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We looked and looked for player props on New York Giants receiver Kadarius Toney, but alas, we could not find them.
The truth of the matter is that Toney, who has shown flashes of brilliance as a rookie, is expected to play but has been identified as a game-time decision to make post for the New York Giants against the Kansas City Chiefs. He hurt his ankle against the Los Angeles Rams, but to give you an indication of the kind of impact he could have, in the two games before that he had a combined 267 receiving yards against the Saints and Cowboys. And he had 36 yards in receptions in only five minutes against the Rams before having to leave.
He is the kind of playmaker that justifies New York’s first-round selection of him out of the University of Florida. This week he came back to practice, and if it is officially announced that he will play, you’ll see him getting free in the middle of a secondary that cannot cover capable wideouts.
So be on the lookout for some numbers on him as the game approaches.
Patrick Mahomes Props Picks: To Throw an Interception (YES)
MNF Props Odds: To throw an INT +130 / To throw no INT’s -175
Mahomes has had a very interesting season. This year he has turned the ball over eleven times, which is more than he has in either of the last two seasons. He’s also been sacked 14 times. This offensive line has been rebuilt, and you saw an indication in the Super Bowl as to how important that unit can be, as they made it near impossible for their MVP quarterback to be comfortable in the pocket.
But teams don’t blitz Mahomes — in fact, they have pressured him only 10.7% of the time. What defenses do is drop back in coverage with two deep safeties, and try to take big plays away from him. As a result, he’s got to throw shorter. At least to win. But he’s been forcing things, and that’s a problem.
Tyreek Hill Props Picks: Longest Reception Under 24.5 Yards
MNF Props Odds: Over 24.5 Yards -110 / Under 24.5 Yards -120
Obviously Hill is one of the scariest offensive weapons in the NFL. You don’t want him getting free on a deep pass, because he is going to beat most cornerbacks. But in the process of constructing a defensive game plan, most coordinators these days are looking to take the big play away from him. You just saw us allude to that as we talked about Mahomes. Hill will most likely get his catches; he has 52 on the year, as a matter of fact. But he’s averaged only 12.3 yards per reception. So it is essential for the Giants to prevent him from going deep. And they know it.
Evan Engram Props Picks: Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
MNF Props Odds: Over 33.5 Yards -110 / Under 33.5 Yards -115
Engram is another very interesting proposition. He’s missed some time with injuries, which is the custom for him, but he’s not dropping passes as he didn’t in the past. In fact, after a season in which he flubbed eight potential catches, he’s only done that once this season. He’s been hampered a little bit by a calf injury, but he’s going to play here. And he is the subject of trade rumors, as are a couple of the other Giants receivers. But they don’t HAVE to trade him. Maybe this is a showcase, maybe it isn’t. But we suspect he’s going to see a lot of action. And the Chiefs have surrendered more yards per drive than any defense in the NFL.
Daniel Jones Props Picks: Over 22.5 Rushing Yards
MNF Props Odds: Over 22.5 Yards -110 / Under 22.5 Yards -120
Jones has passing figures that are not all that stunning. Last week he went 22 of 33 against Carolina for just 203 yards, and on the year he is only averaging 7.2 yards an attempt, with five touchdowns. What the Chiefs really have to worry about is his ability to break up the play and take It on the run. He has 229 rushing yards to lead the Giants. That is the fourth most among quarterbacks in the NFL. And Kansas City has not done very much to pursue and drag down quarterbacks, registering only eight sacks through seven games.
Patrick Mahomes Props Picks: Over 37.5 Passing Attempts
MNF Props Odds: Over 37.5 Attempts -115 / Under 37.5 Attempts -115
How could you doubt the possibility that Mahomes will take matters almost completely into his own hands? After all, in last week’s game against Tennessee, the Chiefs ran the ball only 15 times, while they threw 51 times. That, and projected over a full season, that would be the highest percentage in the NFL in terms of the pass-run balance (Mahomes had to leave after a head blow, but Chad Henne threw 16 passes in his place).
What compounds matters is that Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t available; without him, the ground game is kind of dead. If you look at the numbers, Kansas City is actually throwing the ball over 71% of the time over the last three games. Mahomes is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, which isn’t big. That indicates that he’ll throw more, for shorter distances, in order to move the chains.
