Tips for Identifying UFC Underdogs to Bet On

The UFC is a great sport for value bettors targeting underdogs at plus money odds. Underdogs win all of the time in the UFC. We’re going to share our best tips for identifying UFC underdogs to bet on.

UFC Betting Sites

One benefit of focusing on underdogs when betting on the UFC is that you can be profitable with a lower win percentage. If your average UFC bet is at -300 odds, you need to win 75% of your bets to breakeven, but if your average UFC bet is at +150 odds, you only need to win 40% of your bets to breakeven.

Follow these UFC betting tips to hunt down underdogs offering the best value:

Fighting Styles Can Win Fights

The first thing I look at when handicapping fights is each fighter’s style. In many cases, this won’t result in finding valuable underdogs, but it will in some cases. For example, an excellent wrestler fighting against an opponent with KO power that struggles to stop takedowns can end up being a live underdog.

Another situation to look out for are favorites with questionable chins going up against an opponent that has a lot of power. All it takes is one shot with the right timing to end the fight.

How to Bet on the UFC

Study the Resume of Both Fighters

Always spend time studying both fighters. Recent performances are critical. Fighters can be streaky as well. How many consecutive wins does each fighter have? How have they been winning? Will they be stepping up in competition? These are questions you should answer when hunting for UFC underdogs.

Look for common opponents as well. Is the underdog coming off a recent win against an opponent that the favorite lost to previously? If so, dig into the fights and see what happened in them.

Target Underrated Fighters

What I mean by this is, you should consider targeting fighters moving up in competition that are getting no respect from the betting public or fighters that are new to the UFC. The UFC will often pit a veteran with some name recognition against a newcomer to build that fighter’s resume up.

Find Fighters Declining in Form

It often takes the betting public some time to adjust to UFC veterans declining. A lot of bettors simply bet off name recognition. However, as fighters age, they begin to decline. A 35-year-old veteran will still draw in public money, but they’re often up against younger prospects who can cash in as underdogs.

What Is Round Betting in the UFC?

Striking Is the Most Important Stat

In the UFC, over 70% of fights are won by the fighter with the better career striking stats. This information is extremely helpful for UFC bettors. Look at the striking stats for every fight and identify the fights where the underdog has the better striking stats. These fights are worth looking into more.

Don’t Get Greedy

It’s tempting to jump on underdogs paying +500 odds or higher due to the potential payout, but historically in the UFC, the best underdogs to bet on are priced between +100 and +150 odds. This makes sense, as a +150 underdog isn’t really a mismatch, but bettors often love to target the highest paying underdogs.