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Underdogs clearly were on fire in Week 10 as the dogs covered in nine of the 14 games. Washington was the biggest underdog to cover when the Football Team beat Tampa Bay 29-19 as a 9.5-point dog.
Who will it be this week? Here’s a look at the top five NFL Week 11 ATS picks.
Saints vs. Eagles Week 11 Spread
The Saints are a road underdog at 4-6 Philadelphia for one reason – quarterback. Trevor Siemian is the backup that has taken over for the injured Jameis Winston. But, Siemian has played well averaging 275 yards passing in his two starts.
The Eagles rely way too much on the running game. New Orleans has the best run defense in the NFL. Philly QB Jalen Hurts isn’t going to beat the Saints on his own.
The Saints have covered 15 of their last 20 games as the visiting team. They are also 9-0-1 ATS in their last ten games as an underdog. The Eagles are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite.
Best ATS Pick: SAINTS +1.5
Steelers vs. Chargers Week 11 Spread
Minkah Fitzpatrick is out for the Steelers and T.J. Watt is questionable. The Steelers defense could be down a few starters, but QB Ben Roethlisberger could be back.
Regardless, this is a spot where Pittsburgh will thrive for one reason – Najee Harris. The Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL and Harris is going to have a field day. That will allow Pittsburgh to keep the ball away from Chargers QB Justin Herbert and the rest of the LA offense.
Best ATS Pick: STEELERS +5.5
Colts vs. Bills Week 11 Spread
Yes, the Colts have won four of their last five games. The only loss was a three-point defeat to 8-2 Tennessee. However, Indy’s four wins came against four teams that have losing records – Houston, San Francisco, the Jets, and the Jacksonville.
Buffalo recovered from its shocking upset loss to Jacksonville with a 45-17 demolition of the Jets last week. Too many are putting too much stock in the Colts recent success. The Bills defense is built to stop Colts RB Jonathan Taylor which will force QB Carson Wentz to beat the Bills. He won’t.
Best ATS Pick: BILLS -7
Bengals vs. Raiders Week 11 Spread
The Raiders have lost four of their last six games after two huge off-field events – head coach Jon Gruden’s resignation and Henry Ruggs brutal car accident. Las Vegas lost a game it probably shouldn’t have to the Giants and then got blown out by the Chiefs last week.
The Bengals have also lost their last two in similar fashion. Cincy was upset by the Jets and then blown out by the Browns. The Bengals did have last week off though to prepare for this week.
The key here is the Raiders pass offense – ranked No. 2 in the NFL – against Cincy’s poor pass defense which is ranked 24th. At home, the Raiders rebound and cover this one.
Best ATS Pick: RAIDERS +1
