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The Super Bowl LV matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers isn’t just all about Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. It’s about two of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL. It’s a matchup that screams over, but the public loves overs and favorites.
2021 NFL Super Bowl Sportsbooks
Here’s a look at how you can maximize your profits betting on Super Bowl LV.
Super Bowl LV Game Total Picks
The highest closing total came in Super Bowl LI when the Over-Under was set at 57. Brady was involved in that one as the quarterback of the New England Patriots. Brady led the Patriots to a 34-28 victory over Atlanta as the Over cashed.
Historically, it’s an even 27-27 Over-Under, but recent history would suggest a lean toward the over. The past two Super Bowls have actually seen the Under hit, but in Super Bowls XLVII through LII the Over went 5-1.
The final score in the last 12 Super Bowls has dipped below 50 points just three times. The average total of the last nine Super Bowls over 50 is 56.9 points.
Keep an eye on this game total. It’s currently at 56. With two offenses that have averaged right around 30 points per game, the Over is the best play. Tampa Bay has scored at least 30 points in each of its last six games and the Over is 4-2 in both the Chiefs and Bucs last six games.
Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Lines
Super Bowl LV First Half Total Picks
In 14 of the 18 games they have played thus far this season, the Chiefs have scored 13 points or more in the first half. Seven times they have scored 20 or more points in the first half as they did last week in their AFC title game win over Buffalo when they put up 21.
It’s a similar deal with Tampa Bay. Minus a scoreless first half against Atlanta, the Bucs have scored double figures in all of their last six games. Like the Chiefs, Brady and the Bucs offense put up 21 points in the first half of Sunday’s win over Green Bay.
With the first half total set at 27.5, again the over is the play. You know Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will pull out his trick play first and both teams have the ability to strike quickly.
Super Bowl Over/Under Predictions
Super Bowl LV First Quarter Total Picks
Despite playing the over on the game total and the first half total, the best bet on the first quarter total is the under. First off, it’s priced right at +105.
Kansas City has had a rough time getting started in each of its last seven games. In two of its last three, the Chiefs didn’t score in the first quarter. It’s a similar predicament for Tampa Bay. The Bucs didn’t score in the first quarter in three of their past five games.
Chiefs and Buccaneers Team Totals
The Bucs are priced at -120 on the over or Under 27.5. Having scored at least 30 points in their last six games and averaged 30.7 points a game for the season, we’ll play the Over. Brady and company will need to keep pace with Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Kansas City averaged 29.6 points a game this season and everyone knows their offense is explosive. The Chiefs will be down at least one starting offensive lineman – OT Eric Fisher (Achilles) – which could affect production.
But, with under 30.5 priced at -125, we’ll roll with the Chiefs going Over their team total of 30.5 at -115. No matter who plays up front, Reid will dial up plenty of points on Super Bowl Sunday.
New to betting? Read our Super Bowl betting guide for beginners.
