Top Five NFL Player Props Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6

It is very difficult to find a set of objective criteria that doesn’t have the Buffalo Bills as the #1 or #2 team in the National Football League, and that’s even with a loss in the opening game.

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What we find intriguing is that while last season the Bills were carried by offense, which fetched a lot of the salary cap and overcame a defense that was so-so at times, this year the stop unit is clearly the story, as Buffalo has allowed just 1.06 points for every possession their opponents have had.

Read our in-depth Bills vs. Titans betting preview for tonight’s big game.

Derrick Henry Props Picks: Over 96.5 Rushing Yards

MNF Props Odds: Over 96.5 Yards (-115) /Under 96.5 Yards (-115)

You kind of have to love what Derrick Henry is doing, don’t you? I mean, the guy is just grinding it out, week after week. And of course, he’s doing it at a high level. Henry averages 4.5 yards per carry, and 34 of his 142 carries have produced first downs.

And interestingly enough, three of the five opponents he’s faced are among the top half of the NFL’s teams defending the run, using the metric of yards allowed per carry. Buffalo is right up among the leaders in that category, at 3.7. The Titans have more rushing (8) than passing (6) touchdowns, by the way.

NFL MNF Odds

Ryan Tannehill Props Picks: Under 240.5 Passing Yards

MNF Props Odds: Over 240.5 Yards (-115) / Under 240.5 Yards (-115)

Buffalo has been far and away the NFL’s stingiest team against the pass, when it comes down to total yardage, as they have allowed just 173.4 per game. Next on the list is Carolina at 196.8. That’s a big margin.

No matter how you look at it, they shine. When a team has yielding just five yards per pass attempt in this day and age (orany day and age, for that matter), it’s an outstanding accomplishment. With 14 sacks and 15 turnovers, they have been great at forcing those negative plays, and surrendering just under 23 yards per drive, there’s not a lot of room for a guy like Tannehill to operate.

We can reconcile him underperforming through the air, which will funnel Tennessee’s activity toward the ground attack, where (see above) we are expecting Henry to do some business.

Derrick Henry Props Picks: Over 14.5 Receiving Yards

MNF Props Odds: Over 14.5 Yards (-120) / Under 14.5 Yards (-115)

With just 15 targets in five games, this may seem like a rough proposition.

But if you took receiving all by itself, you might be able to find something with value. For one thing, he is averaging 25 yards a game with receptions. And we imagine Tannehill will have to do his share of checking down as Buffalo does a good job against the wideouts.

NFL MNF Predictions

Josh Allen Props Picks: Under 294.5 Passing Yards

MNF Props Odds: Over 294.5 Yards (-115) / Under 294.5 Yards (-115)

Allen has twelve touchdown passes on the season, and he has made it a point not to let mistakes get him into trouble, with just two interceptions.

It is perhaps interesting that he has averaged 9.7 Intended Air Yards per attempt – second highest in the league – which means he is tossing the ball down the field. Yet at the same time he is averaging just 7.5 yards gained per attempt, which puts him 16th among the league’s QB’s.

His receivers are getting only 4.2 yards per catch after the reception, which is the fourth lowest figure among QB’s with at least 1000 yards.

It should also be pointed out that Buffalo has a much more robust ground game for him to rely on, averaging 140.4 yards as opposed to 104.2 last year. Big difference.

Dawson Know Props Picks: To Score a TD Anytime

MNF Props Odds: +140 to Score a Touchdown

No, maybe this isn’t the greatest price in the world. But Knox, the third-year tight end out of Ole Miss, has been targeted 24 times, and he has five touchdowns. He’s also got 10.9 yards per target, which leads this Buffalo team.

Josh Allen talks of the “supreme trust” he’s got in Knox, and we think he’s going to be the first guy to get a look in red zone situations.

Read our NFL player props betting guide and NFL touchdown scorer props betting guide.