Top Five NFL Player Props Picks for Monday Night Football Week 15

A little upheaval in the NFL this week, wasn’t there? A few games shifted around from one day to another. And a lot of unexpected results on Sunday; let’s face it.

You can’t tell the players without a COVID scorecard, so some things may change between the time we write this and the time the game kicks off, but we can tell you that the NFC North encounter between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears is going off right on time (8:15 PM ET).

NFL Bookies

The Browns and Raiders are also playing – with an earlier kickoff – but this is the REAL Monday Night Football game, although it was reported that the Bears were trying to get it pushed back because they were putting some additional players into their COVID protocol.

Read our Vikings vs. Bears preview for MNF week 15. We also have an in-depth Raiders vs. Browns preview for the game this evening with a free pick.

Justin Fields Props Picks for Week 15

Best Bet: LONGEST COMPLETION OVER 34.5 YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 34.5 Yards (-120) / Under 34.5 Yards (-110)

I’m not sure about the ability of Justin Fields to be an outstanding quarterback in the long term, but one has to acknowledge that he is making progress (yes, despite his two picks against the Packers last time out).

What makes an impression upon me as far as this prop is concerned is that he remains the only starting quarterback in the NFL who averages at least ten Intended Air Yards per pass attempt. He also averages 7.4 air yards per completion, and that is tops in the league.

So he is inconsistent, which is something one can totally expect out of a rookie, but he dares to throw the ball down the field, and when he connects, it could probably go far. He obviously has to avoid the sack (Minnesota has the second-highest sack percentage in the league), but he’s not facing the sharpest secondary in the NFL. So there is the possibility of a sizable play here and there.

NFL Odds

Kirk Cousins Props Picks for Week 15

Best Bet: OVER 262.5 PASSING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 262.5 Yards (-115) / Under 262.5 Yards (-115)

Okay, this season Cousins is averaging 274.5 yards per game. And he has topped this posted figure seven times in 13 games. Whether that is so critical in the oddsmakers coming up with this figure is not known. But it’s a factor.

What would seem to be obvious is that Cousins can keep his jersey clean, as he’s suffered just 18 sacks. That’s important because Chicago happens to be the one team with a higher sack rate than the Vikings. The weather will be cold but won’t have a lot of “elements,” and perhaps most significantly, COVID has apparently robbed the Bears of their entire secondary.

That’s right; Jaylon Johnson, Tashaun Gipson, Artie Burns and Eddie Jackson are all on the COVID list.

If you want to advocate against Cousins, you might say that he has that notoriously bad record in prime-time games (just 9-17 SU). But putting together impressive numbers, even if it’s in a losing cause, is something he’s no stranger to.

David Montgomery Props Picks for Week 15

Best Bet: OVER 58.5 RUSHING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 58.5 Yards (-115) / Under 58.5 Yards (-115)

Well, Montgomery has often been the workmanlike guy who is the best Chicago has to offer on the offensive side. In this instance, I can’t imagine that the Bears are going to proceed in this game without trying to establish the run, although a coaching “tweak,” which might see John DeFilippo assume an offensive coordinator’s role in place of Bill Lazor, who is in the protocol, might have some effect on that.

In the metric of “Adjusted Line Yards,” the Vikings’ defensive line is dead last against the run, as is their “stuff rate,” which measures the percentage of opponents’ rushing plays they stop for a loss or no gain (9%, which is very low).

NFL Predictions

Darnell Mooney Props Picks for Week 15

Best Bet: OVER 52.5 RECEIVING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 52.5 Yards (-120) / Under 52.5 Yards (-110)

There are plenty of Bears fans who believe that Mooney is wasting his talent in the Windy City. Maybe they’re right; after back-to-back efforts of 121 yards against Baltimore and 123 against Detroit, he’s been targeted twelve times with just 46 receiving yards in the last two games.

So yeah, you’re rolling the dice, like everything else in life. But with Allen Robinson (not having a banner season) not likely to play, and Marquise Goodwin doubtful, Mooney may be the whole ballgame as far as Fields’ efforts to get the ball down the field.

Justin Jefferson Props Picks for Week 15

Best Bet: OVER 96.5 RECEIVING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 96.5 Yards (-115) / Under 96.5 Yards (-115)

Remember what we said about that Bears secondary having all the starters out. They have about ten or eleven guys who won’t be available on that side of the ball, and that includes Akiem Hicks, who is questionable. Khalil Mack hasn’t been available for a while, as he’s having surgery. And this was not a fearsome unit to begin with.

Adam Thielen may or may not be able to come back from his ankle injury tonight. But Justin Jefferson is the guy with the most talent to exploit the Bears’ absences to the fullest. That he has topped 100 yards five times doesn’t tell the full story. He is not easily covered, even by healthy secondaries; Pro Football Focus has Jefferson with its third-highest overall receiver grade, behind only Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp.