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At 2:10 PM ET, the Mariners and Astros will square off in an AL West matchup. This one is being played at Minute Maid Park in Houston and has the Astros favored on the money line (+113). The Mariners are 81-77 this season, while the Astros lead the AL West with a record of 86-72.
Wednesday’s forecast in Houston calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. The over/under line is currently at 7 runs, and the Mariners are starting George Kirby, while the Astros have Yusei Kikuchi on the mound.
Seattle vs. Houston Key Information
- Teams: Mariners at Astros
- Where: Minute Maid Park Houston
- Date: Wednesday, September 25th
- Betting Odds SEA -134 | HOU +113 O/U 7
The Mariners Can Win If…
Seattle is sending right-hander George Kirby to the mound today vs. the Astros. He has made 32 starts this season and has a record of 13-11 with a 3.60 ERA. Kirby’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.08. In his 32 appearances, he has turned in 19 quality starts and is averaging 8.42 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Kirby went six innings vs. the Rangers, giving up two earned runs on five hits. He got the win in that outing. Before that, he had won three straight starts.
Julio Rodríguez has been on a tear of late for the Mariners, hitting .425 over his last eight games with three homers and 11 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .275 with 19 homers, which is 4th on the team. Cal Raleigh is the team’s top power threat, as his 31 homers are 11th in the league and leads the Mariners. He also has 96 RBIs, which is 15th in the MLB.
Overall, the Mariners are averaging 4.1 runs per game, and they have been a little better on the road at 4.5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .224 and are the worst team in the league in terms of strikeouts. However, they do have the 4th best walk rate in the league.
- The Mariners are 6-4 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Mariners are 4-1 vs. the run line.
- Seattle has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
- The Mariners have an average of 6.0 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten road games, the Mariners are 7-3
- Looking back across the Mariners last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
- Seattle has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Mariners have averaged 6.8 runs per game on offense
The Astros Can Win If…
Yusei Kikuchi gets the start for the Astros today and is facing his former team, the Mariners. He has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 9-9 with an ERA of 4.19. Kikuchi’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.21. In his last outing, Kikuchi finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on five hits. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Kikuchi has done a good job of limiting walks this year, coming in with a mark of 2.28 per nine innings. His ERA at home is 4.48, compared to 5.38 on the road.
Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top power threat this season, as his 35 home runs lead the team and are also 8th in the league. For the season, he is batting .308, and his 86 RBIs are the most on the team. Alex Bregman has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/20 with three homers in his last five games. This has helped him move into the 2nd spot on the team’s home run leaderboard, with 26 this season.
As a team, the Astros are 3rd in batting average and 8th in home runs, while also being one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts. Overall, they are averaging 4.6 runs per game, but that number jumps to 4.9 when playing at home.
- The Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Astros are 2-3 vs. the run line.
- Houston has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
- The Astros have an average of 6.4 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten home games, the Astros are 5-5
- Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
- Houston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense
The Houston Astros can finally shift their focus to preparing for the postseason, but the Seattle Mariners still have everything to play for as they face off in the series finale on Wednesday in Houston.
Astros Clinch AL West Title
After clinching their fourth straight American League West title with a 4-3 victory on Tuesday, the Astros (86-72) have locked in the No. 3 seed and are set to host a best-of-three wild-card series starting on October 1. Meanwhile, the Mariners (81-77) are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive, trailing by 2 1/2 games for the final AL wild-card spot with only four games left in the regular season.
Houston’s division clincher was a testament to their resilience. The Astros once trailed the Mariners by 10 games in mid-June but surged back, going 53-32 after June 18 to reclaim the top spot.
“The start to the season wasn’t what we wanted, but we knew how good of a team we are,” said Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker. “It was just a matter of time until we started clicking and turned things around.”
Mariners in Must-Win Territory
For Seattle, the Tuesday loss was especially tough as they watched their AL West title hopes evaporate. Despite the setback, Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert emphasized the importance of staying focused on the task at hand. “You can’t feel sorry for yourself,” Gilbert said. “Right here, right now. What can we do? We’ve got four games left. We need to win them all.”
Seattle’s playoff chances rest on a strong finish, starting with Wednesday’s game and a crucial final regular-season series against the Oakland Athletics. The Mariners need to leapfrog two teams in the wild-card standings over the next few days.
“There’s a lot of different scenarios that can still take place here,” said Mariners manager Dan Wilson. “We keep fighting and see what happens.”
Seattle’s Final Push for the Playoffs
Seattle will turn to right-hander George Kirby (13-11, 3.60 ERA) on Wednesday. Kirby has been in good form this month, going 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in four starts. Over his last two outings, both against the Texas Rangers, Kirby allowed just two runs in 13 innings. He has also performed well against the Astros, boasting a 2-0 record with a 1.56 ERA in six career starts against them, including three this season in which he has given up only three runs across 18 innings.
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Pitching Matchup: Kirby vs. Kikuchi
Houston will counter with former Mariner Yusei Kikuchi (9-9, 4.19 ERA). Kikuchi has been solid of late, going 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA over his past four starts. In his last outing on Thursday, he struck out nine and held the Los Angeles Angels to one run over six innings. Kikuchi has also dominated the Mariners since leaving the team, holding a 1-0 record with a 0.52 ERA across three career starts against his former club.
High Stakes for Seattle
The stakes are clear for the Mariners: win, or see their playoff hopes fade.
The Lean
For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 8th highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Astros to come out on top. Astros starter Yusei Kikuchi is our 6th ranked starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts today, and he also has the 8th best earned runs allowed projection on today’s slate.
