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Week 9 saw one of the biggest upsets in recent NFL history when Jacksonville beat Buffalo as a 16-point underdog. That win paid at +700 odds on the moneyline. Denver, Tennessee, Atlanta, Arizona, and the New York Giants all won as underdogs last week.
Who will it be in Week 10? Here are your top three NFL Week 10 moneyline underdog picks.
Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots
The Browns grabbed a huge win last week with a 41-16 drubbing of Cincinnati. Cleveland ran the ball well with Nick Chubb getting 137 yards and two touchdowns.
That allowed Baker Mayfield to stay within his comfort zone and not do anything stupid. When the Browns run the ball for over 150 yards, they are 5-2 SU and ATS. Cleveland also has a defense that can stuff New England’s run game and get after rookie QB Mac Jones.
The Browns are third against the run and have the second-highest number of sacks (27) in the league right now. The Patriots have won four of their last five and are playing at home where they typically play well. However, New England is just 1-4 at Gillette Stadium this season.
Best Moneyline Pick: BROWNS +110
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have really fallen apart the past few weeks. Their run defense is awful. They are dead last in the NFL at stopping the run. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook should run wild against LA.
The Chargers also are weak in the secondary. Two starters are out with injuries and that will provide Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins ample opportunities to get the ball to Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. The Vikings haven’t gotten over the hump yet, but they have found ways to keep games close. They almost pulled off the upset last week against Baltimore. This week, the Vikings will take advantage of a very poor Chargers defense.
Best Moneyline Pick: VIKINGS +120
Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers
Russell Wilson got the go-ahead and will start for Seattle against the Packers on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers is still on the COVID list but is expected to play for Green Bay. He can return to practice on Saturday.
The two met last year in Green Bay in the divisional round of the playoffs. Rodgers and the Packers won 28-23 and Green Bay has beaten the Seahawks in four of the last five meetings between the two teams.
Wilson is one of those quarterbacks you just don’t bet against. As an underdog, he is 23-10 ATS which means he keeps these types of games close. You can’t really trust Seattle’s defense – 28th against the pass – but you can trust Wilson to come back with a vengeance.
Best Moneyline Pick: SEATTLE +155
