NHL Expected Goals (xG) Explained

NHL expected goals (xG) is one of the most popular hockey statistics out there. When it comes to betting on the NHL, xG can also be one of the most helpful statistics to utilize.

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How does xG work in hockey? What is the formula? And how can NHL bettors make the most of xG? Lucky for you, we answer all of those questions below. Let’s get right into it.

How Does NHL Expected Goals Work?

The NHL expected goals metric is used to grade a shot on how likely it is to be a goal. xG considers a multitude of factors and mathematically assigns a value to each shot, representing the probability of that shot becoming a goal.

There are lots of hockey stats and metrics that concern the volume of shots, but not all shots are equal. For example, a team could take a high volume of shots that have a low chance of scoring, while their opponent could take fewer shots with a greater chance of scoring.

Ultimately, NHL expected goals attempts to measure the quality of a shot by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored, using information from similar shots in the past.

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How to Calculate NHL Expected Goals (xG)

The NHL expected goals metric can be presented in two ways. First, it can be displayed as a percentage, which tells us how likely a goal was. Also, it can be a straight value that factors in probability.

Although different statistics companies use slightly different models when it comes to calculating xG, the vast majority of factors remain the same across the board. Here are the key factors that are used to calculate a shot’s xG:

• Shot distance from net
• Times since last game event
• Shot type (slap, wrist, backhand, etc.)
• Speed from previous event
• Shot angle
• Last even before shot (faceoff, hit, etc.)
• Number of opposing players on ice
• East-west ice location of shot
• Man advantage situation
• Time since power play started
• Distance from previous event
• North-south ice location of shot
• Empty net?

Once all of the information is collected, an xG model is used to calculate the value of a shot, based upon similar shots in the past. A small xG value like 0.02/2% represents a low chance of scoring, while a high xG value such a 0.80/80% represents a greater chance of scoring.

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How Can Bettors Utilize NHL Expected Goals

The NHL expected goals metric can give ice hockey bettors an idea of which teams and players possess the greatest offensive threat. Similarly, you can also use xG numbers to find teams and players with low offensive threat.

If a game has two teams with high xG values, betting “over” on the goals total market could be a good idea. At the same time, if a game has two teams with low xG values, betting “under” could be the way to go.

You can also utilize xG stats for betting player props. The over/under goals market is one of the most popular player props available, and you can use NHL expected goals stats to predict whether players will score over/under a certain number of goals.

In truth, NHL expected goals models are beneficial for most hockey betting markets. The next time you decide to bet on hockey, be sure to consider xG in order to support your wagers.

Learn how the NHL Corsi metric and NHL Fenwick metric both work next in our guides to advanced hockey statistics.