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We’re going to analyze the top five NFL week 2 point spread picks.
Before we do that, let’s briefly recap the opening week of the season. Favorites went 8-8 ATS. Five of the underdogs that covered ATS also won SU, including the Seahawks, Steelers, Browns, Bears and Giants.
Here are the top five NFL week 2 ATS picks:
New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
Best Bet: Browns -5.5
The Jets (0-1 / 0-1 ATS) lost to the Ravens (24-9) in week 1. The Browns (1-0 / 1-0 ATS) were able to upset Baker Mayfield and the Panthers (26-24) on the road. Cleveland will host the NYJ on Sunday.
Jacoby Brissett struggled in week 1, going 18/34 for 147 yards and 1 TD. However, Nick Chubb rushed for 141 yards on 22 carries. Cleveland rushed for a total of 217 yards and 1 TD on 39 carries.
Joe Flacco isn’t the answer in NY. He went 37/59 for 307 yards, but only 1 TD and 1 INT. The Browns jump out to a lead and run the football to keep the defense fresh. The Browns cover ATS at home.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Best Bet: Jaguars +4
The Colts (0-0-1 / 0-1 ATS) tied the Texans (20-20) in week 1. The performance wasn’t as bad as the final score makes it seem, though. Matt Ryan went 32/50 for 352 yards and 1 TD, but he turned it over twice.
Jonathan Taylor rushed for 161 yards and 1 TD on 31 carries. The defense also limited the Texans to only 299 yards of total offense. The Jaguars (0-1 / 0-1 ATS) lost to the Commanders (28-22) in week 1.
Trevor Lawrence wasn’t great (275 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT), but the run game was solid (123 rushing yards and 1 TD on 18 carries). They need to try and balance the offense a bit more at home.
The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five H2H games, the Colts are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games in Jacksonville and the home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine H2H meetings. Take the Jags at home.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Seahawks vs. 49ers Predictions
Best Bet: Seahawks +10
The Seahawks (1-0 / 1-0 ATS) defeated Russell Wilson and the Broncos (17-16) on MNF. The 49ers (0-1 / 0-1 ATS) were dominated by the Bears (19-10). Trey Lance is going to struggle at QB early on.
Lance doesn’t look ready. He went 13/28 for 164 yards and 1 INT in week 1. The Niners rushed for a total of 176 yards and 1 TD on 37 carries, but scoring 10 points isn’t going to get it done most weeks.
Seattle are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the last four H2H meetings, but that was with Wilson. Still, Geno Smith threw for 195 yard and 2 TDs in an efficient week 1 performance. He can keep this game close.
The underdog is also 5-2 ATS in the last seven H2H meetings.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Rams
Best Bet: Rams -10
A lot of shops have bumped this spread to -10.5 in favor of the Rams (0-1 / 0-1 ATS), so jump on the -10 while it’s available. The Rams are coming off a loss to the Bills (31-10) on TNF in week 1.
The Falcons (0-1 / 1-0) lost to the Saints (27-26), but covered ATS. They rushed for 201 yards and 2 TDs on 38 carries, but the passing game is going to struggle with Marcus Mariota.
LAR have a stout defense and I don’t expect the Falcons to exceed 14-17 points on Sunday. Matthew Stafford will have a better game after throwing 3 INTs in week 1 and I expect a blowout win for the Rams.
These two don’t play too often, but the favorite is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Cardinals vs. Raiders Predictions
Best Bet: Cardinals +6
The Cardinals (0-1 / 0-1 ATS) ran into Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (44-21) in a week 1 loss. It looks like this point spread is an overreaction to that loss, as the Raiders (0-1 / 0-1 ATS) are favored by six.
That’s too many points for the Raiders to cover. Las Vegas are coming off a road loss to the Chargers (24-19). Derek Carr threw 3 INTs to 2 TDs and the run game wasn’t any better.
Kyler Murray threw for only 193 yards and 2 TDs against KC, but he didn’t turn it over. These are two struggling teams. Arizona are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, but they could pull off the upset here.
LV are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a losing record. They’re also 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite. I’m definitely grabbing the points in what’s a toss up game.
