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Underdogs still hold the advantage against the spread this season with a 64-55-1 record so far this season. The Jets, an 11.5-point dog against Cincinnati, pulled off the biggest win of Week 8. Several favorites, including Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle, all won games last week. Who will it be this week? Here’s a look at the top five NFL Week 9 ATS picks.
Patriots vs. Panthers Point Spread
With Sam Darnold not having the greatest season and the fact that he is in concussion protocol, the New England Patriots are actually a 2.5-point road favorite on Sunday against the Panthers. Darnold was 30 th in DVOA and 25 th in QB Rating. The sad thing is that Carolina will turn to former XFL star P.J. Walker whose DVOA is even worse than Darnold’s.
Playing against New England and Bill Belichick, you can bet the Patriots are going to get after Walker. That, along with the development of Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones, is enough for bettors to back New England. The Patriots are 4-4 and now need to make a playoff push. It starts with a win over Carolina.
Best ATS Pick: PATRIOTS -2.5
Falcons vs. Saints Point Spread
The Saints are coming off a big win over Tampa Bay, but the win came at a cost – QB Jameis Winston. The New Orleans quarterback tore an ACL and is done for the season. Right now, the Saints quarterback situation is unclear. Taysom Hill has to clear concussion protocol, which he is expected to do this week. The Falcons beat two bad teams – Miami and the Jets – and then lost to Carolina 19-13 last week. Matt Ryan and company can keep this one close enough regardless of who plays under center for New Orleans.
Best ATS Pick: FALCONS +6
Chargers vs. Eagles Point Spread
The Chargers have now lost two straight and need a win badly. They will travel to Philadelphia where the Eagles are just 3-5. Philly beat winless Detroit 44-6 last week while the Chargers lost to an improving New England 27-24.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers are the better team here. The Eagles are too inconsistent and they are 3-4 ATS this season. The Chargers, a 2.5-point favorite Sunday, are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. They can win this by a field goal.
Best ATS Pick: CHARGERS -2.5
Raiders vs. Giants Point Spread
The Giants put up a fight on Monday night and lost on a late field goal to Kansas City. But, the Chiefs are a 4-4 football team. New York’s offense held true to form on Monday night putting up a whopping 17 points. The Giants average 19.5 per game for the season. That isn’t going to cut it against a Raiders offense that can pile up yards and points.
Derek Carr leads a passing game that produces roughly 308 yards per game. The Raiders score 25.7 points per game and the Giants defense ranks closer to the bottom of the league than the top in most defensive categories.
The Raiders have covered in their last two straight and four of seven games this season. Plus, they are coming off a bye. Road favorites coming off a bye cover 62 percent of the time over the last decade. Get this one before the line moves.
Best ATS Pick: RAIDERS -3
Packers vs. Chiefs Point Spread
Kansas City is notorious for not covering spreads. They are 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 games. Green Bay? They are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games. Even without Aaron Rodgers, we’re siding with the Packers for NFL week 9.
Best ATS Pick: PACKERS +7
