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I guess if there was a theme for the picks this week, it involves teams that have to bounce back. And I mean from unbelievably disappointing or heart-breaking performances.
And it is no surprise that those teams are largely underdogs or should we say LARGE underdogs? There are some big numbers out there this week.
Panthers at Giants Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, October 24 – 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Carolina Panthers -3 (-105) vs. New York Giants +3 (-115)
The Play: PANTHERS -3 (-105)
You look at those numbers for the Panthers against Minnesota and ask yourself, “How can a team that was outgained by 265 yards, with a minus-2 in turnovers and a minus-4 in sacks, actually take a game into overtime?” Well, I guess one answer is that the Vikings got penalized a lot, and another is that Carolina scored a touchdown on a blocked punt return.
But you get an idea of how badly they played, especially the defense, which – statistically anyway – was among the top three in the NFL but gave up 571 yards to Kirk Cousins & Co. They are throwing rocks at Sam Darnold now, after a 17-of-41 performance. The truth is that the Panthers won their first three games with Christian McCaffrey, and have lost three in a row without him. And he’s not walking through that door on Sunday.
Now Darnold returns to the site of some of his biggest failures.
We hate to beat the drum for the Giants too hard. And it did look like Daniel Jones was gun shy coming back from his concussion. There’s not much positive to say about the 38-11 loss to the Rams. And it’s quite possible that wide receiver Kadarious Toney and tackle Andrew Thomas won’t be available. That makes a difference.
Falcons at Dolphins Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, October 24 – 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (-110) vs. Miami Dolphins +2.5 (-110)
The Play: DOLPHINS +2.5 (-110)
It would seem difficult to make a case for the Dolphins, wouldn’t it? After all, they couldn’t even beat a team (Jacksonville) that had lost twenty games in a row, with a coach who has become an industry joke, and they even got a gift from that coach with an ill-advised fourth-down call. But you know, Brian Flores blew a fourth-down call of his own, which opened the door for the Jags.
Atlanta has more weaponry, although it hasn’t really been given the opportunity to flourish. It’s nice that they shifted Cordarelle Patterson into a running back’s role, but Kyle Pitts is still getting used to Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley is averaging less than ten yards a catch. Ryan is short-arming the ball more than in the past (6.2 air yards per attempt), so don’t get the impression these guys are explosive. The Falcons have beaten only the Giants and Jets, and Miami at least looked a little more alive on offense with Tua back at the controls. We’ll take the points, despite the fact that the Falcons (off a bye week) would seem to have the scheduling edge.
Lions at Rams Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, October 24 – 4:05 PM ET
ATS Odds: Los Angeles Rams -15 (-105) vs. Detroit Lions +15 (-115)
The Play: LIONS +15 (-115)
It’s not so much that we are sour on the Lions, although you could see a real letdown last week after the Minnesota disappointment, as they were flat against Cincinnati, to say the least. But as we have seen, the Rams have demonstrated themselves to be fully capable of running up the score against outclassed opposition.
What happened with Jared Goff is that he threw for 202 yards on 42 attempts. Do the math. That’s a little less than five yards per attempt. That’s rough. It is tough to defend the Detroit case on the basis of statistics, as they are fifth from the bottom in scoring and 26th in points allowed. They have also allowed almost ten yards per pass attempt, which brings an “ouch.” Yet they have managed to play with some gusto against a few of the better opponents, like Minny and Baltimore (and let’s not forget the big rally against San Francisco in the season opener).
Sure, the Rams are superior, and Matthew Stafford has practiced against this defense. But the same can be said for Goff. And this is the NFL, where teams often follow horrible efforts with performances that are much more inspired. Dan Campbell, if nothing else, is an intense guy who may be a little anxious about his job right now. Keep in mind that Goff has a chip on his shoulder toward the Rams and coach Sean McVay. If he’s got a “best” in him, this would be the spot. And there is that “back door” to consider.
Texans at Cardinals Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, October 24 – 4:25 PM ET
ATS Odds: Arizona Cardinals -17.5 (-110) vs. Houston Texans +17.5 (-110)
The Play: TEXANS +17.5 (-110)
Certainly Arizona would have the potential to put a pounding on Houston here. They are the only undefeated team left in the NFL. And needless to say, they have firepower.
But they may not be in the greatest situation in the world here. They’re just coming off a big defensive effort against the Cleveland Browns, holding them to 290 yards. And they have a date four days after this with the Green Bay Packers on the nationally-televised Thursday night game. And in the NFL, 17 points is a pretty big number to cover.
No, Davis Mills is still not ready for prime-time, but he’s started to put up some numbers. There is the possibility that Tyrod Taylor could see some action, as he’s coming off injured reserve. That would mean something, since Taylor has led the team to nine scores (six TD’s and three field goals) on 18 drives.
And Houston does have some ability to run the ball with the likes of Mark Ingram and Philip Lindsay (and don’t forget ex-Cardinal David Johnson, who should be a little primed). The Texans may not have a lot of personnel, but they aren’t going to consistently roll over and play dead under well-liked first-year head coach David Culley, who has really paid his dues.
