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It’s finally here. The NFL playoffs begin this Saturday. Bettors have to turn up their game just like the teams in the postseason must do if they wish to advance.
At least one wild card has won a first-round playoff game in each of the past four seasons. Road underdogs typically do well against the spread in playoff games as well.
Who will it be in 2022? Here are the top five ATS picks for the NFL wild card round.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Point Spread
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Eagles went 6-2 over their final eight games of the season. Don’t get too excited though. Two of the wins were over Washington and there were one each over the Giants and Jets. Philly also played six playoff teams this season. They lost to all of them.
The Eagles played the Bucs way back in October. Tampa Bay led 28-7 before some late penalties gave Philly a couple scores to make it look more respectable. The Eagles covered the spread too with a fourth quarter touchdown.
The Bucs won seven of their last eight and went 6-2 ATS in those games. They also held Philly to 213 yards in that first meeting. The Eagles live by running the football. Tampa Bay has one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Bucs win easily.
Best ATS Pick: BUCCANEERS -8.5
Raiders vs. Bengals Point Spread
Raiders vs. Bengals Prediction
These two teams played earlier this season and Cincy won on the road 32-13 as a 1.5-point favorite. Joe Mixon ran for over 100 yards and two touchdowns in that game.
Cincy doesn’t have a great pass defense and QB Derek Carr and the Raiders have one of the best passing games in the NFL. TE Darren Waller is back in the lineup and he had seven catches for 116 yards against the Bengals in the earlier game.
The Bengals are an untested playoff team and this may be too many points to cover. Plus, home favorites of seven or fewer points in the Wild Card round since 2003 are just 14-28-1 ATS. Back the Raiders to cover.
Best ATS Pick: RAIDERS +6
Patriots vs. Bills Point Spread
In each of the Bills 11 wins, Buffalo won by at least 12 points. The Bills went 0-5 in one-score games. One of those was a 14-10 home loss to these very same Patriots.
Buffalo has a habit of letting teams hang around. They did it last week when they were leading the Jets just 13-10 in the fourth quarter. They allowed New York just 53 yards of offense and sacked rookie QB Zack Wilson nine times.
Letting a Bill Belichick-coached team hang around is bad news. Belichick is 30-15-2 ATS as a regular season underdog. He is 32-11 overall against Buffalo and 22-14-2 ATS.
Road underdogs of seven or fewer in the Wild Card round since 2003 are 28-14-1 ATS. There is value on the Patriots here.
Best ATS Pick: PATRIOTS +4
Steelers vs. Chiefs Point Spread
Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Steelers won their last two games and got help from Jacksonville to make the postseason. For that, they get the one team that smoked them just a few weeks ago. Kansas City beat Pittsburgh 36-10 and clearly outplayed the Steelers.
This will be the final game for Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger. Remember Drew Brees last game? Dan Marino? A lot of great quarterbacks had ugly last games. This will be another.
Since 2003 in the wild card round of the playoffs, home teams that are double-digit favorites are 5-0 ATS. KC is an 11.5-point favorite and they will cover.
Best ATS Pick: CHIEFS -12.5
49ers vs. Cowboys Point Spread
The 49ers rallied in the second half of the season to go 8-3 straight up and ATS over their final 11 games. Dallas has scored 50-plus points in two of its final three games and went 13-4 ATS for the season.
Looking closer though, six of those 13 ATS wins were against the NFC East. The Cowboys defense has played well this year, but the run defense is mediocre. The 49ers run game can exploit the Dallas run defense.
The Cowboys are 3-0 SU and ATS against San Francisco in their last three meetings, but this one doesn’t feel right. The Niners cover and possibly even pull the upset.
Best ATS Pick: 49ERS +3
