Top Five NFL Player Props Picks for Monday Night Football Week 16

Underestimate the Miami Dolphins at your own peril.

That sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? Pretty threatening?

The truth is, the Dolphins do deserve a lot of credit for winning six games in a row and putting themselves in the playoff race. And they did take what was a very good Baltimore offense and reduce it to nothing, writing a blueprint that some other opponents have followed.

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But the other victims on Miami’s list during this current winning streak are the likes of Houston, Carolina, the Giants, and the Jets (twice). In other words, offenses that are “challenged.”

But hey, the New Orleans Saints fall into that category too. Because COVID KO’s Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill, the Saints will have to start Ian Book at quarterback. The Notre Dame alum has never been in a regular season game. They are also missing arguably their best wide receiver (Deonte Harris) and Pro Bowl right tackle (Ryan Ramczyk). So they have a potential struggle ahead of them.

But the Saints also hung a goose egg on the Tampa Bay Bucs last week. That defense is no joke.

Read our Dolphins vs. Saints betting preview for week 16 after you finish checking out these NFL player props.

Ian Book Props Picks for Week 16

Best Bet: OVER 27.5 RUSHING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 27.5 Yards (-114) / Under 27.5 Yards (-114)

Book is going to wind up being confused by all the Miami blitzes. And who wouldn’t be, if he was playing in his first NFL game and had only one half of one preseason game under his belt.

So Sean Payton, who has been working programmed quarterback runs into his game plan, might be doing the same thing for Book. He is not as proficient running with the ball as Hill, but he wasn’t bad in college either. In his last two seasons at Notre Dame, he ran for 586 and 485 yards.

So in the interest of simplicity, this may be one way to go in order to move the football.

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Tua Tagovailoa Props Picks for Week 16

Best Bet: LONGEST COMPLETION OVER 34.5 YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 34.5 Yards (-120) / Under 34.5 Yards (-110)

If you have watched the Dolphins at all, you know that Tua, in order to compensate for a very bad offensive line, has had to get rid of the ball quickly. The fact that he has been sacked only 13 times is kind of miraculous, in fact.

He averages a very modest 7.1 yards per pass attempt. But what you may not have known is that Tua averages 20.1 yards per attempt on passes that go 20-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage. And that figure currently leads the NFL. So do not disqualify him from being able to uncork a couple.

Alvin Kamara Props Picks for Week 16

Best Bet: OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 27.5 Yards (-114) / Under 27.5 Yards (-114)

It would make sense if the Saints would try to run the ball; with a 47.6% rushing play percentage, they are fourth in the league in that category. But there is also something to be said for “long handoffs” as well.

Remember that Miami leads the NFL with 110 quarterback “hits.” And over the course of his career, Kamara is among the NFL’s best running backs at catching the ball and doing something with it.

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Marquez Callaway Props Picks for Week 16

Best Bet: UNDER 34.5 RECEIVING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 34.5 Yards (-114) / Under 34.5 Yards (-114)

As you probably know, Deonte Harris (who is listed as the #6-graded wide receiver in the NFL as per Pro Football Focus) is out, as he is serving a suspension and on top of that has been flagged with COVID.

So if I were compiling the defensive game plan for the Dolphins, I would be looking to take somebody like Callaway from the picture. He has one of the two (yes, just TWO) 100-yard games out of New Orleans wide receivers this season, and is averaging 15.4 yards a catch.

He also has just a 52.9% connection rate with his quarterbacks, which is very low. It probably takes more time for him to get into his downfield routes. Will Ian Book have that kind of time?

Jaylen Waddle Props Picks for Week 16

Best Bet: UNDER 63.5 RECEIVING YARDS

MNF Props Odds: Over 63.5 Yards (-114) / Under 63.5 Yards (-114)

Tua’s former teammate at Alabama is having a season that might be ignored by rookie of the year voters, but it’s quite possible he’s going to top the 100-mark in receptions. He’s got 86 so far, on a 75.4% catch rate.

But it’s interesting – Tua may have to find him a lot. Waddle is the only receiver among the top 40 in the NFL (in receiving yards) who has averaged fewer than ten yards per reception. And he’s got only six plays that have gone for 20+ yards. That puts him tied for 71st in the league.

Read our NFL anytime touchdown scorer betting guide to learn more about betting player props.