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Five underdogs won outright last week. Washington was the biggest beating Tampa Bay as a +340 moneyline underdog. Minnesota won on the road in Los Angeles beating the Chargers 27-20 as a +155 moneyline underdog.
Can any of these teams do it again? Here are the top three NFL Week 11 moneyline underdog picks.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Bengals vs. Raiders Prediction
Both the Bengals and Raiders are on two-game losing streaks. The Raiders have had to deal with losing a head coach – Jon Gruden – and a key player – Henry Ruggs III.
Despite the adversity, Las Vegas still has the second-ranked passing offense in the league. QB Derek Carr is second in the NFL in passing yards per game (314). He will go up against a Cincy pass defense that ranks 24th.
That’s where the advantage lies. The Bengals have been torched by the Jets Mike White, who threw for 414 yards and last week Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield netted 208. Cincy gave up 34 points to the Jets and 41 to the Browns last week.
The Raiders offense will have success against a suspect Bengals defense. Plus, you have to like a home underdog.
Best Moneyline Pick: RAIDERS +100
Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sure, the Chiefs have won, but look at who they have beaten. They struggled to get by the 3-6 Giants winning 20-17. Kansas City beat an Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay 13-7 and then beat rival Las Vegas 41- 14 last week breaking open a 27-14 lead with two meaningless fourth-quarter touchdowns.
The Chiefs are favored in this game only because they are playing at home. They have lost twice at home already and haven’t covered a spread at home.
Dallas has a top-10 scoring defense, which many don’t realize. That, along with what is likely the NFL’s best offense, gives the Cowboys the edge here. The Chiefs defense is atrocious. Dak Prescott and company will tear it apart.
Best Moneyline Pick: COWBOYS +120
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Packers vs. Vikings Prediction
This is where Green Bay loses a game it should win. The Vikings beat a good Chargers team last week and return home to take on the Packers, a team they beat in their last meeting.
Minnesota has five losses this season. All five have been by seven points or less. The Vikings are close. They just need a marquee win and this one is it. Minnesota’s next two games – this one and next week against San Francisco – will go a long way in determining whether or not the Vikings are a playoff team.
The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in five games as a betting underdog this season. They have also won outright in two of those games. In the only other game this season in which Minnesota was a home underdog, the Vikings won. They do it again on Sunday.
Best Moneyline Pick: VIKINGS +110
