NFL Winning Margin Betting Explained

We’re going to explain how to bet on NFL winning margins. In the NFL, you can bet on a team’s winning margin. You need to predict the winner of the game and how many points that team will win by.

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NFL bettors won’t need to predict the exact winning margin, though. Instead, sportsbooks will release a range of winning margins. For example, you can bet on a team to win by 1-6 points or 13-18 points.

Like a lot of other NFL alternative betting markets, the winning margin market will have higher juice than a standard NFL wager. While that means the market is more difficult to profit from over the long-term, there are still situations where NFL winning margin bets are worth wagering on.

NFL Winning Margin Bet Example

Here’s an example of an NFL winning margin bet from a Bengals vs. Brown game:

Bengals Winning Margin: 1-6 (+310), 7-12 (+475), 13-18 (+750), 19-24 (+1300), 25-30 (+2200), 31-36 (+4000), 37-42 (+7000) and 43+ (+9000).

Browns Winning Margin: 1-6 (+350), 7-12 (+550), 13-18 (+1000), 19-24 (+1700), 25-30 (+4000), 31-36 (+6000), 37-42 (+9000) and 43+ (+10000).

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If you bet on the Bengals winning margin of 7-12 (+475), the bet will win if the Bengals win the game by 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12 points. If the Bengals win by any other amount of points or lose, the bet will also lose.

There are a wide range of NFL winning margins, but most can be ignored. Big NFL blowouts are rare and I don’t recommend betting on a team to win by a huge winning margin.

During the 2022 regular season, the Eagles had the best average scoring margin (+9.3). The Colts and Bears had the worst (-8.1). On average, teams aren’t consistently winning or losing by a lot of points.

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NFL Winning Margin Betting Strategy

When it comes to NFL winning margin bets, focusing on the 1-6 points range is ideal. I only bet on this market when I expect a team to win a close game. Using our example above, the Bengals are favored against the Bengals. The point spread odds are Bengals -2.5 (-110) vs. Browns +2.5 (-110).

If we expect the Begnals to win the game, we can bet on them ATS at -2.5 (-110). We’d win $100 on a $110 bet if the bet cashes in. The point spread is the “safer” bet in this situation. If I handicap this game and expect the Bengals to win a tight game, I’ll bet the point spread and winning margin.

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For example, I’ll bet $110 on the Bengals at -2.5 to win $100. I’ll also bet $50 on the Bengals to win by 1-6 points (+350). A $50 bet at +350 odds would pay $175 profit. If the Bengals win, as I expect them to do after handicapping the match-up, we’ll make a profit regardless of how many points they win by.

If the Bengals win by 7+ points, we’ll cash the point spread bet and lose the NFL winning margin bet for a profit of $50. If the Bengals win by 3-6 points, we’ll cash both bets for a profit of $275. If the Bengals win by 1-2 points, we’ll lose the spread bet and win the winning margin bet for a profit of $65.

You may be wondering why I wouldn’t just bet the Bengals -2.5 (-110) for $160 to profit $145. While that’s ok, mixing in the NFL winning margin wager will allow you to potentially make a lot more profit. It also covers us if the Bengals end up only winning the game by 1-2 points, which is definitely a possibility.