Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions September 8th 2024

At 7:10 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Astros will face off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Minute Maid Park in Houston and has the Astros as the heavy favorites on the money line (-148). The Diamondbacks are +125, and their money line odds have been affected by a three-game losing streak.

Arizona will be looking to get back on track behind starter Ryne Nelson, while the Astros are starting Justin Verlander. Verlander is 77-65, while the Diamondbacks are 79-64 and are third in the NL West. Houston leads the AL West and is currently on a two-game winning streak. ESPN is carrying this game on TV.

Arizona vs. Houston Key Information

• Teams: Diamondbacks at Astros
• Where: Minute Maid Park Houston
• Date: Sunday, September 8th
• Betting Odds HOU -148 | ARI +125 O/U 8.5

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

Ryne Nelson is coming off a strong outing for the Diamondbacks, as he faced the Giants on September 3rd and picked up the win. In that start, he went 6 2/3 innings, giving up just two earned runs. Looking back at his last three outings, Nelson has given up two earned runs in each of them. He has made 24 starts this year and has a record of 10-6 with a 4.15 ERA. Nelson’s WHIP for the season is 1.26. This year, opponents are batting .267 off the right-hander. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.62 strikeouts and just 2.01 walks.

As a team, the Diamondbacks are averaging 5.4 runs per game this season, which is the best mark in the league. They are also the top home run hitting team in the league and have the second-best home batting average in the league. Overall, they are batting .261, which is the 2nd best mark in the MLB right now.

Ketel Marte has been a big run producer for the Diamondbacks this season, as his 81 RBIs are the 2nd best in the league. He also leads the team with 30 homers. Eugenio Suarez has also been a big power threat, with 25 homers this season. Over his last 10 games, Suarez is batting .343 with five homers. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has 17 homers this season and is batting .274.

• The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Diamondbacks are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Arizona has an over/under record of 8-2 in their last ten games.
• The Diamondbacks have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Diamondbacks are 7-3
• Looking back across the Diamondbacks last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Arizona has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Diamondbacks have averaged 5.7 runs per game on offense

The Astros Can Win If…

Justin Verlander will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Reds, as he gets the start for the Astros today. In that start, he took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings and giving up five earned runs. Looking back over his last three starts, Verlander has taken the loss in each outing. His overall record for the season is 3-5, and he has an ERA of 4.52. Opponents have hit .251 off Verlander this season. Out of his 13 appearances, he has turned in five quality starts. Per nine innings, Verlander is averaging 7.91 strikeouts and 2.89 walks.

Yordan Alvarez has been a force for the Astros this season, leading the team with a batting average of .313 and 80 RBIs, which is also the best mark on the team. He has also been hot of late, going 9/27 (.333) with four homers over his last seven games. Alex Bregman has also been a big power threat for Houston, as he is 2nd on the team with 21 homers.

As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are one of the league’s best hitting teams, with a team batting average of .261. They are also near the top of the league in slugging percentage and on-base percentage. Houston’s offense has been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game.

• The Astros are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 5-4-1 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Astros are 3-7
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Houston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

Altuve and Alvarez Power Astros Toward Sweep

The Houston Astros are on fire, heading into Sunday’s game with the Arizona Diamondbacks, aiming to complete a three-game sweep. The duo of Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez has been unstoppable, leading the Astros’ offense with back-to-back multi-hit performances. After an impressive 11-5 win on Saturday and an 8-0 shutout in the series opener, Houston is rolling.

Altuve and Alvarez combined for a 5-for-8 night in Friday’s shutout, driving in seven runs. On Saturday, they stayed hot, each racking up three hits, pushing the Astros’ home winning streak to six games. The Astros (77-65) are now looking to keep the momentum and sweep the Diamondbacks (79-64) in Sunday’s finale.

Bottom of the Lineup Boosting Astros’ Offense

While Altuve and Alvarez have been headlining, the unsung heroes have been the players at the bottom of the Astros’ lineup. In Saturday’s win, the combination of Victor Caratini, Jake Meyers, Ben Gamel, and Chas McCormick delivered a crucial contribution—adding five runs, three hits, two RBIs, and two walks. This production created plenty of opportunities for the top of the order.

Espada highlighted how this balance could be crucial heading into the final stretch of the season. “If we can get that production consistently, it’s exactly what we need,” he said.

Justin Verlander Set to Start Despite Struggles

Houston’s ace, Justin Verlander (3-5, 4.52 ERA), will take the mound for Sunday’s finale. Verlander is still finding his rhythm after returning from the injured list, struggling with a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts. His most recent outing against the Cincinnati Reds was rough, giving up five runs in just 4 2/3 innings in a 5-3 loss.

Despite his recent hiccups, Verlander has been dominant against the Diamondbacks in his career, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.77 ERA in seven starts. In his last game against Arizona, he pitched five scoreless innings, helping the Astros to a 1-0 win.

D-backs Turn to Ryne Nelson to Stop the Astros

The Diamondbacks will counter with Ryne Nelson (10-6, 4.15 ERA), who has been on a roll. Nelson hasn’t lost in his last 12 outings, posting a 5-0 record with a 2.76 ERA during that span. He struck out nine batters in his last start, a 6 2/3 inning performance against the San Francisco Giants, leading the D-backs to an 8-7 victory.

Nelson will be making his first career start against the Astros, although he did pitch a scoreless inning of relief against them last October.

D-backs Looking to Avoid Sweep

The Diamondbacks, who came into this series hot after winning three straight road series, have now lost three consecutive games. After Saturday’s 11-5 loss, manager Torey Lovullo offered words of encouragement to his team.

What to Watch For

As the Astros aim for a sweep, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez will look to keep leading the charge. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are counting on Ryne Nelson to stop Houston’s red-hot offense and avoid being swept.

With both teams battling for playoff positioning, Sunday’s series finale promises to be a thrilling contest, with high stakes for two teams looking to build momentum as the postseason approaches.

The Lean

Our lean for a money-line pick in this Astros vs. Diamondbacks matchup is to take the Diamondbacks to win. And with the way we are leaning on the over/under line, we would be looking at taking the over. This game is projected to have the 5th most combined runs in today’s league slate and the 5th most hits. Looking at today’s starters, we have Justin Verlander as our 11th best strikeout pitcher compared to Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks, who is 16th.