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One of the toughest things to do at the start of a new college football season is determining how a rookie (first year) QB will perform, as there isn’t any college football data to analyze.
The first thing to look at is whether or not the QB is a true freshman.
A true freshman QB is tougher to handicap because they haven’t been with the program long. A QB that has redshirted will have a year of practice under their belt to learn the system, which is a big boost.
Here are five tips for handicapping first year starting QBs in college football.
Study the Film
Anyone can access lots of film on QBs. The best place to start is on YouTube.
The top QB prospects will have highschool film available to analyze, which can allow handicappers to see how a QB performs under pressure. There are also CFB Spring Games, elite camps and practice.
Studying the film will assist you in analyzing the style of play the QB utilizes most frequently.
College Football Program System
The next tip is to determine whether the system is a good fit for the first year QB.
A QB that likes to tuck the football and run is likely going to have some growing pains if they’re on a team that values a pass-first offense. This can impact how they perform out of the gate.
A QB that played in a similar system in highschool to what they’re going to be playing in college will often perform better, as they already have experience with the plays they’ll be expected to run.
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Coaches
It’s also important to analyze the coaches in the program. Are they the type of coach to let the first year QB go and air it out or will they have a conservative game plan early in the season?
Another thing to look at is how established the coaches are. Do they have experience with first year QBs and have rookie QBs excelled under them? Great coaching can make a huge difference in CFB.
Skill Position Players
You can be an NFL-caliber QB, but if you don’t have weapons in the pass game, it’s tough to score points on a consistent basis. It’s important to analyze the skill position players at the college football program.
Will the first year QB have multiple veterans with a good track record at WR and/or TE? This can make a huge difference in how a rookie QB will start out of the gate in college football.
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Team Schedule
The schedule is important to analyze. In many cases, the top CFB teams will have a game or two to start the season against cupcake opponents, but that’s not always the case.
If a first year QB has a couple games against inferior competition, that can allow them to get comfortable and meet expectations. However, if the SOS is difficult early on, a first year QB will often struggle.
