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Styles make fights. That’s what I learned in the boxing business. They also kind of make football games.
And what I mean by that is that sometimes what one team commonly does on defense makes it a little easier for their opponent to score. Conversely, sometimes the defensive scheme has exactly what it takes to thwart even a capable offense.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Chargers vs. Ravens Prediction
Time: Sunday, October 17 at 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds:
Ravens Over 27.5 Points (-115) / Ravens Under 27.5 Points (-115)
The Play: RAVENS OVER 27.5 POINTS (-115)
Last week we told you about how Chargers coach Brandon Staley will let opponents run the football in the interest of keeping safeties back and preventing big plays. And the Browns, tops in the league in rushing, racked up 230 yards on the ground, averaging 6.6 yards per carry.
Well, Baltimore can run too (fourth in NFL with 148.8 ypg), making this potentially a rough matchup for the Bolts as well. And it’s going to be tough for Staley to “cheat” in any way; Lamar Jackson, who was 37 of 43 for 442 yards in the big comeback win against Indianapolis, is the only starting quarterback in the league to average more than ten “Intended Air Yards,” that is, yards beyond the line of scrimmage, per attempt.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team
Time: Sunday, October 17 at 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds:
WFT Over 24.5 Points (+100) / WFT Under 24.5 Points (-130)
The Play: WFT OVER 24.5 POINTS (+100)
Okay, we can’t say the WFT has been completely anemic with Taylor Heinicke at the controls, although “explosive” would not be the appropriate word to describe them on offense.
But you don’t have to be anything extraordinary to advance the ball against this Kansas City stop unit. The Chiefs have allowed 45.6 yards and almost 3.4 points per opponent’s drive, and both of those figures are worst in the NFL.
And coordinator Steve Spagnuolo didn’t seem to reveal any possible answers during his press conferences this week. It actually got embarrassing last Sunday, as Buffalo’s receivers found themselves wide open in the secondary.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
Cardinals vs. Browns Prediction
Time: Sunday, October 17 at 4:05 PM ET
Team Totals Odds:
Browns Over 27 Points (-110) / Browns Under 27 Points (-120)
The Play: BROWNS OVER 27 POINTS (-110)
Well, as we mentioned above, Cleveland is the #1 rushing team in the NFL, and they can hit opponents with the 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb (second in the NFL) and Kareem Hunt. Last week the team had 532 yards of offense against the L.A. Chargers and kept the ball for 36-1/2 minutes.
The Browns are second in “Adjusted Line Yards,” and they get a good push from the line, obviously. Arizona’s defensive line does have a decent stuff rate of 22%, but they are allowing 5.4 yards a carry (that’s better than the Chargers only). The Cards defend the pass much better, which should serve to funnel activity to Chubb and Hunt.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
Cowboys vs. Patriots Prediction
Time: Sunday, October 17 at 4:25 PM ET
Team Totals Odds:
Patriots Over 21.5 Points (-125) / Patriots Under 21.5 Points (-105)
The Play: PATRIOTS UNDER 21.5 POINTS (-105)
Close call last week against Houston, as the Pats found themselves down 22-9 with 24 minutes left in the game. So yeah, scoring is a struggle. Do you think Bill Belichick envisioned that his team would be averaging 80 yards a game on the ground, good for just 27th in the NFL, and that he would be throwing the ball 65% of the time with a rookie quarterback?
Mac Jones hasn’t been bad – he’s made less than 11% bad throws, and has been on target 83.2% of the time, second best in the league. But it’s a lot of low-risk stuff. Low risk, low reward. New England has scored TD’s on only 37.5% of its red zone trips, and that’s 31st in a 32-team league.
