2024-25 NFL AFC Championship Odds and Predictions

The AFC Conference is deep this year with at least five or six teams that can compete for the conference crown. However, what makes the AFC more dangerous than the NFC Conference, is that the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs reside in the American Football Conference.  

Not only are the Chiefs the favorites to win the AFC for a third straight year, but they’re also the betting favorites to win Super Bowl 59. The Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans are all nipping at the heels of the Chiefs, according to the latest NFL odds. Can any of these AFC contenders dethrone the defending Super Bowl champs?  

Let’s take a look at the latest AFC Championship odds, prop bets and make our 2024-25 AFC Championship predictions.  

AFC Championship Odds

AFC Championship Favorites 

The following NFL teams are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2024-25 AFC Championship, according to the top sports betting sites: 

Kansas City Chiefs +325  

The Kansas City Chiefs are not resting on their back-to-back Super Bowl victories. They’ve been aggressive in the offseason by adding more weapons on offense for QB Patrick Mahomes.  

The Chiefs signed WR Marquise Brown, who can definitely hit the home run. They also drafted Xavier Worthy, who can streak down the field like nobody in the NFL, if his 40-yard dash time of 4.21 seconds (at the NFL Scouting Combine) is any indication. We’re sure that at some point, Rashee Rice will be able to play after a potential suspension. In other words, Patrick Mahomes is scarier than he’s been the last couple of seasons. That’s the last thing opponents want to see. 

Mahomes is the best when it comes to performing on the big stage. He is the best when it comes to making positive plays out of nothing. He is the best when it comes to doing whatever it takes to win, including running a long way for a first down with an injured ankle. All of this counts for quite a bit when you are taking dead aim at the Super Bowl.  

Since Mahomes has been the starting quarterback, the Chiefs have never missed appearing in the AFC Conference Championship game. And they have won three of their four Super Bowl appearances. 

We also know that the Chiefs will bring some defense to the table, and Steve Spagnuolo is pretty crafty as the coordinator. If you’re a backer of theirs, the one thing that might concern you is that they really didn’t add new impact defenders. But what they have on hand is still good. 

Kansas City is the defending Super Bowl champs and the king of both the AFC and AFC West until another team can knock them off the throne. Can the Chiefs win their third straight AFC Championship? 

Baltimore Ravens +475 

Speaking of what kind of impact a special teamer can have, think about Justin Tucker, the most accurate placekicker in NFL history, with a 90.5% rate on field goals. His contract is the property of the Baltimore Ravens, who better have outstanding special units, considering their head coach, John Harbaugh, is a former special teams assistant.  

If Baltimore needs a big kick in a playoff situation, we’re pretty confident Tucker can make it. As for some of the other conference kickers, we’re not as confident in their kicking abilities when the lights are the brightest. 

There’s a lot to like about Lamar Jackson, the top dual-threat quarterback we’ve got today. Interestingly though, he’s got two MVP awards and the same number of playoff victories (a 2-4 record, to be precise). To win this conference, he’d have to go to a place he’s never been before. 

The defense is there for sure. And one way or another, they’re going to figure out a way to control the ball on the ground. But when it comes down to it, will Jackson be able to overcome one of these top AFC North defenses, geared up to stop him come playoff time? 

Buffalo Bills +700  

The Buffalo Bills are missing some things. Notably, they are missing Stefon Diggs. Who fills that role now? And they need to improve their defensive performance. They are fortunate in the sense that quarterback Josh Allen can take matters into his own hands from time to time, but that sometimes results in turnovers. With numerous roster changes, this team will have to prove that they’re a real contender in the AFC. 

Cincinnati Bengals +700 

We don’t have to tell you that Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He has faced down the Kansas City Chiefs in the past and come out of it with a Super Bowl berth. But he’s now coming off a season-ending injury, and frankly, we don’t know the status of the #2 receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals.  

The front office wanted to put the franchise tag on Tee Higgins, but literally as we started typing this, he just signed it. So, he’s going to be with the team, but he did very little work in the off-season, including the OTA’s or the mini-camp. For a guy who had nagging injuries last year and made just 42 receptions, it’s not the place you want to be if you’re Higgins or the Bengals. But it’s the business of football. 

This team had a hard time stopping others last year. The defense gave up 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and was worst in net yards per passing attempt allowed. Seriously, how much could that possibly jump? The personnel changes they’ve made have to work for this team to contend for the AFC Championship.   

Houston Texans +800 

When people ask me about the Houston Texans, I mention that they are definitely a team of the future. Whether that future is NOW, is going to be determined largely by what quarterback CJ Stroud can do with his receivers. 

Stroud threw just five interceptions last year, but he’ll have a target on him this season, so it will be difficult for any kind of a repeat. Management saw this, which is why they not only made sure they got tight end Dalton Schultz’s name on a new deal, but also traded for a top wide receiver.   

Maybe Stefon Diggs can be a diva. But all the Texans are interested in is whether he can beat enemy defenses or not. He has caught more passes than anyone else the last four seasons and is someone Stroud did not have at his disposal last year. Another receiver, Tank Dell, had an injury that kept him out for part of last season, and he also got shot in a bar incident this past spring. But all indications are that he’ll be ready to go when he has to.  

The defense has three dynamite pass rushers, which means that they should be able to cause headaches for opposing quarterbacks. And they have a QB with ice water in his veins. They are the clear-cut favorites in the AFC South, but can they upset the top teams in the AFC? 

AFC Conference Sleepers 

With exciting offseason moves and solid NFL Drafts, these AFC sleepers could potentially rise up to challenge for the AFC Championship:  

Miami Dolphins +1000 

The Miami Dolphins are the most explosive team in the NFL. New acquisitions like Odell Beckham Jr., Jonnu Smith, Malik Washington and Jaylen Wright will only add to what they’ve got. We don’t have a lot of reservations about Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. They run the ball. They should have a formidable secondary. 

But they don’t come off as an all-weather team. And if that proves to be the case, they are not a team one would want to invest in when looking at a proposition like this. Their best shot is to win the AFC East and do it with the best record in the conference, so they can get the home field. Can they do that? 

New York Jets +1200  

The New York Jets are a team with a world-class defense. In fact, they have one of the best defenses in the entire National Football League. The general feeling was that having Aaron Rodgers in the saddle was going to make the whole thing complete.  

As it was, however, Rodgers’ arm was starting to decline in his final season in Green Bay. Sure, he can’t be outstanding in his role, but it was just bad manners that he was inexcusably absent from the mandatory mini-camp. Was there some pressing matter that was more important than taking a step toward a winning season? 

Los Angeles Chargers +1800 

We don’t have any doubt that Jim Harbaugh can turn around the fortunes of the Los Angeles Chargers. But whether he can do it this year to the extent that he makes them a contender for the Super Bowl is another question.  

Harbaugh starts in a good place because he has Justin Herbert at quarterback. And, we love the hiring of Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. The Bolts will be able to punish some people on the ground. 

Cleveland Browns +2200  

The Cleveland Browns have some of those characteristics that you would ideally associate with a team that does well in the Playoffs. They’ve got a rugged defense (we must mention coordinator Jim Schwartz here) and the ability to run the ball on offense.  

But we have to be guarded in making any grandiose predictions about what Nick Chubb can do coming off his knee injury, and he’s the guy they really need. QB Deshaun Watson does not have a history of Playoff success or being a quarterback that can beat the top teams when it really counts. 

Jacksonville Jaguars +2200 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of those teams where if everything comes together at once, they could have a lot of success. Head coach Doug Pederson placed an emphasis on acquiring players who come from winning teams and have playoff experience.  

Three examples of that are cornerback Ronald Darby (Baltimore), defensive tackle Arik Armstead (San Francisco) and wide receiver Gabe Davis (Buffalo). The AFC South division is no longer wide open for them, so they have to chase Houston. 

Possible AFC Championship Contenders in 2025-26 

In all likelihood, these AFC teams are still a year or two away from being a real AFC contenders: 

Pittsburgh Steelers +2500 

The acquisition of QB Justin Fields isn’t the thing that gets the Pittsburgh Steelers fans excited, because he is likely going to be sitting and learning how to be a real NFL quarterback. Well, that’s unless coach Mike Tomlin has it in mind for him to have some special packages, like Kordell Stewart once had in the Steel City. 

The guy who has to be the leader is Russell Wilson, who may not be the quarterback he once was but still possesses some ability and has the benefit of having been a Super Bowl champion. Their defensive playmakers are gnarly enough that I can see them doing enough to get back to the postseason. From there, anything could happen. Tomlin does not know losing (all 17 seasons at .500 or better, usually better).  

Indianapolis Colts +2800 

Wouldn’t it be fun to see Jonathan Taylor barreling through opposing defenses again? We’re not sure that’s going to happen, at least to the degree that the Indianapolis Colts will need. And if we are talking about actually winning the AFC, Anthony Richardson isn’t ready to engineer that kind of thing right now. 

No Chance at Making NFC Championship Game 

These NFL teams have no chance at making the AFC Championship game in the near future: 

Las Vegas Raiders +5000  

Antonio Pierce got the Las Vegas Raiders all fired up last season. How much of a carryover are we going to see? Another question is whether Pierce will make the right decision at the quarterback spot. He would really have loved to be in a position to swing a deal for Jayden Daniels, who he knew from his days as an assistant at Arizona State. But that didn’t happen. So, the Raiders are left with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell.  

I am not so arrogant that I think I know Pierce’s team better than he does. But Minshew seems to be the guy who can help them pick up more wins this year, while O’Connell comes off as a guy who will settle into a backup role in the NFL, and certainly not as anybody’s “quarterback of the future.” Neither guy will lead them into the Super Bowl, though. 

Denver Broncos +7500 

The Denver Broncos have a defense that appears to be headed in the right direction. But how much of the season will Sean Payton use up before deciding rookie Bo Nix is his starting quarterback? Not that it would give Denver a real chance to plant that AFC title banner at Empower Field. 

Tennessee Titans +8000  

This is one of the most fascinating teams coming into the season. You really have to applaud the Tennessee Titans for their aggressiveness, as they made some impact acquisitions like Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Tony Pollard, L’Jarius Sneed, Lloyd Cushenberry, JC Latham and more.  

They have an offensive line “doctor” aboard in Bill Callahan (the coach’s dad). RB Tyjae Spears can’t take over games like Derrick Henry, but then, Derrick Henry wasn’t doing that anymore anyway.  

The variable here is Will Levis. He’s got a lot of attributes, but can he take command quickly and prove himself to be a legitimate NFL starter. It’s not outside the realm of possibility. 

New England Patriots +8000 

I’m not sure what the New England Patriots are going to do this year. Are they going to spend this season having Drake Maye “learn” by not playing, while Jacoby Brissett wins a few games, then try to add some offensive support next season, or ease Maye into the lineup and have him run for his life?   

2024-25 AFC Championship Predictions  

Now that we’ve laid out the prospects of each AFC team above, let’s take a look at some of the top AFC Conference prop bets and make our predictions: 

2024-25 AFC #1 Seed 

The Browns (.547), Ravens (.536) and Steelers (.533) have the toughest strength of schedules heading into the 2024-25 NFL season. The 4^th member of the AFC North division, Cincinnati Bengals (.502), have the 16^th toughest scheduled which should benefit them in a very competitive division.  

The Texans (.526) and Bills (.516) are the next contenders with the toughest schedules for the upcoming season. The Chiefs (.502) are also tied with the Bengals at 16^th. However, the AFC West is a far inferior division to the AFC North this year and I think this will be the difference in which team wins the top seed for the conference.  

It’s a scary thing to say, but it appears that the AFC will go through Arrowhead Stadium this year as the Chiefs should finish the season as the conference #1 seed. 

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+350) 

To Reach 2024-25 AFC Championship Game 

I think it’s smart to automatically pencil the Chiefs into the AFC Championship game. They have played in six straight AFC Championship contests and have gone 4-2 over that span. The only question is which team will meet KC in the title game.  

Over the last four AFC Championship games, the Chiefs have played against the Bills, Bengals twice, and the Ravens last year. KC split with the Bengals in their two AFC Championship games. Those three teams are right behind the Chiefs as the odds-on favorites to make the game.  

Of the Ravens, Bengals and Bills, it’s Baltimore that has the best chance to meet the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game for the second straight year. The Ravens have made some solid moves to improve their team, while the Bills and Bengals have questions to answer before we can put our full confidence in them.  

Houston is one team to watch out for. They could easily beat out the Bengals, Ravens or Bills to meet the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. However, we need to see more from them to ensure they’re going to be a real contender. It’s easy to hunt the favorites as they did last year. It’s a lot harder when you become the hunted.  

As we sit in the summer months before the season even begins, the safest approach to this prop bet is taking the Chiefs and the Ravens based on their Playoff experience and roster additions.  

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+105), Baltimore Ravens (+190) 

2024-25 AFC Championship Winner 

“To be the man, you gotta beat the man.” Yes, anytime I can quote Ric Flair, I’m going to. With that said, this quote is appropriate for the AFC Conference. Until someone can beat the Chiefs, you have to ride with them.  

Unfortunately for the rest of the AFC, the Chiefs have added weapons on the offense which is going to make them even more dangerous. Additionally, the AFC West is a lot weaker than the North, South or East divisions.  

This means that the Chiefs can rack up more wins on the year, clinch the top seed in the AFC, and make the conference go through Arrowhead. It’s truly a nightmare scenario for the rest of the AFC contenders. Take the Chiefs to win the AFC before their odds shrink during the regular season. 

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs +325 

Which AFC Division Wins The 2024-25 AFC Championship? 

• AFC North (+140) 

• AFC West (+230) 

• AFC East (+300) 

• AFC South (+425) 

The AFC North is the toughest division in the conference. In fact, it should be the best division in the NFL with four teams that should all have winning records. Let’s not forget that three of the four teams made the Playoffs last year. With a returning Joe Burrow, we could easily see three teams from this division in the Playoffs this year.  

The AFC South is the Texans to lose. The AFC East will be a battle between the Bills, Dolphins and Jets. However, it’s the AFC West that has the defending Super Bowl champ and the AFC team to beat this year. Kansas City got better, while the rest of the teams in the West got worse. I expect the Chiefs to run away with the AFC West, take the top seed in the AFC, and represent the conference in the Super Bowl for the third straight year.  

Bet: AFC West (+230)