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If you took the Los Angeles Rams and laid 16.5 points on the heels of the announcement that Davis Mills and not Tyrod Taylor would be starting at quarterback against them, I have only one word for you.
Sorry.
But never underestimate the ability of the Houston Texans to score 22 garbage points in the fourth quarter.
And I suppose another message here is to never underestimate the ability of a quarterback making his first NFL start to throw for over 400 yards, after hanging around on practice squads for three years (Mike White of the Jets).
That’s the message I just got.
So yeah, anything can happen, no matter how “sharp” we think we are, and that is the lesson we carry with us.
Texans at Dolphins Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 7 – 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Miami Dolphins -6.5 (-115) vs. Houston Texans +6.5 (-105)
The Play: DOLPHINS -6.5 (-115)
Sure, the Dolphins are down after a seventh consecutive loss, and there is speculation surrounding coach Brian Flores and general manager Chris Grier. Interesting psychological dynamic here, as Tua Tagovailoa, despite being told he was the quarterback for the rest of the season (would YOU believe these guys?) may feel more secure now that there is no DeShaun Watson deal. But there’s always the off-season, right?
Tyrod Taylor is listed as “day-to-day,” which means he may or may not start at quarterback. Does that make a difference? Maybe. But let’s face it – Houston’s 22-point outburst only served to sneak in the back door against the Rams. This team is very flawed fundamentally. Not that the Dolphins aren’t. But they’ve been very competitive in many of these defeats, while the Texans have been vanquished by double digits in six of the last seven.
Patriots at Panthers Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 7 – 1 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 41 Points -110 / Under 41 Points -110
The Play: UNDER 41
On the surface, you would think that the Pats, coming off some pretty good efforts, might glide here against a Carolina squad that has sputtered after a slow start. But remember that the Panthers notched their first win without Christian McCaffrey last weekend against Atlanta and its veteran (perhaps Hall of Fame?) quarterback, Matt Ryan.
McCaffrey has been designated to come off injured reserve and play on Sunday, and that would be a help for Sam Darnold, whose numbers have been falling through the floor in recent weeks, to the point where his team has had to play around him. And remember, Bill Belichick is the coach who made him “see ghosts” when he was with the Jets. in three games against Belichick’s defensive schemes, Darnold is a 53% passer with one TD and six interceptions, with a 46.4 passer rating.
But this won’t be any cakewalk for Mac Jones and the Pats’ offense either. Carolina remains the NFL team that has surrendered the least amount of yards on a per-drive basis.
Falcons at Saints Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 7 – 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: New Orleans Saints -6 (-105) vs. Atlanta Falcons +6 (-115)
The Play: SAINTS -6 (-105)
Jameis Winston’s torn ACL left the Saints with Trevor Siemian at quarterback against Tampa Bay, and while that worked out well for them, it’s hardly a solution for the rest of the season. Drew Brees has indicated he won’t come out of retirement, although Philip Rivers says he just might. We don’t have any evidence that either was asked. But the Saints did not make a move at the trade deadline, which leads us to believe Sean Payton has a lot of faith in Taysom Hill.
And why shouldn’t he? Hill was 72% accurate with four TD’s in four starts last season and ran for 209 yards. We have confidence that he can make the plays.
Atlanta is only middle-of-the-pack as far as stopping the run (4.4 ypc allowed) and they permitted Carolina, without Christian McCaffrey, to top 200 yards. Matt Ryan does have a viable option in rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, but Calvin Ridley’s departure – for whatever reason – kills a wide receiver group that had already lost Julio Jones in the off-season. Note that New Orleans sacked Ryan eleven times in two meetings last season.
Chargers at Eagles Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 7 – 4:05 PM ET
ATS Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -2 (-110) vs. Philadelphia Eagles +2 (-110)
The Play: EAGLES +2 (-110)
This would, on the surface, look like a short number to some. But be careful; the Eagles, even without Miles Sanders, were able to utterly dominate things on the ground against Detroit last week, rambling for 236 yards on a 74%-26% run-pass ratio.
You have to remember that even as they were suffering through a horrific season last year, the Philadelphia offensive line could still open holes for the run. And then you add what Jalen Hurts can do with his legs. This year they’re at five yards a carry. And the Chargers, unless they cheat a lot with their two-deep safety set, are going to be vulnerable to a ground attack (allowing league-worst 5.1 ypc).
Bills at Jaguars Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, November 7 – 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Buffalo Bills -14.5 (-110) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +14.5 (-110)
The Play: BILLS -14.5 (-110)
The Jags have lost six times, and on three occasions it’s been by a margin that’s more than this number. And did you realize that Buffalo’s last twelve wins have been by double digits?
And did you know that Josh Allen has never thrown an interception in the red zone in a regular season game?
Jacksonville had almost nothing when they went to Seattle. Trevor Lawrence had to air it out 54 times. Meanwhile, the Bills are, according to drive stat numbers from analytics site Football Outsiders, the #2 offensive team and #1 defensive team in points per drive.
Oh, and on top of that, they made sure they scored a very late touchdown against Miami just to cover the spread. Lay it.
