushers into coverage.
In the words of NFL Network analyst Bucky Brooks, such a thing serves to “shrink their playbook due to pressure.”
Remember that Jackson went into that game averaging a little over ten Intended Air Yards per throw. And on passes ten or more yards down the field, he went 3-of-12 with an interception.
This scheme carved out a blueprint for other teams, and we expect the Bears to follow it. We are assuming that linebacker Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson will be back from injury. On that basis, we’ll take a shot.
Saints at Eagles Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 21 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: New Orleans Saints – Over 20.5 Points (-120) / Under 20.5 Points (-110)
The Play: SAINTS OVER 20.5 POINTS (-120)
Trevor Siemian is none too explosive normally. But the fact is, he has not yet thrown an interception, and he also possesses the second-highest fourth quarter QB grade from the analytics site Pro Football Focus.
New Orleans is hopeful that RB Alvin Kamara can play, and so are we. We’re also hoping Taysom Hill gets some more touches; he had six last week. He has achieved a first down on 59% of his touches. And the Eagles are the NFL worst at defending tight ends. Hill can play there, but so does Adam Trautman, who’s been used more lately (nine receptions last two weeks).
Cardinals at Seahawks Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 21 – 4:25 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Seattle Seahawks – Over 24 Points (-110) / Under 24 Points (-120)
The Play: SEAHAWKS UNDER 24 POINTS (-110)
We would readily concede that DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are capable of much more than they demonstrated against Green Bay (five catches, 49 yards). The question is, what is Russell Wilson capable of? Throwing for 161 yards on 40 attempts with two INT’s as an indicator that something is wrong.
Did Wilson come back too soon from his broken finger? Everyone seemed to think it was a remarkable “recovery.” The season had started to slip away. What choices was he giving himself? And did he aggravate that injury against the Packers?
It’s part of Pete Carroll’s basic philosophy to get something going on the ground. But the Seahawks don’t have enough of a running game to compensate, not with Alex Collins playing the lead. Keep in mind that the Cards, even after their pasting at the hands of Carolina, are still fourth best in the league in points allowed per drive.
WFT at Panthers Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 21 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Washington Football Team – Over 20 Points (-115) / Under 20 Points (-115)
The Play: WFT UNDER 20 POINTS (-115)
Taylor Heinicke got some help from turnovers and a general malaise on the part of the Bucs and put together a nice day last week (26 of 32, 256 yards). But he doesn’t have so many weapons that he can afford to lose people like his tight end Ricky Seals-Jones, who is out.
While Cam Newton was dangerous in those special “package” plays Joe Brady mapped out for him, no one can be sure how he’ll do if he is behind center on an every-down basis. But we do know that the Panthers’ defense is a solid #1 in the NFL in yards allowed per drive (23.3) and second in points / drive.
Dolphins at Jets Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 21 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: New York Jets Over 20.5 Points (-115) / Under 20.5 Points (-115)
The Play: JETS UNDER 20.5 POINTS (-115)
We would be surprised if the Dolphins didn’t cook up all kinds of blitzes the way they did when they held the Ravens to just ten points and 304 total yards in that Thursday night game.
That is because they could probably cross up either of the possible Jets quarterbacks – Zach Wilson, who’s thrown nine interceptions and is liable to look like a deer in the headlights, or Mike White, who has thrown the ball an average of 5.9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Neither of them is likely to beat Miami deep in such a way that it would mitigate the effect of this “Cover Zero” approach.
