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Favorites held their ground in Week 15 winning 10 of 14 games prior to the NFL’s two rescheduled games on Tuesday night. Favorites were also 8-6 ATS in Week 15.
For the season, favorites are 134-85-1 straight up this season but they are just 105-113-2 ATS. How will Week 16 play out? Here’s a look at the top five NFL Week 16 ATS picks.
Colts vs. Cardinals Week 16 Spread
The Colts are 7-2 over the past 10 weeks. Most of the success can be attributed to RB Jonathan Taylor who has a league-leading 1,854 yards rushing and 19 touchdowns.
Indy also has one of the better defensive units in the league, especially against teams that lack a strong passing game.
That’s exactly what Arizona lacked last Sunday in a 30-12 loss to Detroit. Kyler Murray looked awful with No. 1 WR DeAndre Hopkins. Since coming back from his injury, he is averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt. Pre-injury that number was 9.0.
Here’s the kicker. Against Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury, visiting teams are 13-9 ATS. Underdogs are 12-8 ATS. Combine the two and road underdogs against Kingsbury are 9-4 ATS. Back the Colts.
Best ATS Pick: COLTS +2
Ravens vs. Bengals Week 16 Spread
Lamar Jackson should be back and the Ravens need him. Baltimore has lost three in a row and is tied with Cincy at the top of the AFC North. The Bengals hold the tiebreaker right now, but that could change.
Interestingly, the Under is 18-3 in the last 21 Ravens-Bengals games in which Baltimore was the underdog.
Baltimore has won five of the last six against Cincy and the Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games despite losing three of them. Back Baltimore.
Best ATS Pick: RAVENS +2.5
Cowboys vs. Washington Week 16 Spread
This game comes down to Dallas QB Dak Prescott. Against division opponents, Prescott is outstanding. In his career, he is 21-8 ATS against the NFC East. Outside the division, he is 25-29-2 ATS.
The Football Team could be without a number of players due to COVID. They will also have a short turnaround having played on Tuesday night.
The Cowboys have outperformed the spread against the division by a +5.2-point margin. Despite the double-digit spread, the Cowboys win and cover.
Best ATS Pick: COWBOYS -10
Bills vs. Patriots Week 16 Spread
This is a situation in which Bills QB Josh Allen is undervalued. In his short career, he has performed well on the road. In regular season games, Allen is 17-8-2 ATS away from home.
As an underdog, Allen has done equally well going 15-7-2 ATS and as a road underdog Allen is 9-3-2 ATS. That’s a quarterback you can back.
Sure, New England won 14-10 a couple weeks ago, but Allen has outperformed the spread by a margin of +6.3 points when playing as a road underdog.
Best ATS Pick: BILLS +2
Bears vs. Seahawks Week 16 Spread
Two of the NFL’s worst offenses square off in Seattle on Sunday. The Seahawks, prior to a rare Tuesday night game against the Rams, had scored 30-plus points in two straight games.
QB Russell Wilson found his groove and Seattle scored 30 in a win over San Francisco and 33 last week in a win over Houston.
The Bears have the worst passing game in the NFL and, if not for a decent running game, would be last in scoring too. Chicago is 29th in scoring offense.
Bottom line is the Bears will have trouble getting into the end zone and Seattle won’t.
Best ATS Pick: SEAHAWKS -7
