Trump’s Presidential Odds Soar After Assassination Attempt

The political landscape of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election took a dramatic turn following Saturday’s assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. Before this shocking incident, Trump’s odds of winning this November stood at a healthy -175, indicating he was favored but not overwhelmingly so.

However, in the wake of the assassination attempt, his odds have surged to -300, making him a heavy favorite. Has the attempt on Trump’s life truly helped his chances to win the election? Or will his odds fade accordingly as we get closer to Election Day?

Below, I’ll explore how the assassination attempt has influenced the election odds and altered the dynamics of the 2024 race.

The Latest U.S. Presidential Election Odds

The latest U.S. Presidential Election odds, courtesy of the top online betting sites:

Understanding the Odds

Before the assassination attempt, Trump’s odds of -175 meant that a bettor would need to wager $175 to win $100. Now, with odds at -300, a bettor must wager $300 to win $100. This shift indicates a significant increase in the likelihood of Trump’s victory, as perceived by the betting markets.

Key Factors Influencing the Shift

Several factors have contributed to the shift in odds:

1. Increased Voter Support: The assassination attempt led to a groundswell of support from both Trump’s base and, potentially, undecided voters.
2. Positive Media Coverage: The portrayal of Trump as a resilient and determined leader has boosted his public image.
3. Political Reactions: Unified condemnation from political opponents helped humanize Trump and shift public perception in his favor.
4. Polling Data: Improved polling numbers following the assassination attempt have influenced betting markets to adjust the odds.

Competitors and Their Odds

While Trump’s odds have improved, it is important to consider the standing of his competitors:

Joe Biden (+350)

President Biden’s odds of retaining the Oval Office seem to get worse by the day. He’s now listed at +350 in light of the latest news.

While his odds have lengthened in comparison to Trump, Biden’s established political base and incumbency provide him with a strong foundation. However, those questions about his age aren’t going away.

This 81-year-old isn’t getting any younger, and he’s struggled to draw contrasts between himself and Trump since the aforementioned debate.

Kamala Harris (+1000)

Vice President Kamala Harris is listed at +1000, reflecting her position as a notable contender. Harris is currently running for re-election as Biden’s VP, though there remains a strong chance that she could eventually find herself atop the Democratic Party’s ticket.

Calls for Biden to step aside have quieted since the Trump assassination attempt, though I don’t think they’ve gone silent for good. Once the Republican Convention ends, don’t be surprised if we start to hear renewed calls for Biden to drop out and pave the way for Harris to run for the presidency.

Michelle Obama (+4000)

Former First Lady Michelle Obama, with odds of +4000, is a long-shot candidate. Despite her popularity, she has not declared any intention to run, making her an unlikely but intriguing option.

Michelle Obama running is essentially a pipedream for Democrats fearful of a second Trump term. The ex-First Lady is still incredibly popular among Democratic voters and the American electorate, in general.

However, there is currently no reason to believe Obama has any interest in re-entering the political forum.

Gavin Newsom (+4500) and Gretchen Whitmer (+5500)

Governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer are also long-shot candidates with odds of +4500 and +5500, respectively. Both have strong regional support but face significant challenges in building a nationwide campaign.

If Biden does drop out of the race, it seems awfully likely that the Democratic coalition would simply coalesce around Harris as the heir apparent. While Newsom and Whitmer certainly have higher political aspirations, I think both are more likely to wait until 2028 before embarking on presidential runs.

The Assassination Attempt: A Catalyst for Change

The assassination attempt on Donald Trump was a harrowing event that not only threatened his life but also shook the political world. The immediate aftermath saw a significant shift in public sentiment and political support, which is reflected in the drastic change in his election odds.

Remember how the news cycle was before Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, over the weekend? The former president was – for the first time in a while – barely in the news at all. Instead, the political press was focused almost entirely on whether Trump’s opponent – President Joe Biden – should remain in the race as the Democratic Party’s nominee.

Biden’s poll numbers tanked immediately following his dismal showing at a debate against Trump just over 2 weeks ago. Polls indicate the GOP nominee is currently leading the sitting president in key swing states including Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.

However, since the attempt on Trump’s life on Saturday, Biden’s political woes have since become back-page news. The Republican National Convention – which will run from Monday through Thursday – will keep Trump in the center of the American political spotlight for the rest of the week.

Surge in Support and Sympathy

In times of crisis, the public often rallies around their leaders. The assassination attempt on Trump led to a wave of sympathy and support from across the nation. Even some of his critics condemned the act and expressed their support for his recovery.

This surge in sympathy and solidarity for Trump has since translated into stronger polling numbers and improved election odds. Trump was already running ahead of Biden, and his lead has only grown over the past couple of days.

Media Coverage and Public Perception

The extensive media coverage of the assassination attempt highlighted Trump’s resilience and determination. The narrative of a leader who survived an attack on his life and continued his campaign resonated with many voters, enhancing his public image. This positive shift in public perception contributed significantly to the improvement in his odds.

The following picture of Trump taken just moments after the shots rang out – captured by Evan Vucci of the Associated Press – is one for the history books:

Impact on Opponents

The assassination attempt also had a noticeable impact on Trump’s political opponents. Many of them issued statements of support and condemnation of the attack, which, while necessary, inadvertently painted Trump in a sympathetic light.

To say the rhetoric on both sides of this election has been ugly is an understatement. Just a day before the assassination attempt, President Biden again labeled Trump as a “legitimate threat to democracy,” which has been a hallmark of the Democrats’ campaign to this point.

Trump – despite never being shy to hurl insults and cast aspersions upon his own perceived political rivals – being the victim of a bona fide assassination attempt has again put him in an advantageous political position. As was the case when he was indicted on 91 felony charges – and eventually convicted of 34 – Trump can play the “victim” card. His base of voters will eat it up, and the attempted assassination furthers the narrative that the former president is something of a martyr for the Republican cause.

This shift in the political narrative helped Trump gain an edge over his competitors.

Will Trump’s Odds Continue To Improve?

The assassination attempt on Donald Trump has dramatically altered the 2024 Presidential Election landscape. His odds to win have improved significantly, from -175 to -300, reflecting a vast improvement in his public support.

While Trump is now the heavy favorite, the race is far from over. With 4 months between now and Election Day, there’s no telling what can (and will) change. Politics are inherently unpredictable, as we’ve been reminded yet again over the past couple of weeks.

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses as the 2024 Presidential Election unfolds.