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Favorites went 10-5 straight up last week and an even 7-7-1 against the spread. Coach Rick came ahead just barely with a record of 3-2 last week.
There are a number of big games in Week 4 including a few division matchups that could have long-term playoff implications. Here’s a look at the top five NFL Week 4 ATS picks.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
There are two things to consider here. One is that Seattle has lost two games in a row thanks to a defense that hasn’t stopped anybody. At 1-2, the future doesn’t look good. At 1-3, disaster looms. There’s next Thursday’s visit by the Rams and a game against the Saints in the near future. Seattle can’t afford many more losses early.
The other consideration is simply QB Russell Wilson. It’s hard to bet against Wilson when he’s a road underdog. He’s 20-11-2 ATS in that situation. He’s also 26-14-4 ATS when Seattle is coming off a loss, which the Seahawks are. And, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 8-19-1 when his team is the favorite.
BEST ATS BET: SEAHAWKS +3
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
Before the season started, the look-ahead line on this game was Baltimore -3. Then, the Broncos won their first three games by an average of 16 points. Denver is 3-0 and the defense is very good.
Playing at home, the Broncos are favored by 1.5. There are a couple reasons to like the Ravens in this spot. One is that Denver hasn’t played anyone. They have beaten the Giants, Jets, and the Jaguars. Those three teams have a combined record of 0-9.
The other thing to consider is the injuries to DE Bradley Chubb, WR KJ Hamler, and WR Jerry Jeudy. Don’t forget, Baltimore beat Kansas City and, if not for about 45 seconds in Week 1, would be 3-0.
BEST ATS BET: RAVENS +1.5
New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints
The Giants are 0-3. They have lost two games in the final seconds, including last week’s 17-14 setback to Atlanta. New York lost WR Sterling Shepard and LB Blake Martinez, the team’s leading tackler, to injuries.
Now, they head to Jacksonville to play New Orleans, which has the third-best run defense in the league. The Giants will try to rely on RB Saquon Barkley, but the Saints give up just 2.9 yards per rush. Then, there’s Daniel Jones at quarterback.
The Giants just don’t have the roster to keep up with the Saints, which is why New Orleans will be able to cover this touchdown-plus spread.
BEST ATS BET: SAINTS -7.5
Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills
The Houston Texans are a bad football team. They are also a bad football team playing its backup quarterback. The offense with Davis Mills under center was awful in last Thursday’s 24-9 loss to Carolina.
It could be worse in Buffalo, but the Bills defense isn’t Carolina’s. A 16.5-point spread is just too much to cover. Yes, Houston has lost seven straight on the road, but they have covered in their last three games played away from home.
Houston is 4-2 ATS in their last six games. In one of those (against Cleveland), the Texans were a 13.5- point underdog. They lost by 10. Houston is also 4-2 ATS in its last six games against Buffalo.
BEST ATS PICK: TEXANS +16.5
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Who would have thought the Rams and Cardinals would be playing for first place in the NFC West in Week 4? The Rams are 10-2 in their last 12 home games and they have owned the Cardinals recently.
Los Angeles has won the last eight straight games in this series. The Rams are also 7-0-1 ATS. Playing at home with the better defense and Matthew Stafford (71.1% completions, 942 yards), the Rams can win by a touchdown.
BEST ATS PICK: RAMS -6
