Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga Odds and Predictions

On Saturday, September 14, Canelo Alvarez will defend his WBA, WBC and WBO super middleweight titles against Edgar Berlanga live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This weekend marks the eight time that Alvarez has defended at least one of his super middleweight belts.

Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Jaime Munguia in May. Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) is making his PPV debut along with his first crack at a world title.

The main card is set to begin at 8pm ET on Prime Video PPV. In addition to the main event, Ersilandy Lara (30-3-3, 18 KOs) will defend his WBA middleweight title against Danny Garcia. Other notable fighters on the card include Caleb Plant and Stephen Fulton.

Let’s take a look at the latest boxing odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Alvarez vs. Berlanga predictions.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga Preview

Check out the tale of the tape and latest odds for Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga:

Canelo Alvarez Recent Fights

Since losing via unanimous decision to Dmitrii Bivol, after going up to a heavier weight class, Alvarez has won four fights in a row. All four of those bouts have come in the super middleweight division.

Immediately following the Bivol loss, Alvarez jumped back into the ring against Gennadiy Golovkin for their trilogy fight. Now, some fans and critics would say that the first two fights were split. However, the judges gave both wins to Alavarez. Personally, I believe that GGG was robbed of at least the first fight, if not both of them.

In their trilogy bout, Alvarez won via unanimous decision and looked like the clear-cut winner. Of course, he made GGG come up in weight to fight him, instead of going back down to middleweight where the first two bouts took place.

Following his win over GGG, Alvarez cruised to an easy decision victory over John Ryder in May 2023. The judges scored the fight 120-107, 118-109, 118-109. It was a complete one-sided contest, as many predicted before the bout.

Four months later, Alvarez went and did the same thing to Jermell Charlo. Who, at the very least, was a step up from Ryder. Canelo won via decision with the following scores: 118-109, 118-109, 119-108.

In his most recent bout, Alvarez defeated Jamie Munguia via decision in May of this year. Although it wasn’t as lopsided as his previous two fights, Canelo still won convincingly with the following scores: 117-110, 116-111, 115-112.

Canelo Alvarez Odds

Canelo opened as a -1450 favorite for this weekend’s bout. His odds have moved to a range of -1500 to -1800. If you can get them on the lower end of the range, then that would be the ideal choice for moneyline wagers.

This is the biggest line for Alvarez since his fight against Ryder in May 2023. Canelo finished with odds as high as -2500 for that bout. This weekend’s line is Alvarez’s second biggest moneyline since he fought Avni Yildirim in February 2021. Canelo was a -5000 favorite for that bout. He won that fight in the third round.

Edgar Berlanga Recent Fights

Edgar Berlanga might be undefeated, but he’s taking a massive step up in competition. In fact, this is like five steps up in competition. Just two fights ago, Berlanga was fighting for the WBO NABO super middleweight belt. In fact, four of his previous five fights were for that title. Once again, proving how inferior his competition was compared to Canelo.

Berlanga started off his career with 16 consecutive KOs. However, he has five decision wins in his last six bouts. In fact, his 6^th round KO victory over Padraig McCrory in February 2024, snapped a five-fight streak of winning via decision.

Despite the lack of high-quality opponents, Berlanga does have the height and reach advantages over Canelo. Where Alvarez had to move up to this weight class, Berlanga is a natural for this division.

As for this weekend’s world title fight, Berlanga’s trainer Marc Farrait made the following comments about Berlanga’s preparation for Canelo:

“He’s a great fighter. He’s a legend. You can prepare for the way he fought Charlo, the way he fought Munguia, and then he’ll give you something totally different. You just gotta be ready for any surprises. You just prepare for a little bit of a mixture of everything. GGG [Gennady Golovkin, whom Canelo fought in 2017, 2018 and 2022]. See what he did with Floyd [Mayweather, whom Canelo fought in 2013]. Everything together, man. You got to look at his body of work, so that’s what we’ve been doing.”

Edgar Berlanga Odds

Berlanga opened as a +800 underdog and currently sits at a range of +700 to +1000 depending on the sportsbook. According to Pro Boxing Odds, this is the first time that Berlanga has been listed as an underdog.

The smallest his odds have been, came in Berlanga’s most recent bout against Roamer Alexis Angulo in March 2022. He closed as a -250 to -600 betting favorite. 

Alvarez vs. Berlanga Predictions

The great Roy Jones Jr. summed up this bout perfectly:

“Can this guy do that? Can Berlanga take the onslaught just as good or better? That’s going to be the question because if he can take the onslaught and return it, then we’ve got ourselves a great fight. If he can’t take the onslaught, then we’ve got a fight that is going to be good for three rounds, and then it’s going to be over.”

To answer Jones’ question, no I do not think that Berlanga can take Canelo’s onslaught. To me, the only question is whether or not Berlanga can last the full 12 rounds.

Berlanga has plenty of potential. But the 27-year-old has never faced anyone near the level of Alvarez. We have seen the Puerto Rican in trouble before. We’ve never really seen Alvarez in trouble. Sure, he’s been out-boxed by GGG in the past. And, Bivol’s power created problems, which ultimately cost Canelo the win.

But Berlanga is not GGG or Bivol. In fact, we really don’t know how good he is until he fights Alvarez. The lack of top-notch opponents hinders an accurate assessment of who we can compare him to. I highly doubt he fares as well as Mungia did four months ago. I think we see more of an outcome like Ryder.

Canelo is going to beat up Berlanga on the inside and either finish him off in the latter rounds or cruise to a unanimous decision win.

Bet: Canelo Alvarez (-1800)

The Best Alvarez vs. Berlanga Prop Bets

The following Alvarez vs. Berlanga prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

Over/Under 10.5 rounds

• Over 8.5 (-115)
• Under 8.5 (-115)

This is really a tough prop bet to wager on. We’re basically betting on whether or not Berlanga can survive until at least the 9^th round or later. Berlanga is bigger and stronger than Alvarez. But he has not faced someone like Canelo before. Alvarez is not only a strong puncher, but he can also box.

I’ll give the kid some credit and take the Over for this prop bet. But it won’t be by much.

Bet: Over 8.5 rounds (-115)

Will Fight go the distance?

• Yes (+240)
• No (-335)

It will be a moral victory and a shock if Berlanga can go the full 12 rounds against one of the best in the sport. He just doesn’t have the experience against high-level fighters. Although I’m giving the kid some credit by taking the Over 8.5 rounds, there’s no way he makes it to the scorecards.

Bet: No (-335)

Method of Victory

• Berlanga via TKO/KO/DQ (+2400)
• Berlanga via decision (+1700)
• Alvarez via TKO/KO/DQ (-300)
• Alvarez via decision (+260)
• Draw (+2500)

As I laid out above, Canelo is going to win this fight. Oddsmakers believe it will be via TKO/KO, and I agree. It’s disappointing that Alvarez is forced to fight a mandatory challenger with such a massive lack of experience. Canelo should be fighting opponents much higher up the food chain. Just another example of how foolish the sanctioning bodies are.

Bet: Alvarez via TKO/KO/DQ (-300)

Betting on Rounds

• Either Winner in Rounds 1-6 (+220)
• Either Winner in Rounds 7-12 (+105)
• Fight To Go The Distance (+240)

We’ve ruled out this fight going the distance. And, we’re taking the Over. It could be a good idea to hedge your O/U bet with taking Rounds 1-6 for this prop. However, I’m going with the Rounds 7-12 as I think Alvarez finishes off Berlanga before the championship rounds.

Bet: Either Winner in Rounds 7-12 (+105)

Alvarez vs. Berlanga Full Card

Super Middleweight Title fight: (c)Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga (12 rounds). For Alvarez’s super middleweight titles.

WBA Middleweight Title fight: (c)Ersilandy Lara vs. Danny Garcia (12 rounds). For Lara’s WBA middleweight title

Super Middleweight Fight: Caleb Plant vs. Trevor McCumby (12 rounds). For the vacant WBA interim super middleweight title

Featherweight Fight: Stephen Fulton vs. Carlos Castro (10 rounds)

Junior Welterweight Fight: Rolando “Rolly” Romero vs. Manuel Jaimes (10 rounds)