UFC 281 will be hosted at Madison Square Garden in New York on Saturday.
The early prelims will begin at 6:00 PM ET, the prelims start at 8:00 PM ET and the main card will get underway at 8:00 PM ET. There are 14 fights scheduled for UFC 281 this weekend.
Two title fights headline this pay-per-view card. Israel Adesanya fights Alex Pereira at middleweight and Carla Esparza fights Zhang Weili at strawweight. The entire main card is stacked with great fights.
Adesanya vs. Pereira Predictions
Fight Odds: Adesanya (-205) vs. Pereira (+175)
Adesanya (23-1) will put his title on the line against Pereira (6-1) in the main event.
Pereira is 3-0 in the UFC with two TKO/KO wins. He only has seven professional MMA fights under his belt, but he’s the former Glory kickboxing champion. He’s also 2-0 against Adesanya in kickboxing fights.
The first kickboxing fight was close and Adesanya was winning the second fight until he was put to sleep by a left hook. Adesanya will need to make sure he doesn’t get hit with another left hook.
Adesanya has won three consecutive fights by decision since losing to Jan Blachowicz.
Neither has landed a takedown in the UFC, so this will be a striking battle. Adesanya averages 3.92 SLpM and 2.67 SApM, while Pereira averages 6.29 SLpM and 3.36 SApM.
Pereira has been accurate in his short UFC career, but Adesanya has excellent movement in the cage. I’ll be on Adesanya to win this fight. He has the experience in five-round fights to outpoint Pereira.
The underdog could end it anytime with a left hook, but Adesanya has the edge nearly everywhere else.
Best Bet: Adesanya ML (-205)
Esparza vs. Weili Predictions
Fight Odds: Esparza (+275) vs. Weili (-330)
Esparza (19-6) may be the champion, but Weili (22-3) is a huge favorite in the co-main event.
Esparza is on a six-fight winning streak. Five of the wins have come by decision, including in her last fight earlier this year against Rose Namajunas. She knocked out Xiaonan Yan in the fight before that.
Weili lost twice to Namajunas in 2021, but she bounced back with a win against Joanna Jedrzejczyk by spinning backfist in the second round. Weili has a considerable striking edge in this fight.
Weili averages 5.78 SLpM and 4.26 SApM, while Esparza averages 2.20 SLpM and 2.59 SApM. She’s also three inches taller than her opponent and the more accurate striker (47% vs. 40%).
Both fighters are capable on the ground as well. They both average more than two takedowns per 15 minutes and neither have strong takedown defense. This fight will end up on the mat.
However, look for Zhang to try and keep the fight standing as much as possible. With this fight being five rounds, there’s a good chance Zhang will be able to land a knockout shot at some point.
Best Bet: Zhang Inside the Distance (+100)
Poirier vs. Chandler Predictions
Fight Odds: Poirier (-210) vs. Chandler (+180)
Dustin Poirier (28-7-0-1), the #2 lightweight, will fight Michael Chandler (23-7) who is the #5 lightweight.
The winner of this fight might be in line for the next title shot at lightweight. Poirier is 3-1 in the UFC since 2020 with two TKO/KO wins against Connor McGregor, but he’s coming off a loss to Charles Oliveira.
Chandler is only 2-2 dating back to last year. After losing to Oliveira and Justin Gaethje, he was able to knockout Tony Ferguson earlier this year. He has been knocked out four times in his career.
Poirier has 14 TKO/KO wins in his career. He has excellent boxing. He utilizes his footwork to prevent his opponents from landing big shots, while at the same time landing combinations.
Poirier averages 5.61 SLpM and 4.28 SApM, while Chandler averages 5.17 SLpM and 4.87 SApM. Poirier also has the edge in striking accuracy (50% vs. 46%) and striking defense (53% vs. 45%).
Chandler may land some takedowns in this fight, but he’s unlikely to do much damage or be able to keep Poirier on the mat. Poirier will win the striking battle and there’s a good chance he’ll finish Chandler.
Best Bet: Poirier ML (-210)
UFC 281 Parlay Predictions
I have a couple parlays I recommend betting this weekend for UFC 281.
Adesanya ML + Poirier ML (+119 Payout Odds)
I’ve already explained why I’m betting on the two fights above to win. My second parlay includes these two UFC 281 favorites as well as some others favorites to increase the payout odds.
Adesanya ML + Poirier ML + Reyes ML + Petroski ML (+393 Payout Odds)
These four favorites are all priced similarly on the UFC 281 fight card. When parlayed together, we’re getting nearly 4/1 odds if they all win, which is a nice potential payout.
Dominick Reyes (12-3) fights Ryan Spann (20-7) on the prelims card. Reyes has been knocked out in his last two fights and he has lost three in a row, but he has the power to finish this fight.
Andre Petroski (8-1) is 3-0 in the UFC with three finishes. Wellington Turman (18-5) has won two in a row, but he’s only 3-3 in the UFC. Petroski will dominate in this fight and earn the win.
UFC 281 Betting Lines
Israel Adesanya (-205) vs. Alex Pereira (+175)
Carla Esparza (+275) vs. Zhang Weili (-330)
Dustin Poirier (-210) vs. Michael Chandler (+180)
Frankie Edgar (+195) vs. Chris Gutierrez (-230)
Dan Hooker (-145) vs. Claudio Puelles (+125)
Brad Riddell (+100) vs. Renato Moicano (-120)
Dominick Reyes (-205) vs. Ryan Spann (+175)
Erin Blanchfield (-390) vs. Molly McCann (+320)
Andre Petroski (-195) vs. Wellington Turman (+165)
Matt Frevola (+120) vs. Ottman Azaitar (-140)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-110) vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez (-110)
Michael Trizano (+145) vs. Seung Woo Choi (-170)
Julio Arce (+170) vs. Montel Jackson (-200)
Carlos Ulberg (-130) vs. Nicolae Negumereanu (+110)