Tips for Betting on NFL Teams to Make the Playoffs

There are a growing number of NFL futures betting markets available at betting sites, but one market that has been around for a long time is betting on NFL teams to make the playoffs or miss the playoffs.

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NFL “To Make the Playoffs” Betting Explained

Before jumping into tips for winning this wager, we’re going to explain the bet with an example.

Here’s an example of the “to make the playoffs” futures bet:

Example: Baltimore Ravens to Make the Playoffs – Yes (-165) or No (+145)

The bet is really simple. You can bet on a team to either make or miss the NFL playoffs. Bettors on “yes” will cash if the Ravens make the playoffs and bets on “no” cash if they miss the playoffs.

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NFL “To Make the Playoffs” Betting Strategy

Here are some tips and strategies for betting on this NFL futures market:

Track NFL Depth Charts

You need to track player movement during the NFL off-season. Whether it’s a big player on the move or a superstar retiring, you need to stay informed on the depth charts for every NFL team.

Things change fast in the NFL. A great offensive line can be decimated in a single offseason. A team’s top WR can leave and the offense ends up being a disaster the following season.

Analyze NFL Statistics

More often than not, an NFL team won’t have a ton of turnover on a season-to-season basis. You should analyze how a team performed the season prior. Basic stats are fine to look at, but you need to dig deep into advanced statistics to get meaningful data that can help you make NFL futures predictions.

Study the Division

Let’s say you’re considering betting on the Bills to make the playoffs. You need to spend time analyzing all of the teams in the AFC East and even the other teams in the conference.

Some NFL divisions are more competitive than others. For instance, the NFC East is notoriously tough to predict the winner of the division any given season. When betting on NFL teams to make the playoffs, it’s often best to wager on teams that have a high percentage chance to win their division.

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Don’t Let the Odds on Favorites Deter You

The favorites in this market are going to have odds around -400 to -450. At -450 odds, you need to bet $450 for every $100 in profit you want to make. I’d never recommend betting a -450 favorite to win a single NFL game, but you need to look at these futures bets as investments.

There’s a lot less variance with futures bets when compared to single game wagers.

At -450 odds, a $1000 bet would turn a profit of just over $222. That’s a 22.2% return on investment and when you consider that your money is only invested during the NFL regular season (September to early January), you’re potentially getting an annualized ROI of over 70%.

Hunt Down Value

While the odds on big favorites shouldn’t deter you, as they’re often the best bets for this market, you can also hunt down value. Take 2022 for example, four of the 13 teams to make the playoffs paid plus money in this market and two of them were ranked in the top 5 for the worst odds to make the playoffs.

The Jaguars (+450) won the AFC South, which earned them a spot in the playoffs and the Seahawks (+540) earned a wild card spot to make the playoffs in 2022. Since 2020, there have been 14 teams that make the NFL playoffs, so there’s always the potential for some teams to upset the odds.