PGA Preview: 2020 Tour Championship Odds and Predictions

The Tour Championship is here! The top-thirty players (not 156) are about to tee it up in Atlanta for a purse of $15 million. Dustin Johnson comes in as the lone favorite at +175 ahead of John Rahm at +275. They are the only two players under +500.

Last year’s winner, Rory McIlroy, comes in at +2200 and the 2018 winner – Tiger Woods – is not in the field.

The biggest thing to consider when looking at the Tour Championship is the format. This is not your normal golf tournament as players that have qualified have earned “FedEx points” leading up to the event. Meaning, Dustin Johnson starts ten strokes to the good before the first ball is teed up.

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Here’s how that format breaks down for the first ten players ranked by FedEx Points.

1. Dustin Johnson: -10 (strokes)

2. Jon Rahm: -8

3. Justin Thomas: -7

4. Webb Simpson: -6

5. Collin Morikawa: -5

T-6. Daniel Berger: -4

T-6. Harris English: -4

T-6. Bryson DeChambeau: -4

T-6. Sungjae Im: -4

T-6. Hideki Matsuyama: -4

This type of seeding makes it hard for a surprise winner coming from the back of the pack. However, the top-five or so players should be within striking distance. Those further down the leaderboard will be hoping for major stumbles from the leaders.

One golfer who could make a move is Daniel Berger who has been in amazing form.

Here are the favorites to win the 2020 PGA Tour Championship:

Dustin Johnson +175

Jon Rahm +275

Justin Thomas +550

Webb Simpson +1000

Collin Morikawa +2000

PGA Tour Championship Preview 2020

Where: Atlanta, GA

Course: East Lake Golf Club

Par: 70 (PGA)

Length: 7,385

When: Sept 4 – 7, 2020

Purse: $15 million

TV Coverage: Golf Channel/NBC

East Lake is known as being a classic course with tight fairways that open up into targeted landing areas. A combination of accurate tee shots and wedges will be needed just to set up a decent putt. According to reports, roughs will be medium to high with tight pin placements.

The course, made famous by Bobby Jones, has been the permanent home for the Tour Championship since 1994 and was designed by Tom Bendelow in 1908. It was redesigned by Donald Ross and then purchased by Rees Jones who modernized it, repaired it, and put it back on the PGA TOUR. It plays a solid par 70 at 7,385 yards with several narrow fairways and thick rough.

Dustin Johnson +175

It’s hard to get past the season that Dustin Johnson has had coming into the Tour Championship. He’s the top of the board for the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) as well as the leader in FedEx points. He will have to have a horrible tournament to surrender ten strokes to players further down the FedEx points list.

Justin Thomas +550

Justin Thomas was one stroke away from being the winner of this event in 2017 and his game seems to be as strong as it has ever been. He has three wins this season and is ranked third in FedEx points and third on the OWGR. Thomas can take advantage of any mistakes by Johnson with solid approach and wedge play.

Bryson DeChambeau +5500

Bryson DeChambeau will have to make sure his driver is accurate to stay close to the top of the leaderboard in Atlanta. He starts -4 in strokes along with Daniel Berger, Harris English, Sungjae, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Others I Like

Webb Simpson and Collin Morikawa – This format makes it tough to look at players down the FedEx points list. That explains the jump from Johnson at +175 to +2800 Hideki Matsuyama only ten spots on the favorites list back. Webb Simpson (+1000) and Collin Morikawa (+2000) are entering the tournament at -6 and -5 strokes respectively. A few well-timed birdies could bring them close if the leaders run into trouble.

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2020 Tour Championship Odds

Dustin Johnson +175

Jon Rahm +275

Justin Thomas +550

Webb Simpson +1000

Collin Morikawa +2000

Bryson DeChambeau +2200

Rory McIlroy +2200

Daniel Berger +2500

Xander Schauffele +2500

Hideki Matsuyama +2800

Harris English +4500

Tony Finau +5000

Patrick Reed +5000

Scottie Scheffler +8000

Brendon Todd +8000

Sungjae Im +8000

Tyrrell Hatton +10000

Sebastian Munoz +12500

Joaquin Niemann +15000

Kevin Kisner +15000

Viktor Hovland +15000

Abraham Ancer +20000

Billy Horschel +20000

Ryan Palmer +25000

Lanto Griffin +30000

Mackenzie Hughes +30000

Cameron Smith +30000

Kevin Na +35000

Cameron Champ +35000

Marc Leishman +50000