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A full four teams opened as double-digit favorites in Week 7 of the NFL. Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and the Los Angeles Rams are all playing at home against what would be considered bad teams this week. As a result, they all face double-digit point spreads.
Despite the large spreads, there are still a handful that are advantageous for bettors. Here are the top five NFL Week 7 ATS picks.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins
Falcons vs. Dolphins Prediction
The Miami Dolphins have been a big disappointment this season. After winning their season opener over New England, Miami has lost five straight. In three of those games, the Dolphins gave up 31 or more points. The most recent loss was the worst, a 23-20 defeat at the hands of previously winless Jacksonville.
Now, the 2-3 Falcons come to town as a three-point road underdog. Atlanta had last week off and, prior to that, had beat the Jets 27-20 on October 10. The key in Sunday’s game is the Falcons’ bye week. Since 2013 in games where Atlanta has had a rest advantage over its opponent – like this week – the Falcons are 16-6 straight up. Atlanta is also 13-9 ATS in those games.
Miami is getting three points by virtue of playing at home. That’s the only reason. Matt Ryan and the Falcons will give the Dolphins defense fits.
Best ATS Pick: FALCONS +3
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones is getting better. He almost pulled off an upset of the Dallas Cowboys last week only to lose in overtime. His best game this year came in a win over the Jets, which is who New England plays on Sunday.
The Jets had the week off last week to prepare for the Patriots on Sunday. The problem with that is that historically the Jets don’t do well with a rest advantage over their opponent. Since 2016, New York is just 3-14 straight up when facing a team over which they have a rest advantage. In that same time frame, the Jets are 7-10 ATS. Going back to 2010, New York is 11-19 ATS in games where they had a rest advantage over their opponent.
In Week 2 of this season, the Patriots pounded the Jets 25-6 in New York. It can happen again.
Best ATS Pick: PATRIOTS -7
Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have lost three straight after starting the season 2-0. Sunday night’s tussle with the Colts is about as close to a must-win game as you can get. San Francisco cannot afford to fall any farther behind the rest of the pack in the NFC West.
The Colts are coming off a big win over Houston, but Indy needs to realize that the 49ers are much better than the Texans. Yes, Carson Wentz played well completing 11-of-20 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns, but Houston is a bad football team. The Niners, even at 2-3, are not.
Since 2007, the 49ers are 47-24-1 (66.7 percent) against the spread when they are playing as a home favorite. San Francisco is favored by 3.5 on Sunday night, and rightfully so.
Best ATS Pick: 49ers -3.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
It’s the AFC title game rematch only this time the Chiefs will have to beat Tennessee in Nashville. The Chiefs offense put up 35 points and covered the seven-point spread in last year’s matchup.
This time around, the Titans are coming off a 34-31 victory over Buffalo. The problem for Tennessee is the defense. They have given up 30 or more points in three of their six games and two of those games were wins.
The Chiefs finally played some defense last week in a 31-13 win over Washington. The problem Kansas City has is they just don’t cover point spreads. The Chiefs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Titans. History prevails.
Best ATS Pick: TITANS +5.5
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Eagles do a great job of being inconsistent. They are also just 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. Against the Raiders, they are just 1-5 ATS in the last six matchups.
The Raiders aren’t tearing it up, but the whole Jon Gruden fiasco has died down and the team got back to business with a win over Denver last week as a five-point underdog. The thing is, the Raiders don’t do a good job of covering spreads at home.
Since 2003, the Raiders have the worst ATS record (53-87-2) of any team in the NFL. They also have the worst record in the league when playing as a home favorite since 2003 (18-37).
Philly, on the other hand, is 79-73-1 ATS since 2003 when playing on the road. The Eagles are 44-33 ATS when playing as a road underdog.
Best ATS Pick: EAGLES +3
