UFC on ESPN+ 35 Odds: Waterson vs. Hill Predictions

The UFC will host UFC on ESPN+ 35 at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday night.

The event will be headlined by a Women’s Strawweight fight. Michelle Waterson is ranked #8 in the division and Angela Hill is ranked #13, so it’s not a fight with title implications.

I ended up going 3-0 on my straight bets for UFC on ESPN+ 34 (+3.1 units). The parlay was cancelled, as Karol Rosa was hospitalized before the fight due to weight cutting complications.

That’s now +7.85 units of profit in the last two UFC events.

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Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill Picks

Fight Odds: Waterson (+100) vs. Hill (-130)

Hill (12-8) opened up as a –170 favorite, but is now just –130, as money is coming in on Waterson (17-8). This fight is scheduled for five rounds, which makes things a little more intriguing.

The public has this fight wrong. Hill has been active – fighting three times already in 2020. She has gone 2-1 in those fights, but she’s coming off a split decision loss to Gadelha.

Waterson has lost her last two fights, but those were against Jedrzejczyk and Esparza who has been red hot. Prior to that she had won three fights in a row. Since 2018, she’s 3-2 (all decisions).

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Both fighters are great strikers, but Hill is much more active. Hill averages 5.76 SLpM, but she also averages 5.17 SApM), while Waterson averages 3.31 SLpM and 1.68 SApM.

However, Waterson has better wrestling and that’ll be the difference. Hill will come out firing and as long as Waterson doesn’t try to trade, she’ll be able to start dominating as the fight progresses.

Hill has been stopped twice in her career, both submissions. Waterson has 9 submission wins and my money is on her to win this fight. I predict she’ll win by submission, but I’m betting the moneyline.

Best Bet: Michelle Waterson ML (+100) at America’s Bookie

Khama Worthy vs. Ottman Azaitar Picks

Fight Odds: Worthy (-140) vs. Azaitar (+110)

This fight is a toss-up. The co-main event features the overhyped Worthy (16-6) against Azaitar (12-0) who is undefeated, but lacks experience. Worthy is 2-0 in the UFC and Azaitar is 1-0.

Worthy knocked out Devonte Smith and submitted Pena – both times as a big underdog. He’s now a favorite and it’ll be a big test for him, as he’s coming into this fight with expectations.

Will that get to him? Only time will tell. One thing I do know is both guys are powerful strikers and don’t mind trading in the middle of the cage. That’s why the O1.5 rounds is priced up at –135.

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Both fighters have 9 TKO/KO wins. Worthy has been knocked out in five of his six losses, but he’s on a 7-fight win streak and hasn’t lost since 2017 when Kyle Nelson knocked him out in a minute.

I don’t think Azaitar is a fighter to trade strikes with. He averages 7.61 SLpM and he has 57% defense (2.25 SApM), whereas Worthy only averages 4.44 SLpM and he has 49% defense (3.09 SApM).

I’m going with another underdog at UFC on ESPN+ 35 this Saturday.

Best Bet: Ottman Azaitar ML (+110) at America’s Bookie

Billy Quarantillo vs. Kyle Nelson

Fight Odds: Quarantillo (-250) vs. Nelson (+200)

Quarantillo (14-2) is on a 7-0 run, including two wins since joining the UFC last year. He submitted Kilburn in his debut and then won a decision against Carlyle in an absolute war.

Nelson knocked out Reyes in his last fight, but he started his UFC career on an 0-2 run. He had lost to Ferreira at UFC 231 in 2018 and then followed that up last year with a loss to Sayles.

Nelson has some power (5 TKO/KO wins), but Quarantillo showed his toughness against Carlyle.

The big difference in this fight is striking. Quarantillo averages 7.43 SLpM and 2.82 SApM. Nelson is coming into the fight averaging 2.73 SLpM and his defense has been horrendous (6.35 SApM).

If Ferreira can KO Nelson, I expect Quarantillo to do the same and continue building hype.

Best Bet: Billy Quarantillo ITD (+115)

I’m going with these three bets for UFC on ESPN+ 35.

There are no parlay picks this week, as there aren’t many favorites I trust on Saturday.

UFC on ESPN+ 35 Betting Lines

Angela Hill (-130) vs. Michelle Waterson (+100)

Khama Worthy (-140) vs. Ottman Azaitar (+110)

Andrea Lee (-315) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (+255)

Mike Rodriguez (-255) vs. Ed Herman (+205)

Billy Quarantillo (-250) vs. Kyle Nelson (+200)

Tyson Nam (-125) vs. Matt Schnell (-105)

Julia Avila (-305) vs. Sijara Eubanks (+245)

Roosevelt Roberts (-120) vs. Matt Frevola (-110)

Bobby Green (-255) vs. Alan Patrick (+205)

Frank Camacho (-230) vs. Brok Weaver (+180)

Bryan Barberena (-272) vs. Anthony Ivy (+217)

Sabina Mazo (-255) vs. Justine Kish (+205)