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Avid NFL bettors love to wager on season-long NFL player props, especially when they pertain to the quarterback position.
While props for most passing yards and passing touchdowns normally top the list, there are few props covering some dubious achievements as well. The one at the top of this week’s list is most interceptions in the regular season. Here is a closer look at where the best betting value for this prop might be.
Betting Favorites to Throw the Most INTs
Leading this prop list at +800 is Sam Darnold, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Zach Wilson. The issue with betting on any of the three is actual playing time in the regular season.
Darnold is looking to jump-start his young NFL career as the probable starting quarterback for the Carolina Panthers. He started 12 games for the New York Jets last season and tossed 11 interceptions. That pace would have probably led the way if he had played all 16 games.
Fitzpatrick is a journeyman that tends to make an initial splash wherever he lands. He is currently with the Washington Football Team after tossing eight interceptions in nine games last year while still with the Miami Dolphins.
As the top rookie on the list of favorites, Wilson add some value to his odds as the potential starter in New York for the Jets. He would have to be the top-valued favorite among the three given his expected role as starter in New York. The Jets are still a very bad team and the picks might add up fast if Wilson is left to fend on his own for all 17 games this season as an NFL baptism by fire.
Most Regular Season Interceptions Value Bets
Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions and Daniel Jones of the New York Giants fill this category at +900 odds to throw the most interceptions this season.
Goff was traded to the Lions as a replacement for long-time veteran Matthew Stafford. Goff got the raw end of that deal with a Detroit team that is predicted to finish last in the NFC North. Stafford will get his chance to run the Rams’ offense after Goff wore out his welcome in LA with 13 interceptions in 15 games.
Jones should hold onto the starting role in New York. He played in 14 games last season and threw 10 interceptions. He tends to be careless with the ball but that results in too many fumbles.
Between the two, the value play would be Goff as he tries to press things in his new starting role with Detroit.
2021 Most NFL Interceptions – Stretching the Odds
It would be hard to ignore Jameis Winston at +1200 and Carson Wentz at +1300 as excellent value plays. Winston is in line for the starting job with the New Orleans Saints following the retirement of future Hall of Famer Drew Brees.
The former Florida State standout is notorious for throwing the ball up for grabs. The issue with this bet is Saints’ head coach Sean Payton. If Winston does not take care of the ball, he can quickly turn to Taysom Hill as a more conservative choice as starter.
Wentz tied Denver’s Drew Lock for top honors last season after tossing 15 interceptions in just 12 games for Philadelphia. Shipped off to the Indianapolis Colts in a trade, he is now trying to resurrect his career under the guidance of head coach Frank Reich, who used to be his offensive coordinator in his first few seasons with the Eagles.
Staying true to form, Wentz is nursing a foot injury that required surgery. However, initial reports suggest that he could be in the lineup on opening day against Seattle. If he can stay healthy and start all 17 games, Wentz offers the most betting value of any quarterback on the board for this prop.
