Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Picks and Predictions September 12th 2024

Thursday’s matchup between the Athletics and Astros is set to get started at 2:10 PM ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston. The Astros are 77-68 and have lost three straight, but they are heavy favorites on the money line today at -245. Oakland is +204 on the money line, and they have won two in a row. Mitch Spence is starting for the Athletics, and he is facing off against Framber Valdez for the Astros.

The over/under line for this game is currently at 8 runs, and it is being televised on ATTSN and ATTSN-SW. In the AL West, the Astros are in first place, while the Athletics are in fourth.

Oakland vs. Houston Key Information

• Teams: Athletics at Astros
• Where: Minute Maid Park Houston
• Date: Thursday, September 12th
• Betting Odds HOU -245 | OAK +204 O/U 8

The Athletics Can Win If…

Mitch Spence gets the start for the Athletics today as he faces the Astros on the road. He has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.42. So far, Spence has turned in three quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t give up a homer. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. Spence has not taken the loss in any of his last three outings. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.66 strikeouts and 2.83 walks.

As a team, the Athletics are batting just .234 this season, which is 18th in the league. However, they do have the 5th most home runs in the league and are averaging 4.1 runs per game. This is 26th in the MLB and is also their ranking for runs scored on the road and at home. Oakland is also near the bottom of the league in terms of strikeouts per game.

Brent Rooker has been a bright spot for the Athletics this season, as he is batting .299 with 35 homers and 101 RBIs. He is currently on a five-game hitting streak and has gone 2/5 in his last two games. Zack Gelof is also swinging a hot bat right now, going 7/21 in his last five games.

• The Athletics are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Athletics are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Oakland has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Athletics have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Athletics are 6-4
• Looking back across the Athletics last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Oakland has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Athletics have averaged 5.5 runs per game on offense

The Astros Can Win If…

Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros today and comes in with a record of 14-6 and an ERA of 2.98. So far, he has made 25 starts, one of which was a complete game. Valdez has turned in 15 quality starts and is averaging 8.75 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win, going seven innings vs. the Diamondbacks. Before that, he had given up at least one earned run in three straight outings. Valdez has been much better at home, coming in with a record of 8-2 and an ERA of 2.96.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ most consistent hitter this season, as he is batting .313 with a league-leading 32 home runs. Alvarez also has the 2nd most RBIs in the MLB this season, with 80. Jose Altuve has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 14/36 in his last nine games, with one home run and five RBIs.

As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are one of the top home run hitting teams in the league. Overall, they are 3rd in batting average and are one of the league’s toughest teams to strike out. Collectively, the Astros are 8th in slugging percentage and have the 7th best OPS in the league.

• The Astros are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 6.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Astros are 3-7
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Houston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

The Houston Astros are hoping to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the Oakland Athletics on Thursday, but their efforts may be complicated by the uncertainty surrounding Jose Altuve. The All-Star second baseman exited Wednesday’s 5-4 loss with an injury, leaving Houston fans anxious about when he might return to the lineup.

Altuve’s Injury Adds to Astros’ Challenges

Key Lineup Finally Intact—But Short-Lived?

For just the second time since early June, the Astros had their core offensive quartet of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker starting together for consecutive games. This brief moment of offensive continuity may be disrupted again, as Altuve left Wednesday’s game with right-side discomfort after fouling off a pitch in the fifth inning.

The injury occurred when Altuve fouled off a 2-1 pitch from Oakland starter Joey Estes. After consulting with the team trainer and manager Joe Espada, Altuve stayed in to finish his at-bat but struck out on a bunt attempt and immediately exited to the clubhouse.

Altuve’s status is officially day-to-day, with Espada providing a cautiously optimistic update:
“I’m not really concerned right now, which is good,” Espada said. “He got fooled on that pitch and kind of felt something… I’m not concerned that it’s an oblique. Right now, it’s just right side discomfort.”

Though it seems the injury isn’t severe, Altuve’s absence, even for a short time, could be costly as the Astros (77-68) fight for a playoff spot.

Framber Valdez Looks to Play Stopper

Valdez’s Dominance

The Astros will send their ace, Framber Valdez (14-6, 2.97 ERA), to the mound in hopes of avoiding a sweep. Valdez has been in dominant form, going 9-1 with a 2.15 ERA over his last 13 starts. His consistency has been a bright spot for the Astros, as they’ve won 12 of those 13 games.

In his most recent outing, Valdez was nearly untouchable, pitching seven scoreless innings and allowing just two hits in an 8-0 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has a history of success against the Athletics as well, owning a 6-4 record with a 2.73 ERA in 14 career appearances (12 starts) against Oakland. Earlier this season, Valdez blanked the A’s over seven innings in a 3-0 victory, giving up just two hits while striking out eight.

Why Houston Needs Valdez to Deliver

With Altuve potentially sidelined and Houston struggling to maintain consistency, Valdez’s role as a stabilizing force has become more crucial. His ability to limit damage and provide length in his starts is vital for a team dealing with both offensive and pitching setbacks.

Mitch Spence Takes the Mound for Oakland

Spence’s Struggles

Rookie right-hander Mitch Spence (7-9, 4.42 ERA) will start for the Athletics in the series finale. Spence has had an up-and-down season, going winless over his last seven starts (0-3, 4.29 ERA). However, he ranks among the top American League rookies in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts.

Spence’s most recent start came last Friday against the Milwaukee Brewers, where he allowed just one run over six strong innings in a 7-3 victory. That performance showed flashes of his potential, but his inconsistency throughout the year has been an issue. In his only appearance against the Astros this season, Spence allowed two runs in relief over 2/3 of an inning.

Spence’s Challenge Against Houston

Spence will be tasked with shutting down a Houston offense that, even without Altuve, can be dangerous. The Athletics have been playing inspired baseball lately, and another strong outing from Spence could help them complete the sweep.

Athletics Riding Momentum Into Series Finale

Oakland’s Late-Season Competitiveness

Though the Athletics (64-82) are far out of playoff contention, they’ve been playing competitive baseball down the stretch, posting a 13-12 record over their last 25 games. The A’s have found themselves in close games recently, with 10 of their last 16 contests being decided by one run—including both wins against the Astros in this series.

Oakland’s ability to play spoiler could continue in Thursday’s finale, as they look to finish the season on a high note.

Astros’ Playoff Push Faces Setbacks

Injuries Testing Houston’s Depth

Injuries have been a recurring theme for the Astros, complicating their playoff push. Kyle Tucker only recently returned after missing three months with a shin fracture, an injury that was initially downplayed. Similarly, Justin Verlander’s neck injury sidelined him for 59 games earlier this season, raising concerns about the team’s overall health.

With Altuve’s status now in doubt, the Astros face a difficult stretch as they try to avoid falling further in the standings. Despite these challenges, Houston remains optimistic, especially with Valdez taking the mound in Thursday’s game.

The Lean

There should be no shortage of offense in today’s Athletics and Astros matchup, and not only are we leaning towards the Athletics picking up the win, but we are also leaning towards taking the over. Looking at today’s starters, Framber Valdez is 4th worst in our projections in terms of strikeouts, while Mitch Spence is 9th among today’s starters.