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Favorites and home teams enjoyed a bit of an advantage in Week 16. The favorite won 10 of 16 games and the home team did the same.
Three double-digit favorites – Kansas City (-10), Dallas (-10), and Philadelphia (-11) – all covered while the Houston Texans pulled the biggest shocker of the week upsetting the Chargers as a 13-point underdog.
What’s in store as the 2021 season winds down? Here are the top five NFL Week 17 ATS picks.
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Week 17 Spread
Yeah, so Arizona is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS in its last three games. Dallas just whacked Washington 56-14. The Cowboys clinched the NFC East and have an NFL-best 12-3 ATS record.
Bet against the Cowboys? Yep. These two teams aren’t that far apart. Plus, here’s the thing. Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury sucks as a home favorite, but he has success both on the road and as an underdog.
On the road, Arizona is 16-6-2 ATS under Kingsbury. As an underdog, they are 17-7-2 ATS. Combine the two and you find that as a road underdog, Kingsbury’s Cardinals are 12-3-2 ATS.
Best ATS Pick: CARDINALS +5.5
Packers vs. Vikings Week 17 Spread
This one is simple. Bet on Aaron Rodgers. Bet on Aaron Rodgers at home. Bet on Aaron Rodgers against division opponents. Bet on Aaron Rodgers against division opponents at home.
Rodgers is 68-37-4 ATS at home in his career. He is also 49-28 ATS against the NFC North and 25-12 ATS against division opponents at home. Oh, and a Packers win coupled with a Cowboys loss to Arizona gives Green Bay the No.1 seed in the NFC playoffs.
Best ATS Pick: PACKERS -6.5
Seahawks vs. Lions Week 17 Spread
The Detroit Lions blew another one last week when backup QB Tim Boyle threw an interception at the goal line in the game’s final seconds. Seattle gave up a deciding touchdown and two-point conversion to the Bears to lose at home last week.
The Lions just don’t get enough credit. They might be just 2-12-1 overall, but they are 10-5 ATS. Seattle has lost five of its last seven games. The Lions have either won, lost, or tied their last six games all by a single score or less.
Best ATS Pick: LIONS +6.5
Chiefs vs. Bengals Week 17 Spread
The Chiefs have won eight in a row and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. The Bengals won both of their last two games and covered in both.
The difference is TE Travis Kelce will return for the Chiefs this week. The Bengals have followed a cycle of win-two-lose-two since mid-October. It’s time to lose and for the Chiefs to cover again.
Best ATS Pick: CHIEFS -5
Eagles vs. Washington Week 17 Spread
The Football Team took one on the chin last week from Dallas. QB Taylor Heinicke was awful, but he’ll be better in Week 17.
Philadelphia has held five of its last six opponents to fewer than 20 points and should be able to do the same to Washington. The Footballers have topped the 20-point mark just twice in their last ten games.
Washington is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. Philly, on the other hand, is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six and the Eagles are 6-2-1 AS in their last nine games against Washington.
Best ATS Pick: EAGLES -3.5
