Top Five NFL Player Props Picks for Monday Night Football Week 12

The Seattle Seahawks (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) are fading, and the only thing has kept them afloat is the fact that there are three wild card teams this season in each conference. I mean, the New York Giants are still in the race; that should give you an indication of how wide-open things are.

And yes, the Washington Football Team (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS), which may someday decide to get a nickname (personally, I like the Kickbacks, but not enough people are on board with me) is still in the thick of things.

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And to think it happened without FitzMagic is truly mind-boggling.

Meanwhile, we really can’t be sure if we are ever going to see the real Russell Wilson again.

Read our Seahawks vs. WFT betting preview for week 12.

Russell Wilson Props Picks for Week 12

Best Bet: RUSSELL WILSON UNDER 248.5 PASSING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-114) / Under 248.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The story that is probably the most plausible is that Wilson broke his finger, shouldn’t have come back so soon, but did so because his team risked sliding out of the playoff race. And well, the results have been just as bad upon his return.

In terms of the numbers, he has completed 51.5% (34 of 66) in the last two games, with 5.6 yards per attempt and seven sacks, and that’s just not like him. He does have an average Intended Air Yards of 9.9 per attempt, but you know, that can kind of work in reverse when you’re not throwing it right, or something is affecting you. Does that make sense?

Wilson topped this total in his first three games of the season, but not in the last three full games he has played.

NFL MNF Odds

Taylor Heinicke Props Picks for Week 12

Best Bet: TAYLOR HEINICKE OVER 245.5 PASSING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-114) / Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-114)

As mediocre as Wilson’s numbers have been in the last two games, that’s how good Heinicke has been, with 78% completions (42 of 54) and 462 yards with four TD passes. Oh, and NO interceptions. But that’s not the sole reason why we would recommend this number.

Seattle has kind of an unusual statistical situation on defense. They are allowing more passing yards per game than any other team. And they are 30th in the league in yards allowed per drive. Yet they are tenth in POINTS allowed per drive, and by another metric, they are second best in the NFL as they surrender 19.2 yards for every points that is scored against them. They are the definition of “bend-not-break.” So you can actually like Seattle in the game and still wager on the “over” with Heinicke.

Antonio Gibson Props Picks for Week 12

Best Bet: ANTONIO GIBSON OVER 67.5 RUSHING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114) / Under 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

We could apply the same principle as we did with Heinicke above. Seattle is 32nd in pass yards allowed, but also 23rd in rush yards allowed. So they simply “allow,” period.

Washington actually gets a pretty good run burst out of the offensive line. According to the metrics compiled by the analytics site Football Outsiders, they are first in “Power Rank” for run blocking and seventh best in “Stuff Rate.”

The WFT (not to be confused with the WTF, mind you) has been trending upward in terms of its rushing play percentage, with 48% plays run on the ground over the last three games. You can win both the Heinicke and Gibson props, but I think there is very little chance of losing both.

NFL MNF Predictions

Logan Thomas Props Picks for Week 12

Best Bet: LOGAN THOMAS OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS

MNF Props Odds: Over 3.5 Receptions (+100) / Under 3.5 Receptions (-130)

Seattle hasn’t been a tragic defense against tight ends, but they haven’t been outstanding either. They have surrendered 77% completions and seven yards an attempt. Also, they have given up 5.8 receptions and 52.7 yards to the tight end position on a per-game basis.

Those numbers open the door for Thomas, the former Virginia Tech quarterback who has just come off injured reserve. Last season he caught 72 passes; this year he has, for all intents and purposes, been in three games, with 12 catches good for 117 yards.

He represents Washington’s production at the tight end spot, with the limited productivity of John Bates and the hip flex or injury sustained by Ricky Seals-Jones.

Tyler Lockett Props Picks for Week 12

Best Bet: TYLER LOCKETT OVER 66.5 RECEIVING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114) / Under 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Remember that Washington is 30th in the league when it comes to giving up passing yardage. So their secondary isn’t exactly equipped to blanket two speedy and dangerous wide receivers. DK Metcalf may be more dangerous and may be the guy who gets more attention.

So maybe Lockett gets free. The WFT has really been in “WTF” mode when it comes to covering the other team’s #2 wideout, ranked one rung from the bottom, and Wilson loves to throw the ball far down the field. It wouldn’t take too many completions for a guy averaging 15.2 yards to get there. Metcalf has eight TD’s, so Lockett may be the lucky #2.

Read our NFL player props betting guide and NFL touchdown scorer props betting guide.