2024-25 NFL AFC South Odds and Predictions

The AFC South is a division with one clear-cut favorite in the Houston Texans, and three teams fighting for wins and respect. The Texans came on strong last season and are expected to have a big year with the addition of key free agents and the continued evolution of their franchise quarterback CJ Stroud. 

Not only do the NFL odds indicate that the Texans will run away with the division, but they’re also listed as a true contender to make the AFC Championship game this year.

Oddsmakers and pundits aren’t as high on the other NFL teams in the South. Both the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to be middling teams in the AFC. Unfortunately, the Tennessee Titans are considered one of the biggest longshots to win Super Bowl 59. 

Let’s examine the latest AFC South odds and prop bets, courtesy of the top online betting sites, and make our 2024-25 AFC South Division predictions. 

AFC South Division

2024 Houston Texans Season Preview

Do you recall the forecasts prior to last season? The Houston Texans were not expected to make any noise, having gone through three consecutive seasons of fewer than four wins. CJ Stroud was a rookie quarterback, and as you know, rookie quarterbacks need time to develop. There was a first-year head coach in DeMeco Ryans. There were holes everywhere. 

Sometimes teams are able to catch lightning in a bottle and that’s exactly what happened last year in Houston. Stroud exceeded all expectations in his first NFL season and threw over 4000 yards and tossed only five interceptions in 499 attempts. 

The running game was anemic last season, but the Texans addressed that by bringing in Joe Mixon from the AFC North’s Cincinnati Bengals. And, to show how committed they are to continuing this trajectory, Houston traded for Stefon Diggs from the AFC East’s Buffalo Bills. 

They already had Nico Collins, who had a shade under 1300 yards, Tank Dell (709 yards in 2023) and Noah Brown (17.2 yards / catch). And Dalton Schultz is no slouch as a tight end. This may be the best receiver group in the AFC.

Defensively, not only did they benefit last season from the arrival of Will Anderson, who was drafted right after Stroud and went on to become the Defensive Player of the Year, but they added significant pieces. Danielle Hunter became one of the league’s premier pass rushers in Minnesota, and he has come south. Houston also made a deal for eleven-year veteran Denico Autry, who was with the Tennessee Titans. Quarterbacks have a reason to be very apprehensive with those guys across the line.

If there is a potential vulnerability, it’s in the secondary. No, not on Derek Stingley Jr.’s side; that guy is going to be an All-Pro one day. But you don’t want to rely on Jeff Odukah opposite him. That’s why Ryans is hopeful that second-round draft pick Kamari Lassiter from Georgia can come in and make an immediate impact. 

2024-25 Houston Texans Win Total 

• Over 9.5 (-150)
• Under 9.5 (+120)

For a team that won 10 games last year, and added some serious talent on both sides of the ball, it’s rather surprising that the Over/Under is set at 9.5 wins. Yes, the Texans have the 4^th toughest schedule (.526), but they’re also one of the best teams in the AFC. tttt

A Week 14 Bye is perfect to close out the season strong and make a final push for the Playoffs. They do have tough games in December against Miami, Chiefs, Ravens and Titans. I do see them going 2-2 to close out the year. 

I don’t think the Texans will go 6-0 in the AFC South, but 5-1 isn’t out of the question. This team is significantly better than the rest of their divisional foes. I also believe Houston can get off to a fast start going 4-0 before a Week 5 home game against Buffalo. 

After that, the schedule gets tough with games against the Packers, Jets, Lions and the NFC East Cowboys. But, if this team is as good as it appears on paper, then they should be able to navigate that stretch with a winning record. I love the pieces that Houston has on offense and it should be one of the best in the AFC. Take the Over as the Texans should surpass their 10-7 record from last year. 

Bet: Over 9.5 wins (-150)

2024-25 Houston Texans Record After 5 Games

• 3 Wins (+185)
• 2 Wins (+250)
• 4 Wins (+250)
• 1 Win (+650)
• 5 Wins (+800)
• 0 Wins (+2500)

As you just saw in the prop bet above, I like for the Texans to start 4-0 with victories over the Colts, Bears, Vikings and Jaguars. Their first real test will be against the Bills in Week 5, which is being dubbed “the Stefon Diggs” game. We’ll definitely get a better idea of who really won the trade as these two teams go head-to-head on the gridiron. 

With that said, the Texans should go at least 4-1 to start off the season. If you want to get more aggressive and take a flier on 5 Wins, you could see a juicy +800 payout. 

Bet: 4 Wins (+250)

Will The Houston Texans Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (-190)
• No (+155)

There’s no doubt in my mind that the Texans make the Playoffs. This team will win at least 10 games on the season, which is good enough for a Wild Card spot. However, with how much better Houston is than the rest of the teams in the division, the AFC North really is theirs to lose. 

Bet: Yes (-190)

2024 Jacksonville Jaguars Season Preview

The Jacksonville Jaguars have some ground to make up on the Texans. And just recently they inked quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract (all guaranteed) which ties him with Joe Burrow for the richest deal in NFL history. Is Lawrence worth that? Well, he threw for over 4000 yards, but his TD-INT ratio (21 to 14) was not awe-inspiring. It’s not unreasonable to say that we are still waiting for him to truly fulfill his potential. 

In this division, you’d have to say that he’s behind CJ Stroud. But when you look at all the QB’s in the AFC South, Lawrence is the only one with more than a year of NFL experience. 

His best receiver, Calvin Ridley, took his talents to Tennessee, so the Jags had to search for someone who could stretch things out. They may have found a guy in Gabriel Davis, who averaged almost 17 yards per receptions in Buffalo. And they drafted Brian Thomas Jr., who was catching passes from Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels at LSU. 

Along with holdovers like Christian Kirk, who would have easily gone over 1000 yards if he didn’t get hurt, and tight end Evan Engram, who caught 114 passes, the Jags have a good enough receiver corps that Lawrence has no excuses.

What really needs some work is the defense. The Jags gave up almost 240 passing yards per game, which ranked them 26th in the league. Pass rushers to complement Josh Allen were needed, and maybe that’s an area where former #1 draft pick Trevon Walker and/or free agent signee Arik Armstead can come in handy. 

The Jags also brought in cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Darnell Savage, along with third-round pick Jarrian Jones (Florida State), which should make the secondary more dependable.

2024-25 Jacksonville Jaguars Win Total 

• Over 8.5 (-115)
• Under 8.5 (-105)

The Jaguars come into the season with the 8^th toughest schedule (.512). They finished last year with a 9-8 record and 4-2 in the division. I’m not sure this team will be able to surpass those numbers this year. 

Their easiest stretch is the final three weeks of the season when they play the Raiders, Titans and Colts. However, they play the Texans, Titans and Jets just prior. A Week 12 Bye will certainly help prepare this team for the final stretch of games. However, can it really help them match Houston’s level of play?

Heading into their Bye, the Jags play four straight games against the NFC including three against the NFC North.  They also start off the year against the Dolphins, Browns, Bills and Texans, which will definitely test how good this defense really is. 

I’m down on the Jags this year. As much as I liked Lawrence in college, I just don’t see him being able to match the success that Stroud will have in Houston. Additionally, the defense’s inconsistencies will cost them a few wins this year. 

Jacksonville can easily finish 9-8 this year. But I’m leaning towards 8-9 as their ceiling. A tough schedule, non-elite quarterback play, and an inconsistent defense are the ingredients for a team with a losing record. 

Bet: Under 8.5 wins (-105)

2024-25 Jacksonville Jaguars Record After 5 Games

• 2 Wins (+225)
• 3 Wins (+225)
• 1 Win (+400)
• 4 Wins (+400)
• 5 Wins (+800)
• 0 Wins (+1200)

As mentioned above, the Jags have a tough opening slate to their 2024-25 season. At Miami, Buffalo and Houston is three losses right there. Two home games against Cleveland and Indianapolis aren’t easy wins by any means. In fact, Jacksonville could easily lose both of those contests. 

So, it comes down to what we feel comfortable putting our money on. For me, that would be 1 Win. I see the Jags squeaking out a divisional victory over the Colts, but that Browns defense is going to give Lawrence problems and stuff Etienne to minimal gains on the ground. 

Bet: 1 Win (+400)

Will The Jacksonville Jaguars Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+120)
• No (-150)

It’s rather surprising to me that the Jags missing the Playoffs is only -150, considering their deficiencies. With that said, it’s good for us because we get to squeeze a little more value out of this NFL prop bet. I don’t see a scenario where the Jaguars win the AFC North or beat out the Bengals, Dolphins, Bills or Jets for the three AFC Wild Card spots. 

Bet: No (-150)

2024 Indianapolis Colts Season Preview

Are we back to “square one” with Anthony Richardson? Well, not exactly. The rookie, who got hurt early, still got to sit, watch and learn, which is what he might have done anyway had the Indianapolis Colts used a “seat-warmer” in his place. That’s what wound up happening anyway with Gardner Minshew, who played well enough to get invited to the Pro Bowl games. 

Richardson was considered a “project” to begin with, and now that project will have to develop; if the second-year man from Florida has a mishap, the Colts and head coach Shane Steichen may have to turn to Joe Flacco, who came to the rescue for Cleveland last season. 

Some people might be wondering whether Jonathan Taylor can handle the entire load in the backfield. You may recall that he more or less shared the carries with Zach Moss last season, and wasn’t even the team’s leading rusher. But as recently as 2021, he was an All-Pro with 1811 yards and 18 touchdowns to lead the league in both categories. 

So, it’s pivotal that Richardson gain some rapport with #1 receiver Michael Pittman, who everybody seems to like (109 catches, 1152 yards), as well as second-round draft pick Adonai Mitchell, who played at Georgia before transferring to Texas. 

The left side of this offensive line is very solid, with guard Quenton Nelson and tackle Bernhard Raimann among the league’s best at their positions. Center Ryan Kelly has been to four Pro Bowls. 

This defense ranked fifth in the league with 51 sacks but still allowed more than 24 points a game, which probably prevented them from going to the Playoffs. Maybe, they’ll get even more pressure with Laiatu Latu, who was drafted out of UCLA in the first round. 

The secondary includes one standout, corner Kenny Moore, but the Colts look forward to having second-year man Juju Brents available for a full season after injuries disrupted his rookie campaign.

2024-25 Indianapolis Colts Win Total 

• Over 8.5 (-105)
• Under 8.5 (-115)

Like the Jags, the Colts have an O/U of 8.5 wins. However, unlike the Jags, the Colts are tied for the 21^st toughest schedule (.491). Will this easier schedule help the team surpass its 9-8 record from last year? And, can they go at least 3-3 in the division this year?

To be honest, I like Indy’s chances at the Over more than I do the Jaguars. With that said, to bet on the Over, you must believe that Richardson is going to be a solid quarterback and help the team win games. For some, that’s a hard thing to believe in. 

Last year, we saw glimpses of Richardson before getting hurt. He certainly has the athletic abilities to make plays, but can he win games from the pocket?

If the Colts go 3-3 in the AFC South again, that means they have to pick up 6 wins in the other 11 games. Those contests are against the Packers, Bears, Steelers, Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Vikings, Lions, Patriots, Broncos and Giants. 

Looking over that slate, I see four wins at best. Like the Jags, the Colts will be lucky to get to the 9-8 mark again. Now, this could all change if Richardson plays like Stroud did last year. However, I need to see it to believe it and to put money on it. Take the Under. 

Bet: Under 8.5 wins (-115)

2024-25 Indianapolis Colts Record After 5 Games

• 2 Wins (+185)
• 3 Wins (+240)
• 1 Win (+280)
• 4 Wins (+500)
• 0 Wins (+950)
• 5 Wins (+2500)

The Colts have a tough opening stretch with games against Houston, Green Bay, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. At best, this is a 3-2 stretch. With that said, I think it will take some time for Indy to play to their full potential. I expect this team to win more games at the end of the year than at the beginning. I’m going with 2 wins for this AFC South prop bet. 

Bet: 2 Wins (+185)

Will The Indianapolis Colts Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+140) 
• No (-170)

Just like with the Jags, this team will need at least 10 wins to have a chance at the Wild Card spot and then they would have to beat out the Bengals, Jets, Dolphins and/or Bills to get into the postseason. I don’t see either happening especially since they will lose to those three AFC East teams during the regular season. 

Bet: No (-170)

2024 Tennessee Titans Season Preview

The Tennessee Titans were a very active team during the off-season, making changes to player personnel and the coaching staff. 

The question some may be asking at season’s end is, “did they do enough to address what they really needed?” 

The man who will be leading this club into the immediate future is new head coach Brian Callahan, who spent the last four years as offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals. He replaces Mike Vrabel, who fashioned the attack around Derrick Henry. 

Now, Henry is gone too, and the new regime is taking the offense in another direction. They are building around quarterback Will Levis, who was taken in the second round of last year’s draft. He threw four TD passes in his first NFL start. Levis has the big arm, lots of smarts, and brass balls. But he also sustained 28 of the 64 sacks this offensive line surrendered last year. 

If you can’t protect your QB, you’re not going anywhere in this day and age. Pro Football Focus, the respected analytics site, ranked Tennessee’s offensive line as the league’s worst in 2023. So, it’s the biggest challenge. And fortunately, Brian Callahan has the perfect guy on hand to address the situation — his father. 

The O-line will be Bill Callahan’s project. This is a man who has served as offensive line coach for six different teams, not to mention a head coach with Washington and the then-Oakland Raiders, with whom he went to Super Bowl 37. 

The statement was made with the signing of Denver center Lloyd Cushenberry and Washington guard Saahdiq Charles, both of whom should be able to claim starting spots.  And JC Latham, a big, versatile guy from Alabama, was taken with the seventh pick in the draft. 

Levis won’t be without people to get the ball to. DeAndre Hopkins (75 catches, 1057 yards) is already on board, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd were signed as free agents. Callahan (both of them) thinks that Tyjae Spears (4.5 ypc, 453 yards last year) can help fill the void left by Henry, and Tony Pollard, an explosive player who displaced Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas, can make big plays in a few different ways. 

On an overall basis, the defense was middle-of-the-road statistically, except in the area of interceptions. They had only six. That was dead last in the league. 

Toward that end, new corners arrive in Chidobe Awuzie (from Cincinnati) and L’Jarius Sneed from (Kansas City) will start right away, as this team cannot survive another year where Tre Avery plays a busy role in the secondary. 

2024-25 Tennessee Titans Win Total 

• Over 6.5 (+110)
• Under 6.5 (-140)

Just like with the Colts, the Titans have the 21^st toughest schedule this year (.491). They also have a second-year quarterback looking to elevate his play and lift his team into the postseason. Last year, the Titans finished 6-11 and went 1-5 in the AFC South. Can they surpass both marks this year?

Let me start off by saying that I am a Levis believer. I was a fan of his at Penn State before he transferred to Kentucky. And, I think everyone is sleeping on these Titans this year, especially the oddsmakers that think this team will be as bad as the NFC South’s Carolina Panthers. 

I expect the Titans to go 3-3 in the AFC South this year, which means they need four more victories to get the Over on this prop bet. 

Looking at the schedule, I see potential wins against the Patriots, Vikings, Commanders, and Chargers. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they rolled into Chicago on the opening weekend of the season and spoiled Caleb Williams’ NFC North debut. 

With that said, I think the Titans could finish 8-9 or 9-8 on the season just as easily as the Jaguars and Colts. I’m taking the Over and those plus-money odds. 

Bet: Over 6.5 wins (+110)

2024-25 Tennessee Titans Record After 5 Games

• 1 Win (+155)
• 2 Wins (+170)
• 3 Wins (+400)
• 0 Wins (+500)
• 4 Wins (+1600)
• 5 Wins (+6600)

A Week 5 Bye is not a friend to most teams but Tennessee has a tough opening month. So, a well-timed week off could help this team refocus and pick up some wins. The Titans play the Bears, Jets, Packers, and Dolphins before their Bye Week. They then play the Colts after the Bye. 

Best case scenario is 2-3 if they can beat the Bears, but it most likely will be a 1-4 stretch to start the season. And, that’s ok considering the caliber of teams they’re playing. 

Bet: 1 Win (+155)

Will The Tennessee Titans Make The 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+400)
• No (-600)

I think this team is one season away from the Playoffs. I like their immediate future more than the Colts and Jaguars. The offense is loaded with weapons for Levis and he isn’t far off from Lawrence’s level. I think he outplays Richardson this year as well. Snead at corner is a huge get for the Titans and it will help this defense out tremendously. 

The Titans are my darkhorse team in the AFC. I’m not willing to say they make the Playoffs, but they’re definitely the one team that can greatly exceed their projected win total. 

Bet: No (-600)

AFC South Division Odds

• Houston Texans +110
• Jacksonville Jaguars +250
• Indianapolis Colts +320
• Tennessee Titans +900

Although the South isn’t as lopsided as the AFC West or the NFC West, this division is clearly Houston’s to lose. The Jaguars have the second-best odds to win the South, but I rather take a flier on the Titans to win their 5^th divisional crown than Jacksonville picking up their third. 

I think the Titans are closer to the Jags and Colts than the oddsmakers do. With that said, I have no doubt that the Texans will claim their 8^th division title by winning the South this year.

Bet: Houston Texans +110

AFC South Exact Order Of The Division

The Texans will finish first, but the race for second will be a lot closer than most think. I’m not a believer in the Jaguars and I think they will fall below these preseason projections. Give me the Colts for second place, the Jags third and the Titans to finish last due to a tiebreaker. I think the Jags, Colts, and Titans will all finish within a game or two of each other. Houston should go 12-5 with the other three teams finishing in the range of 9-8 to 7-10. 

Bet: Texans 1st (+110), Colts 2nd (+240), Jaguars (+200), Titans 4th (-170)

AFC South Division Top 2 Finishing Position

• Houston Texans & Jacksonville Jaguars (+150)
• Houston Texans & Indianapolis Colts (+200)
• Houston Texans & Tennessee Titans (+500)
• Jacksonville Jaguars & Indianapolis Colts (+500)
• Jacksonville Jaguars & Tennessee Titans (+1200)
• Indianapolis Colts & Tennessee Titans (+1600)

I’m rooting for the Titans to finish in the top two, but I’m not willing to bet on that at this moment. I think the Colts could edge out the Jaguars for the second spot in the AFC South as their schedule is easier. 

Additionally, the Jags’ defense might be the worst in this division, which could hurt them when it comes to tiebreakers at the end of the season. Houston is the frontrunner for the South and they should lead it wire-to-wire. 

Bet: Houston Texans & Indianapolis Colts (+200)