Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions August 20th 2024

At 8:10 PM ET, the Red Sox and Astros will face off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at Minute Maid Park in Houston and has the Astros favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -125 compared to the Red Sox at +106. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

Boston will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they are 65-59 and 3rd in the AL East. The Astros are 1st in the AL West with a record of 68-56 and have won three straight. Ronel Blanco is starting for the Astros, while the Red Sox are going with Nick Pivetta.

Right-hander Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Astros on the road. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 5-8 to go along with an ERA of 4.49. Pivetta’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.13. In his 19 appearances, he has turned in seven quality starts. Pivetta’s last outing came against the Orioles, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had gone 6 2/3 innings in back-to-back outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 4th in the league in runs scored at 5 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s best home run-hitting teams and have the league’s top team batting average. As a team, they are also one of the league’s best at getting on base and have the 2nd best slugging percentage in the league.

Rafael Devers has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 27 home runs are 10th in the league. He also leads the Red Sox with 77 RBIs. Devers has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/21 in his last five games with two homers. Tyler O’Neill and Jarren Duran are also near the top of the Red Sox home run leaderboard.

Houston is sending Ronel Blanco to the mound today vs. the Red Sox, and he has made 23 starts this season. Blanco’s record for the year is 9-6, and his ERA is 2.89. So far, he has pitched one complete game shutout and has 12 quality starts. Blanco’s WHIP for the season is 1.01, and opponents are batting .177 off him this year. In his last outing, Blanco went six innings, giving up no earned runs, and finished with a no-decision. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts.

As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been a good home run hitting team this season, as their 147 homers is 12th in the league. Houston’s team batting average of .261 is the 3rd best mark in the MLB right now.

Yordan Alvarez has been a big power threat for the Astros this season, as his 25 homers is 12th best in the league, and he is also batting .310. Catcher Yainer Diaz has also been a big power threat, as he is batting .299 and has 14 homers. Diaz and Alvarez are both on three-game hitting streaks coming into the game. Jose Altuve is also swinging a hot bat right now, as he has gone 7/23 in his last six games.

As the Houston Astros continue their three-game series against the Boston Red Sox, they’re about to get a major boost to their rotation. Veteran right-hander Justin Verlander is slated to return to the mound on Wednesday, marking his first start in over two months. While Verlander’s return is great news for the Astros, they also received some mixed news regarding another key pitcher who’s been on the mend.

Luis Garcia Shut Down for the Season

Astros manager Joe Espada announced that right-hander Luis Garcia, who underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, won’t be returning to the mound this season. Despite Garcia’s progress and a recent rehab start, some elbow soreness has set back his comeback. Espada emphasized that the focus is on getting Garcia ready for the 2025 season, rather than rushing him back for a late-season push.

Astros’ Pitching Strategy with Verlander’s Return

With Verlander rejoining the rotation, the Astros will shift to a six-man rotation to manage their pitchers’ workload during the crucial stretch run. On Tuesday, they’ll turn to Ronel Blanco (9-6, 2.89 ERA), who has shown promise but remains winless in his last six starts. Blanco pitched six shutout innings in his previous outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, but despite his solid performances, he has just one win in his last nine starts.

Blanco will face the Red Sox for the second time in his career after allowing three runs (two earned) over four innings in a no-decision on August 9, which the Astros eventually won 8-4.

Red Sox Aim to Bounce Back with Pivetta

The Red Sox will counter with right-hander Nick Pivetta (5-8, 4.49 ERA), who is looking to rebound after a loss to the Baltimore Orioles last Thursday. Pivetta has struggled in recent outings, going 1-4 with a 5.17 ERA over his last nine starts. His last road win came in June against the Toronto Blue Jays, but he has a respectable 3.32 ERA in four career appearances against the Astros, including two strikeouts in a relief appearance on August 23.

Red Sox Seek Balance Amid Bullpen Woes

In Monday’s series opener, the Red Sox couldn’t hold onto two separate two-run leads, eventually falling 5-4 after closer Kenley Jansen surrendered a walk-off homer to Houston’s Yainer Diaz. Despite the loss, Red Sox manager Alex Cora remains optimistic about his starting rotation’s recent performances and stressed the importance of balancing the efforts between the starters and the bullpen.

Series Implications and Outlook

As the Astros gear up for the second game of the series, they do so knowing that reinforcements are on the way, but also with the understanding that they’ll need to finish the season without Garcia. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will be eager to even the series and stabilize their pitching staff as they continue to chase postseason hopes.

With Verlander’s return on the horizon and both teams needing strong performances from their starters, Tuesday’s matchup promises to be a pivotal contest in the series. Fans can expect a closely contested game as the Astros aim to maintain their momentum and the Red Sox look to bounce back.

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 4th highest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Red Sox to pick up the win. Boston’s offense is our 5th ranked home run-hitting team in today’s slate of games, and Nick Pivetta is 16th in our projections in starting pitcher strikeouts.