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It’s the final week of the 2021 NFL season. Favorites were all over the dogs last week winning 13 of 16 games and going 9-6-1 ATS. Home teams won 11 of the 16 games and covered in 13 of them.
There are still two playoff spots left in the AFC and one in the NFC still to be determined. It all comes down to this week. After a 3-2 week last time out, we’ll try to finish the season on a high note. Here are the top five NFL Week 18 ATS picks.
Cowboys vs. Eagles Week 18 Spread
One look at this game and you might think the Cowboys really don’t have much to play for. They are going to be the No. 4 seed in the NFC no matter what.
However, if the Cowboys win and the 49ers beat the Rams, Dallas moves up to No. 3. There’s also a scenario where Dallas gets to No. 2, but regardless the Cowboys would probably like to avoid playing Arizona (who they lost to last week) again in the first round of the postseason. That’s what will happen if Dallas remains at No. 4.
Here’s all you need to know. Dak Prescott is 25-30-2 ATS in games outside the NFC East. Against division competition, Prescott is 22-8 ATS. Cowboys cover the 2.5.
Best ATS Pick: COWBOYS -2.5
Bengals vs. Browns Week 18 Spread
The Bengals clinched the AFC North Division last week with a win over Kansas City. The Browns got waxed in Pittsburgh.
Cleveland isn’t going to the postseason and the Bengals don’t have much of a chance at improving their playoff seed. There is the potential of some players being rested.
Still, there is the simple fact that this is the Browns. They are a home underdog and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. In the 14 games in this series, the Bengals have covered.
Cleveland’s offense has been awful for weeks. The Bengals lost to Cleveland on Nov. 7, 41-16. Cincy wants a little payback and they’ll get it.
Best ATS Pick: BENGALS -3
Colts vs. Jaguars Week 18 Spread
The Colts need a win against the NFL’s worst team to make the postseason. The Jags can shore up the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft with a loss.
Yes, Indy is favored by 15, but at the end of a season good teams typically spank bad teams. Since 2003, teams with a winning percentage of 51 to 67 percent playing a team with a winning percentage of 0 to 33 percent in December and January are 102-80-3 ATS.
In similar games when the “good” team is playing for a playoff spot, the “good” team has gone 28-19-1 ATS. It’s a big number, but the Jags are that bad.
Best ATS Pick: COLTS -15
49ers vs. Rams Week 18 Spread
With a win over the Rams, the Niners make the playoffs. It’s that simple. San Francisco has owned the Rams recently winning seven of the last ten games in the series.
The Niners are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and 4-1 ATS in their last five against LA. Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable for Sunday’s game, but it won’t matter. The 49ers will keep this one close enough to have a shot to win at the end.
Best ATS Pick: 49ers +4
Titans vs. Texans Week 18 Spread
Remember just a few weeks ago when the Texans upset Tennessee? Don’t expect that again. With the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs on the line, Tennessee is going to take care of business against its division rival.
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against AFC South Division opponents and the Titans are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. It won’t matter. The Titans will make a statement on Sunday.
Best ATS Pick: TITANS -10.5
