UFC on ESPN+ 36 Odds: Covington vs. Woodley Picks

We’ve been on a great UFC run here at ScoresAndStats and 2020 has been a great year overall.

This week the UFC is hosting one more free event at the UFC APEX facility. Next week, the UFC is heading back to “Fight Island” (Abu Dhabi) for a pay-per-view fight card (UFC 253).

I’m now on a 9-1 run (including parlays) the last three events for +11.1 units, including 3-0 last Saturday.

Let’s try to continue stacking up before a big UFC 253 event next week.

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Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley Prediction

Fight Odds: Covington (-355) vs. Woodley (+275)

This fight has been a long time coming. Initially, they were supposed to fight back in 2018, but that had to be shelved due to injuries and negotiations, but they’ll meet in the cage on Saturday night.

Covington (15-2) is coming off a loss to Usman (TKO in 5th round), which snapped a 7-fight winning streak. Woodley (19-5-1) hasn’t won since 2018 – losing to Usman (2019) and Burns (2020).

Both of Woodley’s losses were by decision, though. In fact, Woodley has never been stopped in the UFC. His last loss by stoppage was when Marquardt knocked him out back in 2012 (Strikeforce).

Covington isn’t known as a finisher either. His last stoppage win was a TKO against Griffin at UFC 202 back in 2016. His last five wins have all come by decision, which includes two 5-round decisions.

Woodley is a low-volume counter-striker (2.38 SLpM), whereas Covington is all about volume (4.17 SLpM). Covington also averages 4.91 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Woodley has 90% TDD.

This could be a bit of a snoozer if these two guys don’t want to exchange.

Covington clearly has an edge in this fight, but Woodley has stated he plans on coming out striking in this fight. Still, at the end of the day, that’s all talk. I’m on Covington to win by decision.

Best Bet: Colby Covington by Decision (-140)

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Donald Cerrone vs. Niko Price Prediction

Fight Odds: Cerrone (+125) vs. Price (-155)

In the co-main event, Cerrone (36-15-0-1) is fighting Price (14-4-0-1). This is going to be an exciting fight and will likely end quickly, as both guys are going to come out swinging for the fences.

Cerrone has lost his last four fights and he was knocked out in three of those losses.

Price has alternated wins and losses for the most part since joining the UFC, but you can’t deny that his fights are exciting. He’s just 6-4-0-1 in the UFC, but apart from the NC, all 10 fights ended early.

Price has only had one professional fight need the judges’ scorecards.

Cerrone averages 4.33 SLpM and Price averages 4.32 SLpM. Both guys eat a lot of strikes too. Price averages 5.46 SApM and Cerrone averages 4.27 SApM. Price will have a 3’’ reach advantage.

Price is just 30 years old, whereas Cerrone is 37 years old. Price is tough and my money will be on the favorite to win. Cerrone is a popular underdog, but I just don’t see it happening.

Best Bet: Niko Price ML (-155) at America’s Bookie

Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos Prediction

Fight Odds: Dern (-167) vs. Markos (+137)

Also, on the main card, is Dern (8-1) against Markos (10-8-1). Dern should be a bigger favorite here. She will be once the live betting odds are up after the first round that’s for sure.

Markos is a UFC veteran, joining the promotion back in 2014, but she has never been able to string multiple wins together. Dern is 3-1 in the UFC with submission wins against Brundage and Cifers.

Markos is experienced and could pull off the upset, but the most likely outcome is that Dern will be able to lock in a submission once Markos makes a mistake. Dern ML is too tempting to pass up.

Best Bet: Mackenzie Dern ML (-167) at America’s Bookie

UFC on ESPN+ 36 Parlay Predictions

Here’s my UFC on ESPN+ 36 parlay for Saturday night:

Chimaev ML + Newson/Costa ITD + Dern ML (+174 Odds)

Khamzat Chimaev looked great in his win against McKee. He looks like the real deal to me and he’ll be able to move past the veteran Gerald Meerschaert with relative ease.

Journey Newson and Randy Costa fight in the prelims on Saturday. Both of these guys are finishers and have terrible defense, so it’s likely this fight will end in the first or second round.

UFC on ESPN+ 36 Betting Lines

Colby Covington (-355) vs. Tyron Woodley (+275)

Niko Price (-155) vs. Donald Cerrone (+125)

Khamzat Chimaev (-392) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+302)

Johnny Walker (-130) vs. Ryan Spann (+100)

Mackenzie Dern (-167) vs. Randa Markos (+137)

Kevin Holland (-255) vs. Darren Stewart (+205)

Mirsad Bektic vs. TBD

Mayra Beuno Silva (-250) vs. Mara Romero Borella (+200)

Jordan Espinoza (-115) vs. David Dvorak (-115)

Jessica-Rose Clark (-225) vs. Sarah Alpar (+175)

Journey Newson (-145) vs. Randy Costa (+115)

Andre Ewell (-215) vs. Irwin Rivera (+170)

TJ Laramie (-292) vs. Darrick Minner (+232)