UFC on ESPN+ 32: Lewis vs. Oleinik Predictions

Let’s hope UFC on ESPN+ 32 runs more smoothly than last week’s event. Multiple fights needed to be cancelled at the last minute this past Saturday. Trevin Giles was supposed to fight Kevin Holland, but right before the fight, Giles passed out in the locker room.

The Ed Herman fight had to be scrapped as well because Meerschaert tested positive for COVID-19.

I had Herman, so that bet was refunded. I went 2-1 (+1.35 units) on my other picks. Maia dominated in her fight as a +155 underdog, but I had the main event completely wrong.

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Derrick Lewis vs. Aleksei Oleinik Picks

Fight Odds: Lewis (-215) vs. Oleinik (+170)

Lewis (23-7-0-1) and Oleinik (59-13-1) headline the UFC on ESPN+ 32 fight card.

The Russian will be looking for his 60th professional MMA win. That’s insane to think about, but will he be able to win here as an underdog? While possible, it’s definitely unlikely.

Oleinik is coming off an upset win against Werdum and earlier this year he submitted Greene.

He’s 2-0 in 2020, while Lewis is also on a two-fight win streak. Lewis has picked up decision victories against Ivanov and Latifi. In 2018, Lewis was submitted for the first time in his career by Cormier.

Oleinik has 46 submission wins and this is his only way to win. He has struggled with cardio as well and with Lewis’s raw strength, even if the Russian lands a takedown, he’s unlikely to keep Lewis down on the mat. Lewis has 53% takedown defense, while Oleinik has 46% takedown accuracy.

This fight ends with a Lewis TKO/KO or Oleinik submission.

Best Bet: Derrick Lewis by TKO/KO (-150)

Chris Weidman vs. Omari Akhmedov Picks

Fight Odds: Weidman (-125) vs. Akhmedov (-105)

Remember when Weidman (14-5) was the middleweight champion? That was a long time ago. He started his UFC career 9-0, but since defeating Belfort in 2015, he’s just 1-5 in the UFC.

He submitted Gastelum in 2017, but he was knocked out in each of the five losses.

Akhmedov (20-4-1) is 5-0-1 in his last six UFC fights. Since moving to middleweight, the Russian is on a 3-0-1 run with three consecutive wins against Boetsch, Cummings and Heinisch.

I hate putting my money on Weidman, but how can I pass him up at –125 odds?

Weidman is way more accomplished and while he has dealt with a weak chin as he has gotten older, it’s not like Akhmedov is known for his power. The Russian likes to grind out wins. His last six fights have all gone to decision, which bodes well for Weidman, as he has never lost a decision.

I’ll take a shot on Weidman, but if he losses to Akhmedov, he should consider retiring.

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Best Bet: Chris Weidman ML (-125) at America’s Bookie

Beneil Dariush vs. Scott Holtzman Picks

Fight Odds: Dariush (-167) vs. Holtzman (+137)

Dariush (18-4-1) has turned things around the last couple years. Since losing to Hernandez by KO in 2018, Dariush has gone 4-0 with wins against Moises, Dober, Camacho and Klose.

His last three wins have all come via stoppage. Dariush has 4 TKO/KO wins and 8 submission wins, he’s a huge threat on the mat and Holtzman (14-3) will likely be overmatched here.

Holtzman has never been stopped, but I like Dariush by submission. Hot Sauce is 5-1 in the UFC since 2017, but the quality of opponents he has faced isn’t great. He’s coming off a decision win against Miller, who is past his prime. Holtzman has nothing to lose here, but it’ll be tough to win.

Dariush will win this fight if it goes to the ground. Even standing up, Dariush has a good chance to win, as he has a strong chin and he’ll have a 3’’ reach advantage (72’’ vs. 69’’).

Best Bet: Beneil Dariush ML (-167) at America’s Bookie

UFC on ESPN+ 32 Parlay Predictions

Here’s my parlay for UFC on ESPN+ 32:

Lewis ML + Dariush ML + Kunitskaya ML (+242) at BetOnline

Yana Kunitskaya (12-5-0-1) lost to Ladd (TKO) last time out and needs a win here.

Julija Stoliarenko (9-3-2) has won five fights in a row, including a win against Verzosa to claim the Invicta title. However, he chances of winning this fight are slim.

She has to try and take this fight to the ground, but the Russian is deadly in the clinch and can finish fights with knees or elbows. She has 7 TKO/KO wins to her name, but in the UFC, she has relied on grinding out her opponents. That’s what’ll likely happen here, Kunitskaya will win by decision.

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UFC on ESPN+ 32 Betting Lines

Derrick Lewis (-215) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (+170)

Chris Weidman (-125) vs. Omari Akhmedov (-105)

Darren Stewart (-190) vs. Maki Pitolo (+160)

Yana Kunitskaya (-237) vs. Julia Stoliarenko (+187)

Beneil Dariush (-167) vs. Scott Holtzman (+137)

Laureano Staropoli (-140) vs. Tim Means (+110)

Nasrat Haqparast (-245) vs. Alex Munoz (+195)

Wellington Turman (-162) vs. Andrew Sanchez (+132)

Gavin Tucker (-155) vs. Justin Jaynes (+125)

Youssef Zalal (-385) vs. Peter Barrett (+295)

Irwin Rivera (-205) vs. Ali Al Qaisi (+175)