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We saw three games on Thanksgiving Day and what we saw was the Lions getting punked again, the Cowboys serving up excuses about the refs, and just an overall stinker from a team the entire world expected more from! The best game of the day (unless you’re a Saints fan) was the Bills coming back from utter embarrassment with their beatdown at home, by the Colts.
We have 11-fantastic matchups for you on this Sunday, after Thanksgiving. Every single game brings at least one avenue of vale and we will show you how and where. You may be using a great domestic bookmaker, we encourage you to keep them, but you MUST find a great offshore bookmaker and keep your local guy honest. You will find the best lines and odds with the offshore bookie, as well as a fair bonus and one that will win you money consistently.
Steelers (5-4-1, 4-6-0 ATS) @ Bengals (6-4, 5-5-0 ATS)
Bengals -4, 45
The Steelers have forever and always, been thought of as a defensive juggernaut. Newsflash, the Bengals are holding opponents to 21.6 points per game, and the Steelers are holding its opponents to 22.6 points per game. The one (major) defensive category where the Steelers outshine the Bengals, is ‘passing yards allowed’- and we use “outshine” loosely. The Steelers hold their opponents to 258.1 yards per game, and the Bengals hold their opponents to 269.7 yards per game. As much as we love ‘Big Ben’, we will take Burrow in this matchup with 31.5 attempts per game to Roethlisberger’s, throw, throw, throw approach. The Bengals are also outnumbering the Steelers on the ground with 103.3 yards per game to the Steelers 90.7. The Steelers are 5-4-1 with a tie coming against the Lions – despite Mike Tomlin, a head coach who has lost it with his team. Both teams come in having won three of the last five games. The offense for the Steelers has picked up over the last couple of weeks, while the Bengals have lost two of the last three in which they allowed 41 to Cleveland, and 34 to the Jets. This game is for bragging rights in the division and a leg up in the AFC North. The Bengals will be motivated.
Pick: Bengals -4, Over 45
Buccaneers (7-3, 4-6-0 ATS) @ Colts (6-5, 7-4-0 ATS)
Buccaneers -3, 53
You will witness a great game in this matchup. The one thing we know about Brady playing in Indy – he owns that town with a 15-4 record, and 38 TDs throughout 19 games. That was a different era, a different time, and the New England Patriots owned everybody, not just the Colts. Brady is slowing down, he’s still productive, and he can still make solid decisions, but he’s 44 and time is starting to catch up with him. The Buccaneers have made adjustments and their defense has stepped up in a big way. They come into today’s game with the 8th ranked defense in the NFL and number 1 against the rush. They’re going to need that defense against a Colts team that scored 41 points against the Bills, in Buffalo – Buffalo is holding its opponents to an average of 15 points per game. Jonathan Taylor is the star in Indy with 193 carries for1122 yards and 13 TDs. Wentz has been solid as well, with 2484 yards, 18 TDs, and just 3 INTs. The Colts’ defense is solid, as they hold opponents to 22.3 ppg, to the Bucs 22.2 ppg. The Bucs hold opponents to78.4 yards on the ground, and the Colts allow 111.6. The number we like is rushing yards… The Bucs are rushing for 91.2 yards per game to the Colts 147.9 per game. Bottom line. The Colts are riding high after a big win in Buffalo. They cover and get the win in this one. Frank Reich will be prepared for what Brady’s cooking.
Pick: Colts +3, Over 53
Panthers (5-6, 5-6-0 ATS) @ Dolphins (4-7, 5-5-1 ATS)
Panthers -2, 42
Sam Darnold, the man is struggling with the Panthers as he comes into this game against the Dolphins with 1986 yards, 7 TDs, and 11 INTs. Something somewhere is amiss with this team’s offensive plan, well, let’s be honest, it’s awful. Will Cam Newton be a game- changer? It’s doubtful. The Panthers started the season in a good way then went out and lost four in a row, then won two of four, with a loss coming last week to Washington. The Dolphins won their first then lost seven in a row, but are now on a three-game winning streak that’s due in large part to their new defensive scheme – “cover 0”. Hey, whatever works. It’s difficult to get behind a team with huge problems at the helm, the Panthers are that team. Darnold has never fit in, and Cam was sent packing for a reason. The Panthers will go through growing pains with Newton, whether he is ever back to his once great self, who knows, but our money will not be going his way against a team that is much better than its record indicates.
Pick: Dolphins +2 Under 42
Titans (8-3, 7-4-0 ATS) @ Patriots (7-4, 7-4-0 ATS)
Patriots -7, 43
The Titans failed us badly last week. What a train wreck that game was against the Texans. The Patriots have the historical advantage but nothing from the Brady era counts. The Patriots are playing flat-out fantastic defense and allowing just 16.1 points per game. The Titans are allowing 23.1 points per game and they seem to allow themselves to be fished into playing one style vs another. They run with teams, they throw with teams, and in more than a few games, they have been on the brink, and last week they were flat out beat up by a bad team. There is no excuse for losing at home to the Texans. For our money, we will take Mac Jones over Tannehill. We love what the Patriots are doing and what they have done over the past few weeks on defense and offense, they put up a 25-0 win over the Falcons, a 45-7 win over the Browns, and a 24-6 win over Carolina.
Pick: Patriots -7, Under 43
Eagles (5-6, 6-5-0 ATS) @ Giants (3-7, 5-5-0 ATS)
Eagles -3.5, 45.5
The Eagles and Hurts keep racking up the yards on the ground and ramping up their effectiveness in the air. This team is on the cusp of being good, and it helps they are rushing for 153.4 yards per game. The Giants are rushing for 92.9 yards per game. The Giants are improving slowly, they took a setback last Monday night against the Buccaneers but that was to be expected, however, they looked awful, the 10-30 loss may as well have been a 52-3 kind of loss! The Giants are still rebuilding and still trying to figure out their offense. Daniel Jones has potential, and he is well-coached with Jason Garrett as the offensive coordinator. Traditionally, it’s difficult to waltz into the Giants’ house and get a win. We know the stakes are different now but with an Eagles team that struggles to find a flow, we think this one is close but we won’t take or lay 3.5. We will play a 7-point teaser.
Pick: Giants 7-point teaser +10.5, Over 38.5
Falcons (4-6, 4-6-0 ATS) @ Jaguars (2-8, 4-6-0 ATS)
Falcons -2, 46
The Falcons give bettors nothing to work with. They are awful, simply stated, awful. They score 17.8 points per game and allow 28.8 per game. The problem here… The Jaguars are not much better. They are scoring 15.9 points per game and allowing 26.2. Vegas is playing this one strictly by the numbers, they are not taking the last few games into account, they are not giving the Jaguars any kind of credit for home-field advantage, they are not looking at the Indy game (17-23 loss in Indy), the Buffalo win, 9-6, or the Miami win, 23-20. The Falcons have lost the last two games by a combined total of 68-3. The Falcons have given up, they no longer care about winning. The Jaguars want to win, they showed us that much with the Buffalo game. Last week was miserable against the 49ers, but we think even the Texans could beat the Falcons.
Pick: Jaguars ML Win, Under 46
Jets (2-8, 2-8-0 ATS) @ Texans (2-8, 5-5-0 ATS)
Texans -2.5, 44.5
The battle of two stinkers! Zach Wilson will be taking the field for the Jets, now listen, we think that’s a good thing but who knows with this team. Mills is certainly not going to win any awards with 7 TDs and 8 INTs. Our biggest problem in this game is not the offense (although it’s rock bottom terrible for both teams), our problem is the rotten stench of a defense that both teams lay claim to. The Texans are allowing 27.1 points per game, and the Jets are allowing 32. The numbers across the board are nearly close to the same with exception of ‘yards passing’ – the Jets are passing for 279.3 yards per game, to the Texans 212 per game. We MUST give the Texans credit for a big win over the Titans last week. That game is a confidence booster.
Pick: Texans Money Line Win, Over 44.5
Chargers (6-4, 5-5-0 ATS) @ Broncos (5-5, 5-5-0 ATS)
Chargers -2.5, 47.5
Must win for the Broncos. It’s not a must-win simply for playoff chances but for any kind of validation. Can the Broncos win when it matters? For a team that started 3-0, life has been a struggle of late. The Broncos lost big to Philly last week, at Mile High, which tells us they could lose to the Chargers as well. The weird thing about this team… they beat the Cowboys in Dallas, 30-16, and Washington the week before, 17-10. The Broncos have weapons, but much like the Steelers, they are a mismanaged team. Bridgewater is a hurler; he is capable of winning a ton of games in the NFL but he must be given the game plan to get it done. The Chargers also have weapons in Allen with 810 yards on the season, Ekeler with 573 rushing yards and 7 TDs, and Herbert with 2927 yards, 22 TDs, and 8 INTs. The Broncos answer the rushing attack with 522 yards from Gordon, and 5 TD’s. As difficult as it is to pick against the Broncos in a rival game at Mile High, one must remember who the better team is, it’s the Chargers, and the Broncos’ coaching staff is an absolute zoo.
Pick: Chargers -2.5, Under 47.5
Rams (7-3, 4-6-0 ATS) @ Packers (8-3, 9-2-0 ATS)
Rams -1, 47
The Packers are playing better defense, by 3 points, the Rams are playing better offense, by 5 points. At Lambeau Field, we would take Rogers over any quarterback in the league. The Packers are 4-0 at home. Don’t get excited, we said “at home”, we did not say we would take Rogers over any other quarterback on the road, but we would certainly take him at home. The Rams are 4-6 against the spread, they are overvalued by Vegas. In their last game on the 15th (Monday night in SF), they were awful in a losing effort 10-31, the week before they lost to the Titans, 16-28, the week before was a win over the Texans 38-22, and Detroit the prior week 28-19. We said all of that to show a pattern of non-dominance over anybody, not the Lions, or the Texans. One must go back five weeks ago against the Giants to see a dominating performance, 38-11. The Packers let one get away last week in Minnesota and lost in KC without Rogers at the helm. This week at home, they will make adjustments and the defense will do its job.
Pick: Packers +1 under 47
Vikings (5-5, 6-4-0 ATS) @ 49ers (5-5, 4-6-0 ATS)
49ers -3, 49
The Vikings are 2-3 on the road, and the 49ers are 1-4 at home. These two come in needing a win to go 6-5 and stay on the winning side of their record. The loser will fall to 5-6 and once again be looking up the hill to get back into playoff contention. The 49ers have scored 61 points over the last two games and held their opponents to 10 points per game. The 49ers are scoring 24.6 ppg and allowing 22.2 per game, the Vikings are scoring 25.5 ppg and allowing 24.2 per game. The Vikings are putting up 397.8 total yards of offense to the 49ers 369.8. The Vikings are passing for 278.6 yards per game and rushing for 119.2 yards per game, in comparison to the 49ers passing for 246.6 yards per game, and 123.2 yards per game. The Vikings are allowing 273 passing yards per game and 127 rushing yards per game. The 49ers are allowing 218.7 passing yards per game and 115.9 rushing yards per game. Josh Norman is listed as questionable for this game, that’s a step up from “out”, he is a defensive game-changer. What the 49ers have done over the past two weeks is build momentum. Anytime a team travels 3,000 miles across the country and gets a win, that’s a good indicator of the confidence level. We realize the number across the board are very similar but at home, with the momentum of the |Rams win on the 15th on Monday night, then last week in Jacksonville, we have to back the 49ers.
Pick: 49ers -3, Over 49
Browns (6-5, 5-6-0 ATS) @ Ravens (7-3, 4-6-0 ATS)
Ravens -3.5, 47
The Ravens are 7-3 by the skin of their teeth, and it all started in week 1 in Vegas with an overtime loss, 27-33, then back home with a win over the Chiefs, 36-35, then over the Lions on a last-second field goal, 19-17, over Denver, 23-7 (a solid win), then over the Colts 31-25 in OT, after the Colts missed three field goals and had the game won, in Baltimore, then a big win over the Chargers, 34-6, a loss to the l at home, 17-41, another win in OT over the Vikings, a loss in Miami, 10-22, and finally a win over the Bears, 16- 13. Five of their seven wins were by the skin of their teeth. Now for many, this is what good teams do, they win the close ones that could go either way. What about the Raiders game, or better yet, what about the loss at home to the Bengals? The Browns need this game worse than the Ravens.
Pick: Browns +3, Over 47
Hopefully, you had a wonderful; Thanksgiving holiday, you had a lot of food, a ton of fun with friends and family, and most of all, you won a boatload of cash. You have another opportunity to win big today with some fantastic games that even have playoff implications. The offshore bookmakers offer the sharpest lines, and the fastest payouts, and best of all, they will never charge you a commission or tax on your winnings. Find a bookie that comes loaded with great betting options and one that has a stellar reputation for customer service. The NFL season is heating up, and there has never been a better time than now to start winning.
