In a game in which we would not be surprised if the indoor air was filled with footballs, we have a couple of the best going at it in the state-of-the-art SoFi Stadium.
Derek Carr was leading the NFL in passing yardage going into the weekend’s action, and he has the Las Vegas Raiders off to a 3-0 start. Of course, we know that Jon Gruden often starts fast, only to end badly. So it’s “wait and see” with this team.
Brandon Staley has the Los Angeles Chargers at 2-1, and that has happened with offense, which has gained more yards per drive than anybody. That might come as a surprise to some because he is known as a young defensive guru.
So these are some things to consider as we present the best NFL player props picks for tonight.
Read our complete Raiders vs. Chargers betting preview.
Derek Carr Props Picks: Over 281.5 Passing Yards
MNF Props Odds: Over 281.5 Yards (-110) / Under 281.5 Yards (-115)
It’s somewhat difficult to gauge here, since we aren’t – at this hour – certain about the status of Josh Jacobs, who might be able to find some headway against a Charger defense that does invite opponents to run.
Carr, at some point in the evening, will probably leapfrog everybody to regain the NFL lead in passing yards. He has done this while ranking sixth in the league in Intended Air Yards, while his receivers have averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch per completion.
In other words, Carr will have to get the ball down the field a little.
And that is what Brandon Staley designs his defenses to prevent. So expect the Bolts to take away big plays, while at the same time allow smaller gains underneath.
The question is whether those small gains – the accumulation of such – is enough to drop this guy more than 100 yards below his season average, which right now is 401 yards?
If what he is doing represents a significant change in the way the Raiders’ offense is going to operate, then the answer to that would be “no.” They are throwing the ball 64% of the time.
Austin Ekeler Props Picks: Under 58.5 Rushing Yards
MNF Props Odds: Over 58.5 Yards (-118) / Under 58.5 Yards (-110)
I love talking about Austin Ekeler because it gives me a chance to mention Western State University, which sounds like one of those generic schools they just make up if it’s part of a movie plot.
He’s only averaged a little over 30 yards per game against the Raiders, with combined rushing and receiving taken into account.
He could be utilized here, but perhaps more as a receiver, where he has contributed 113 yards and a catch rate of 100% over the last two games.
Darren Waller Props Picks: Over 5.5 Receptions
MNF Props Odds: Over 5.5 Receptions (-155) / Under 5.5 Receptions (+115)
In the season opener against Baltimore, Waller was targeted NINETEEN times. Such is the level of confidence Derek Carr and Jon Gruden have in the Pro Bowl tight end.
And on those days when the defense was concentrating their efforts on him, he still got five catches.
He is not often shut down, which is why we’re willing to take a chance laying this price. Carr may be faced with situations where he’ll have to find someone underneath.
Mike Williams Props Picks: Anytime Touchdown Scorer
MNF Props Odds: -110 to Score TD
Mike Williams has been a 72% accurate connection with Justin Herbert this season. He has also proven to be quite the reliable red zone outlet, with five catches and four for touchdowns.
Because of the extremely reliable Keenan Allen on the other side, defenses have a difficult time focusing their coverage on either of them.
Keenan Allen Props Picks: Over 82.5 Receiving Yards
MNF Props Odds: Over 82.5 Yards (-115) / Under 82.5 Yards (-115)
Since Justin Herbert arrived as the starting quarterback, Allen, a four-time Pro Bowl selection,has been targeted ten or more times in 12 of 16 games in which he has played, topping the 100-yard mark seven times. All indications are that he will have every opportunity to make his numbers.
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