2024 AAC Conference Football Odds and Predictions

The AAC has been considered the strongest of the Group of 5 conferences, having earned seven of the 10 New Year’s Six bowl game slots since 2014. That could very well happen in 2024 even as the conference loses its best team from a year ago. 

No worries, though, as Memphis and head coach Ryan Silverfield look to improve on their 10-3, Liberty Bowl-winning season of a year ago. Silverfield returns the favorite to win the AAC Most Valuable Player Award, quarterback Seth Henigan. He’ll guide an offense that averaged 39.4 points per game last season. It’s possible the Tigers could be in the race for one of the 12 College Football Playoff berths this season. Keep an eye on the NCAA football championship race here at Scores & Stats.

Most AAC teams won’t begin conference play until late September. Several of the schools will play non-conference games against some big-time opponents. South Florida is up first when they travel to Alabama on Sept. 7. Memphis is at Florida State, Tulane is at Oklahoma, and UAB travels to Arkansas all on Sept. 14.

The conference will close the 2024 college football regular season with the biggest rivalry in college football – Army vs. Navy. The two service academies will meet on Dec. 14 in Landover, Md., to close out the 2024 season. Scores & Stats will have all of your NCAA football odds all season long.

AAC Conference Realignment

The AAC once again has undergone some offseason change though it was not as drastic as last year. Prior to the 2023 season, the AAC lost three schools to the Big 12 and welcomed six new additions. This season, just one team is gone and one is a new member.

SMU, the 2023 AAC champion, has departed for the ACC. Army, which has been independent almost since the beginning of time, joins the AAC. The Black Knights will join the conference as a football-only member. 

2024 AAC Conference Odds

Check out the latest AAC Conference odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Who Wins the 2024 AAC Football Championship?

Of the 14 teams in the AAC, there are four given better than +1000 odds. South Florida somehow found a way to go 7-6 last season under first-year head coach Alex Golesh. The Bulls are the outlier. Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA all have experience winning conference championships.

UTSA won two straight Conference USA championships before joining the AAC last season. Memphis is a two-time AAC champion (2014, 2019) and Tulane played for the conference championship last year after winning it in 2022. All three teams have what it takes to win this year’s AAC football championship.

Memphis +225

• Head coach: Ryan Silverfield
• 2023 Record: 10-3 (6-2)

The Tigers are the favorite to capture the AAC crown now that SMU is off to the ACC. Henigan returns to lead the sixth-best scoring offense in the country a year ago. He’ll have the added benefit of South Carolina transfer running back Mario Anderson. Silverfield also returns WRs Roc Taylor (69-1,083) and Demeer Blankumsee (53-901) among six returning offensive starters. 

The defense did give up some points last season – 28.8 per game, 92nd in the nation – and the unit will need to improve. The good news is that leading tackler Chandler Martin (95 tackles) is back. In addition, Martin had 17 tackles for loss and led the Tigers in sacks. If Silverfield and the Memphis defense improve, a New Year’s Six bowl is a definite possibility.

Tulane +350

• Head coach: Jon Sumrall
• 2023 Record: 11-3 (8-0)

Former head coach Willie Fritz did a wonderful job turning Tulane into a perennial AAC contender. The Green Wave went 23-5 over the last two seasons, but they will have to replace QB Michael Pratt, now a Green Bay Packer. Oregon transfer Ty Thompson (6-4, 224) should be the guy to do so. He will have AAC Rookie of the Year Makhi Hughes (1,378 yds.) to take off some of the pressure.

New head coach Jon Sumrall is no slouch either. He comes from Troy where he won 23 games and two conference championships over the last two seasons. The defense returns five starters and was a top-20 unit against the run. The expectations still run high at Tulane, which has played in five bowl games in the past six seasons.

UTSA +550

• Head coach: Jeff Traylor
• 2023 Record: 9-4 (7-1)

The Roadrunners lost to Tulane in the final week of the regular season last year. Otherwise, UTSA would have played for a third consecutive conference title. Traylor’s squad won two consecutive Conference USA championships before coming to the AAC last year. This season will be the first in seven – yes, seven – without QB Frank Stevens. Owen McCown, a former starter at Colorado, is expected to replace Stevens.

Traylor has built the UTSA program around a strong running game and a bend-but-don’t-break defense. The Roadrunners return six starters on each side of the ball and also got a number of standouts via the transfer portal. One of them is former five-star cornerback Denver Harris who played at both Texas A&M and LSU. That’s a good thing since Traylor must replace AAC Defensive Player of the Year Trey Moore.

2024 AAC Football Championship Prediction

Memphis is the favorite to win the AAC, but it isn’t going to be easy for the Tigers. They will face the conference’s three biggest contenders – Tulane, UTSA, and South Florida – all on the road. That’s why I like the surprise pick – the Bulls. South Florida will take on Alabama and Miami early and then gets a two-game stretch – at Tulane and Memphis at home – that will decide their season.

Bet: South Florida +600

Will Any AAC Football Teams Make the Playoffs?

It’s definitely a longshot, but could an AAC team make the playoffs. Tulane and South Florida both have two games against elite Power 5 opponents. UTSA has one against Texas and Memphis plays Florida State on Sept. 14. Remember, it’s the five highest-ranked conference champions that make the playoff. 

Bet: Pass

The Best AAC Football Teams Overs

Jeff Traylor has done an outstanding job at UTSA. He’s 39-14 in four seasons and he’s taken his program to four consecutive bowl games. This season, his team avoids South Florida and Tulane and gets AAC favorite Memphis at home. The Roadrunners play at Texas early, but also have non-conference gimmes against Kennesaw State and Houston Christian.

Bet: UTSA Over 8.5 Wins

Tulsa limped through a 4-8 campaign in 2023, starting the season 3-2 but finishing 1-7 over the final eight games. QB Kirk Francis was a walk-on who played the final three games of last season, averaging 297.7 passing yards per game. The schedule is favorable too with a couple of non-conference games that are very winnable and Tulsa doesn’t play Memphis or Tulane. 

Bet: Tulsa Over 4.5 Wins

The Best AAC Football Teams Unders

Mike Houston and ECU went 2-10 last season and now the Pirates head coach has two retread quarterbacks – Jake Garcia formerly of Missouri and Katin Houser who played at Michigan State. One of the worst offenses in the nation last year, ECU returns five offensive starters. The Pirates play Appalachian State, Liberty and UTSA in successive weeks early in the season. The only plus is they avoid Memphis, Tulane, and South Florida. Still, 6.5?

Bet: East Carolina Under 6.5 Wins

Eric Morris begins his second season at North Texas. The Mean Green went 5-7 last season and had one of the absolute worst defenses in the nation. NT gave up 37.1 points per game in 2023. That won’t win many games. They do return six starters, but the offense only returns three. North Texas faces Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA and plays at Texas Tech early in the season.

Bet: North Texas Under 5.5 Wins

The Biggest AAC Football Team Sleeper

South Florida has been a forgotten program for many years. It’s a sleeping giant though and second-year head coach Alex Golesh just may have the answers. Last season, USF was a top-30 offense and returns nine starters from a unit that averaged 31.9 points per game. QB Byrum Brown (6-5, 210) is back after becoming just the second Bulls player to compile over 4,000 yards (3,292 passing, 809 rushing) of total offense.

Brown will have his two top receivers – Sean Atkins (92-1,064) and Naiem Simmons (39-637) – as well as Purdue transfer Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen. Four offensive line starters are back and eight starters on defense return. The Bulls are listed at +600 to win the AAC, but they will still be a surprise in the conference race.

AAC Heisman Watch

The only real shot the AAC has at a Heisman Trophy is Henigan, the Memphis quarterback. He’s had tremendous numbers – 3,883 yards, 32 TDs last year – throughout his career. Memphis will likely challenge for the AAC title as well as a shot at a College Football Playoff berth. That should put Henigan among the sleepers to win the Heisman.

Henigan is currently a +25000 longshot to win the award. You can check out the latest Heisman Trophy odds here at Scores & Stats. A big performance against Florida State in mid-September could go a long way in getting Henigan some national recognition. It’s highly unlikely that Henigan has a shot at the Heisman. The last time the award went to a player who was not from a Power 5 school was in 1990 when QB Ty Detmer won the award playing for BYU (then a non-Power 5 school).