2024-25 NFL AFC East Odds and Predictions

The AFC East might wind up being the most entertaining Division in the NFL this season. The division promises to be very tight with three NFL teams that could potentially make the Playoffs: Buffalo Bills, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.

The Buffalo Bills won the AFC East in 2023-24, but it was a tight squeeze as they had to win their last five games, including a victory in Miami over the Dolphins in the regular season finale.

That victory gave them a tie-breaker edge over the Fins, and honestly, it was Miami’s own fault that they found themselves getting frozen in Kansas City in a postseason loss to the Chiefs. The Bills also went on to lose to KC in the Playoffs.

Last year, expectations were high for the New York Jets, who had just traded for Aaron Rodgers. But as all NFL fans know, that hope went up in smoke when Rodgers tore his Achilles on the first series of the first game.

The dynamic is a little different in the AFC East this year. The Bills have seen a large roster turnover, while the Dolphins have added to their offensive arsenal. And, the Jets certainly hope they have better luck with Rodgers this season. We already know they have a playoff-level defense. The New England Patriots are an afterthought with a rebuilding squad.  

Let’s take a look at the latest AFC East odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our 2024-25 AFC East Division predictions. Will any of these AFC East teams be a Super Bowl 59 contender?

AFC East Division

2024 Buffalo Bills Season Preview

The Buffalo Bills looked kind of awful at times, but when they got their act together, they were better than anyone else in the division. At one point, head coach Sean McDermott felt his offense lacked enough imagination that he had to make a change in the coordinator position. So out went Ken Dorsey to be replaced by Joe Brady. With five wins down the stretch, Buffalo stole the division from Miami, winning the season’s final game and thus completing a sweep of the Dolphins.

Brady, you may remember, was the guy who guided Joe Burrow to a Heisman Trophy and a previously moribund LSU passing game to a national championship. He had a short tenure with the Carolina Panthers, who play musical chairs with coaches.

In Buffalo, he’s got challenges. The Bills have lost the two wide receivers who were targeted the most last season. Stefon Diggs, who caught 107 passes for 1183 yards, was traded to Houston, and Gabriel Davis, who averaged 16.6 yards per catch, departed as a free agent to Jacksonville.

During Buffalo’s OTA’s (organized team activities), Brady remarked, “There’s only one guy in the receiver room that’s even caught a ball from Josh (Allen) in a game.”

That guy is Khalil Shakir, who had 39 catches for 611 yards in 2023. He’s likely to play a much bigger role this coming season, along with tight end Dalton Kincaid, who had 73 receptions.

The Bills are also hoping for a lot out of rookie Keon Coleman, a 6-4 wideout from Florida State who went with the first pick of the second round after Buffalo traded out of the first round. Coleman ran a 4.6 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine but is a versatile athlete; he played some basketball at Michigan State before his transfer to FSU.

Brady has been quick to point out that he is anxious to spread it around, but ultimately the ball is in the hands of Josh Allen. Sometimes Allen is enough of a gunslinger that he forces plays, and that is reflected in the 18 interceptions he threw last year.

Of course, Allen is also known for running like a fullback; he had 524 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Brady probably wishes he didn’t risk injury so much, and so the contributions of James Cook are going to be of much value. Cook, who is the brother of four-time Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook, had 1122 yards in the regular season and is capable of more.

The Buffalo offense was the most efficient in the NFL on third down last season, converting just a shade under 50%. But if you’re a Bills backer, you might be a little more concerned about the defense, which surrendered 4.6 yards per rush. Matt Milano, one of the league’s top linebackers, broke his leg and is on the road to recovery. They could use him.

2024-25 Buffalo Bills Win Total

• Over 10.5 (+130)
• Under 10.5 (-160)

The Bills enter the season with the 5^th toughest schedule at .516, as they’re tied with the New York Giants. In fact, Buffalo is set to face all four teams that made the Conference Championship Games last year and the two Super Bowl 58 teams: Chiefs and 49ers.

They have a tough stretch in the first half of the season with a Week 2 game against the Dolphins on TNF. From there, they face the AFC South Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Week 3, the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4’s Sunday Night Football game, then at the Houston Texans in Week 5 and a Monday Night Football matchup against the New York Jets in Week 6.

The reality is, Buffalo needs a strong start to the year unlike last season. With a Week 12 Bye, the Bills must be at least 6-5 to have a real shot at the Playoffs. Following the Bye Week, Buffalo takes on the 49ers, Rams, Lions, Jets and Patriots twice.

Oddsmakers feel that the Bills will be lucky to get double-digit wins on the year. I see this team surprising critics and at least matching their 11-win total from last year. Take the Over and the betting value.

Bet: Over 10.5 wins (+130)

2024-25 Buffalo Bills Record After 5 Games

• 3 Wins (+175)
• 2 Wins (+210)
• 4 Wins (+350)
• 1 Win (+450)
• 5 Wins (+1400)
• 0 Wins (+2000)

As mentioned above, the Bills have a brutal stretch from Week 2 to Week 6. The only “easy game” over the first five weeks, is their season opener against the Arizona Cardinals. Three of those first five games are on the road: Dolphins, Ravens and Texans. Only their matchups against the Cardinals and Jaguars will be at home.

With that said, Buffalo is looking at a 2-3 or 3-2 record over the first five games. The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not they win one of those three road games. I believe they get at least one. So, let’s pick the Bills to go 3-2 over their first five contests.

Bet: 3 Wins (+175)

2024-25 Buffalo Bills To Make The Playoffs

• Yes (-185)
• No (+140)

The Buffalo Bills have made the Playoffs in five consecutive seasons and six of the last seven years, after snapping a 17-season Playoff drought. It’s a little bit surprising seeing how some sportsbooks feel that Buffalo will be lucky to pick up 10 wins on the year, but then other sportsbooks still tab them as a Playoff team.

With a loaded AFC Conference, I expect teams to need 11 wins to make the postseason. As mentioned above, I have the Bills winning at least 11 games on the year. So, I see them extending that Playoff streak to six straight years.

Bet: Yes (-185)

2024 Miami Dolphins Season Preview

A 21-14 loss to the Buffalo Bills in the final week of the 2023-24 regular season, was basically the difference between the Miami Dolphins being able to have a playoff game in sunny Florida and being forced to go to freezing-cold Kansas City, where they really didn’t have a chance.

It didn’t have to come to that; the Dolphins fell asleep in a Week 14 game against the Tennessee Titans and blew a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter to a rookie quarterback (Will Levis).

Coach Mike McDaniel came to town with the reputation of being a running game “guru” from his experience with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. But in his first year on the job, the Dolphins were not producing on the ground, ranking down near the bottom of the league.

It was a different story last year, as Miami averaged just over five yards per carry, leading the NFL, and Raheem Mostert, who was with the Niners when McDaniel was there, was joined by rookie speed demon De’Von Achane, who averaged a monstrous 7.8 ypc on the way to 800 yards.

Of course, the major thing here was the maturation of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and a passing game that would score from anywhere on the field. With Tyreek Hill they have the ultimate quick strike guy, and he chased the NFL record for a while before settling for 1799 yards and 13 touchdowns.

He had an ideal running mate in Jaylen Waddle, who topped 1000 yards. Tua had 4624 yards passing, and demonstrated what he could do if he got a little protection, although he still has some doubters.

Miami has added to its collection of weapons. Odell Beckham Jr., who may not have what he once did but still can produce, signed a one-year free-agent contract. Beckham’s 16.1 yards per catch with Baltimore last season was the highest average of his career.

Jaylen Wright, who runs a sub-4.4 in the 40 and averaged 7.4 ypc in the SEC with Tennessee, will be another speedster in the backfield. Jonnu Smith will likely be the new starting tight end. He had the best season of his career in Atlanta in 2023, with 50 catches for 582 yards.

The offense ranked #1 in total yards in the NFL. The defense wasn’t as imposing, but it was middle-of-the-road at worst.  They’re going to miss Christian Wilkins anchoring the defensive line. Pass rushers Bradley Chubb (knee) and Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) suffered season-ending injuries, so they are on the comeback trail.

Let’s see what first-round pick Chop Robinson can contribute in the way of pressure. Jordyn Brooks was added as linebacker, and Kendall Fuller and Jordan Poyer came on board to bolster what could be an outstanding secondary.

2024-25 Miami Dolphins Win Total

• Over 9.5 (-130)
• Under 9.5 (+100)

The Miami Dolphins are tied with the Jets for an O/U of 9.5 games with most sportsbooks. They’re tied for the 24^th toughest schedule at .488. That’s rather surprising considering this was a Playoff team last year. In fact, an O/U of 9.5 is rather low for a Playoff team that added more talent to its roster.

The Dolphins will need to get out to a strong first-half of the season as their final six games on the year are all against Playoff teams from last season. It’s certainly the toughest stretch of the year for Miami as they face: the NFC North Green Bay Packers, Jets twice, Texans, 49ers and the AFC North Cleveland Browns.

A Week 6 Bye is concerning for a team with a tough final stretch. But there is a good chance we could see the Dolphins go 7-4 or 8-3 over their first 11 games as six of them are at home.

I like the Over 9.5 for the Dolphins almost as much as I do the Jets. I think this is a 10-win team at the minimum. There’s great value with the NFL odds for the Over, especially with one of the best offenses in the league.

Bet: Over 9.5 (-130)

2024-25 Miami Dolphins Record After 5 Games

• 3 Wins (+170)
• 4 Wins (+200)
• 2 Wins (+350)
• 5 Wins (+550)
• 1 Win (+900)
• 0 Wins (+4000)

As mentioned, the Dolphins have a Week 6 Bye, which means after their first five games of the year, they will have a week off. As difficult as Miami’s final six games are, their first five games are much easier. So, it’s a tale of two endpoints for Miami that could really dictate their success this year.

As for the first five weeks, I expect Miami to crush it. They open up the season with two home games: Jaguars and Bills. Then they face the Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans and Patriots.

I expect the Dolphins to go at least 3-2. However, I’m predicting a 4-1 start. They should easily beat the Titans, Patriots and Jaguars. The two tough games are against the Bills and a West Coast trip to Seattle. Fortunately, they have 10 days to prepare for that Seahawks game, which bodes well for Miami.

Bet: 4 Wins (+200)

Will The Miami Dolphins Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (-150)
• No (+120)

The Dolphins have made the Playoffs over the last two seasons. I expect this trend to continue. I believe they will be a Wild Card team for the third straight year. If they can remain healthy, Miami will be a real threat to win the AFC East.

Bet: Yes (-150)

2024 New York Jets Season Preview

Well, we may finally see what the New York Jets are capable of with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Rodgers, at age 40, has had to recover from an Achilles injury that robbed him of all but a few plays of the 2023 season. You could have filled MetLife Stadium with all the disappointment.

The Jets were almost cruel in the way they teased their followers immediately after Rodgers went down, rallying behind Zach Wilson and their opportunistic defense to beat Buffalo. After the first seven games, they actually sported a 4-3 record.

But the reality of Wilson ultimately took over. He had eight TD passes and seven INT’s and 6.2 yards an attempt. And now the experiment is over, as he is now a member of the Denver Broncos. New York had other starters who perpetuated the mediocrity. Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle were unappetizing alternatives, and the result was seven losses in the last ten games and a 7-10 record.

What kept the Jets in most games was a defense that really deserves a gold medal, for the disadvantageous position they were put in by the inept offensive unit. Robert Saleh came to the head coaching job with a defensive background, and he and coordinator Jeff Ulbrich fielded one of the best units in the league.

Only one team allowed fewer yards through the air than the Jets did. The 5.5 yards per attempt they yielded was microscopic. And they were second in yards allowed per drive. Sauce Gardner is state-of-the-art at cornerback. DJ Reed, late of Seattle, joins the secondary. All-Pro linebacker Haason Reddick was acquired from Philadelphia for a third-round draft pick.

So, what’s the story on the offensive side of the ball?

A lot was done to accommodate Rodgers, and that included hiring Nathaniel Hackett, off a disaster in Denver, as the O-coordinator. With not much to show in the way of results last season, team brass reportedly considered installing someone for Hackett to more or less report to. But Rodgers strongly offered support for his old friend and colleague (from their Green Bay days).

The Jets have a running back (Breece Hall) who is one of the best in the league when healthy. Last year, he had 994 rushing yards and caught 76 passes. Garrett Wilson is a top-level receiver (95 catches, 1042 yards). Allen Lazard came over from Green Bay to play with Rodgers, and at 28, he should be in a position to contribute.

Mike Williams, who had two 1000-yard seasons for the AFC West Chargers, has come aboard. And Rodgers says that his favorite receiver in the draft was Malachi Corley of Western Kentucky. Running back Braelon Allen gained almost 3500 yards with 35 touchdowns in three years at Wisconsin; he’s only 20 yards old and can offer great support to Hall.

A great running game can take the Jets a long way. And it’s important to protect Rodgers. That’s why it’s critical that they signed five-time All-Pro Tyron Smith to play left tackle, and Olu Fashani of Penn State was their choice with pick #11 in the draft.

The pieces seem to be in place. The optimism is real.

2024-25 New York Jets Win Total

• Over 9.5 (-160)
• Under 9.5 (+130)

Despite having a tough 2023-24 season, the Jets come in with the 12^th toughest schedule (.505). They’re tied with three other teams: NFC East Cowboys, Rams and 49ers.

The Jets have a very winnable stretch of games over the first half of the season. However, like the Bills, New York will benefit from a Week 12 Bye that should give the team rest before closing out the regular season.

If Aaron Rodgers returns to form, this is an easy 10-win team. Even if they go 3-3 in the Division, the Jets can still go 7-4 in their non-divisional games. In fact, an 8-3 record wouldn’t be difficult to imagine. I like this team to flirt with 11 wins and challenge for the AFC East title.

Bet: Over (-160)

2024-25 New York Jets Record After 5 Games

• 3 Wins (+160)
• 4 Wins (+200)
• 2 Wins (+300)
• 5 Wins (+700)
• 1 Win (+1000)
• 0 Wins (+5000)

The Jets have a tough season opener at the NFC West champs San Francisco. However, after that game, they face the Titans Patriots, Broncos and Vikings. New York should easily go 4-1 over their first five games. And, if they can pull off the Week 1 upset against the 49ers, this team could be 5-0 heading into a big MNF clash against the Bills in Week 6.

Bet: 4 Wins (+200)

Will The New York Jets Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (-170)
• No (+140)

The Jets should beat the Titans, Patriots twice, Broncos, Vikings, Steelers, Cardinals, Colts and Jaguars. That’s nine wins right there. Now, they just have to win at least one or two games against the 49ers, Dolphins twice, Bills twice, Seahawks, Rams and Texans.

Since I think the Jets will go at least 3-3, that means they will beat the Dolphins or Bills at least once. So, we’re looking at 11 wins or more for the Jets, which would solidify a Playoff spot.

Bet: Yes (-170)

2024 New England Patriots Season Preview

The New England Patriots were so non-offensive last season that it was, well, offensive. The team was next to last in the NFL in points scored and first downs, dead last in plays per drive, and way down the list in everything else. They scored only 16 touchdowns from scrimmage. They scored in the single digits six times and over 21 points only twice. The Patriots converted only 30% on third downs.

The whole situation was pathetic. And part of the reason for that has to lie at the feet of Bill Belichick, who had two assistants (former NFL head coaches) handling the offense who did not have a background on offense.

Former running back Damien Harris has said that, in 2022, players were confused about why Matt Patricia (a former D-coordinator) and Joe Judge (who had previously been the team’s special teams coach) were, in effect, co-offensive coordinators. And he said that these guys, along with Belichick, screwed up former starting QB Mac Jones. That carried over into 2023.

Well, now Belichick is an ex-head coach after Bill O’Brien could not come up with sufficient offensive answers last season.

There is some continuity in the sense that Jerod Mayo, who spent eight seasons as a player and five seasons as an assistant under Belichick, has taken over the job.

Part of the rebuild is going to center around North Carolina’s Drake Maye, who New England took with the third pick in the draft. Maye is mobile and has a great arm, and if you listen to people, they think he’s going to benefit a great deal from the tutelage of offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.

But he’s not going to be an instant solution. New England has to build the offense out with some weaponry and protection, and that’s a big job. So, the kid will likely sit and learn for a while as they hand the ball to Jacoby Brissett, who’s been a journeyman with five different teams.

They drafted Ja’Lynn Polk, the second-best receiver from the U-Dub Huskies (behind Rome Odunze), but they’re going to have to do something extra out of Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson in the backfield.

It’s a good thing New England has the kind of defense that can keep them in ballgames. When you have an outstanding year defending the run (3.3 ypc) and the pass (5.8 ypa), you deserve combat pay with the awful field position. The special teams’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) was 28th out of 32 teams in 2023.

What they’ll get out of Brissett is standard seat-warmer stuff, but it won’t in any way be dynamic.

2024-25 New England Patriots Win Total

• Over 4.5 (-160)
• Under 4.5 (+130)

Despite being one of the worst teams in the league, the Patriots have the 8^th toughest schedule (.512). They’re tied with the Jaguars and Raiders.

When looking at their 2024-25 slate, I am having a hard time finding where this team will get five wins. A Week 13 Bye is great in theory, but for the Patriots, it will only prolong their misery. The easiest games on the schedule are against the Seahawks, Titans, Bears, Colts, Cardinals and Chargers. There’s no way that New England goes 5-1 against those teams.

The only reason I dubbed those games as “easy,” is because the rest of the slate is against the Bengals, 49ers, Bills twice, Dolphins twice, Jets twice, Texans, Jaguars in London, and Rams. I see the Patriots losing all of those games. I believe they will go 0-6 in the AFC East division and finish this year as the worst team in the league.

Bet: Under 4.5 wins (+130)

2024-25 New England Patriots Record After 5 Games

• 1 Win (+150)
• 2 Wins (+200)
• 0 Wins (+350)
• 3 Wins (+450)
• 4 Wins (+1600)
• 5 Wins (+10000)

A big reason why I think the Patriots won’t win more than four games this year is due to their opening stretch of games. This team could start off 0-8 on the year. In regards to the first five matchups, the Patriots play against the Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers and Dolphins. They play the Seahawks and Jets within four days of each other as the New York game is a Week 3 TNF contest.

Unless Seattle starts off the season playing awful, I don’t see the Patriots picking up a victory over the first eight games. Their first possible chance is at Tennessee in Week 9. For this bet, I’m going with zero wins.

Bet: 0 Wins (+350)

Will The New England Patriots Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+950)
• No (-2000)

As you can see from the odds, they are the biggest longshot to make the postseason. The next closest teams are the Broncos (-1100) and the NFC South Panthers (-900). Even if the Patriots somehow exceed my expectations of a four-win season, there’s no possible way that they’re winning 10 or more games to make the postseason. Although there’s not value with this prop bet, it’s clearly a “No”!

Bet: No (-2000)

AFC East Division Odds

• Buffalo Bills +160
• Miami Dolphins +180
• New York Jets +220
• New England Patriots +2200

Since the 2002 realignment, to our current eight-division league, the Patriots have won 16 AFC East crowns. The Bills have won four, with the Jets and Dolphins both winning one apiece.

New England’s AFC East stranglehold came to an end in 2020, and they’re clearly a few years away from contending in the division. The Miami Dolphins last won the division in 2008, and we’re very close to winning it last year but lost a tie breaker to the Bills.

The Jets won the 2002 AFC East title and have not really come close to winning it since then. As mentioned earlier in the article, the Bills have won four straight divisional crowns and are slightly favored to win the AFC East this year as well.

If you want to play things smart, take the Bills to win the AFC East again. Until someone dethrones the champ, you stick with them. However, if you want the best betting value then take the Jets as they are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. In fact, New York should have the best defense in the AFC East.  

Bet: Buffalo Bills +160

AFC East Exact Order Of The Division

I do believe the Bills can pull out another AFC East divisional title. The big debate comes down to which team will finish second. I think the Dolphins will have the division’s best offense and the Jets will have the division’s best defense.

With that said, I like the Jets schedule better than Miami. I think New York has some easier matchups that can really pad the stats. It’s also why I feel they could contend for the AFC East crown with a healthy Rodgers at quarterback. Obviously, the Patriots will finish last.

Bet: Bills 1st (+160), Jets 2nd (+200), Dolphins 3rd (+200), Patriots 4th (-700)

AFC East Division Top 2 Finishing Position

• Buffalo Bills & Miami Dolphins (+130)
• Buffalo Bills & New York Jets (+190)
• Miami Dolphins a& New York Jets (+225)
• Buffalo & New England Patriots (+2000)
• Miami Dolphins & New England Patriots (+2200)
• New York Jets & New England Patriots (+2500)

As you can see from the two previous AFC East prop bets, I think the Bills and Jets have the best chances at winning the division. Heading into the season, I like Buffalo to come away with the divisional crown for the 5^th straight year. I also like the Jets to finish second.

Yet, I do believe there’s a small chance that order can be reversed. Either way, I love the betting option for Jets and Bills to finish as the Top 2 teams in the AFC East.

Bet: Buffalo Bills & New York Jets (+190)