Tips and Strategies for Betting on NFL Win Totals

Betting on NFL season win totals is not new. Bettors have been placing wagers in this market for many years. The popularity of the bet has risen in recent years and continues to grow especially among serious bettors.

Like any futures bet, there are pros and cons, but betting on season win totals is another tool in the arsenal of the NFL bettor looking to come out ahead for the season. One perk of this wager is it’s a lot easier to win than a bet on the Super Bowl winner.

What a bettor – whether casual or experienced – should not do is haphazardly make season win total picks. Like any wager, research and analysis is necessary to make a sound betting decision.

How It Works

One of the advantages to betting on NFL season win totals is that the bet is pretty easy to understand. Take the following example from a past NFL season.

Buffalo Wins: 6

OVER: -155

UNDER: +125

In this example, if you believe the Bills will win more than six games, you would have to wager $155 to win $100. Betting on Buffalo to win fewer than six games, you would win $125 on a $100 bet. If the Bills won exactly six games, the result would be a push.

Look at Past Seasons

To begin your analysis, it helps to take a look at previous seasons. Some teams have consistently won double-digit games over the past few seasons. With little changes in the roster, it would make sense that a team like that could win 10 or more games again.

Monitor the Offseason

The offseason can greatly affect NFL rosters. Free agency has a huge impact on NFL teams that are able to get heavily involved. Some teams may lose a superstar or a starter or two while other teams reap the benefits of signing a star quarterback and an All-Pro pass rusher.

You also have to study the NFL Draft every year to see where teams have been able to fill holes.

All of the various moves in an offseason will have some sort of impact on the following season. Think of all the times a team signs a big-name quarterback or wide receiver in the offseason. Those types of moves usually result in an extra win or two (or even more).

Timing

Because of those offseason moves, bettors should consider when to pull the trigger on a bet. Timing is key when wagering on NFL season win totals.

There are both pros and cons to betting early or waiting until just before a season starts and betting late. Early lines may offer more value since sportsbooks have limited information. As the offseason progresses, books will gain more valuable information.

Bettors will have access to the same data. What bettors have to watch are the changes in lines that will occur as sportsbooks respond to changes in the market. When that star quarterback signs with a certain team, the team’s win total could change, Over/Under odds could change, or both.

Strength of Schedule

One of the key factors that can give a bettor more insight into an NFL team’s season win total is its strength of schedule. A strong team playing in a weak division can often count on five or six wins just from its division games alone.

Another element of concern is a schedule that features multiple games against playoff-caliber teams. What if those games are on the road? Bettors can also look at a schedule and determine whether or not teams will have a rest advantage coming into certain games.

All of these and more can be examined before making a sound betting decision on NFL season win totals.