Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions August 21st 2024

Justin Verlander returns as Astros go for series win vs. Red Sox

From Minute Maid Park in Houston, we have an AL matchup between the Red Sox and Astros. First pitch for this one is set for 2:10 PM ET, and MLBN is carrying the TV rights for the game.

The Astros are the favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -150 compared to the Red Sox at +127. This game will be started by Cooper Criswell for the Red Sox and Justin Verlander for the Astros. In the AL East, the Red Sox are 3rd with a record of 66-59, while the Astros lead the AL West at 68-57.

Boston vs. Houston Key Information

• Teams: Red Sox at Astros
• Where: Minute Maid Park Houston
• Date: Wednesday, August 21st
• Betting Odds HOU -150 | BOS +127 O/U 8.5

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Right-hander Cooper Criswell gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Astros on the road. Criswell has made 13 starts this year and has a record of 5-4 with a 4.56 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .282 this year, and Criswell has a WHIP of 1.36. In his 19 appearances, he has turned in just one quality start. Criswell’s ERA on the road is 7.85, compared to 4.21 at home. His last outing came out of the bullpen, where he got the win, going 3 1/3 innings and giving up six hits, one earned run, and a homer. Before that, he had three straight outings where he didn’t give up an earned run.

As a team, the Red Sox are averaging 5 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Boston is also one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, coming in 5th in the league with 159 homers. Overall, they are batting .261 as a team, which is the 2nd best mark in the MLB.

Over his last six games, Jarren Duran has gone 9/27 with three home runs and six RBIs. For the season, he is batting .293 with 17 homers. Rafael Devers is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he is 10th in the league with 27 homers and has driven in 77 runs, which is 14th in the MLB. Devers is also on a five-game hitting streak.

• The Red Sox are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Red Sox are 6-4
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 5.6 runs per game on offense

The Astros Can Win If…

Right-hander Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Red Sox at home. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 3-2 with an ERA of 3.95. Verlander’s WHIP for the season is 1.21, and he is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. In that start vs. the Angels, he gave up three homers. Verlander has not taken the loss in any of his last three outings, finishing with a no-decision in each. So far, he has allowed 11 homers and is averaging 8.05 strikeouts per nine innings.

Over his last nine games, Jeremy Pena has been swinging a hot bat for the Astros, going 13/34 with three homers and five RBIs. Yainer Diaz has also been on a tear, going 12/39 with four homers and 10 RBIs over the same stretch. Diaz comes into the game leading the Astros with 71 RBIs, while Yordan Alvarez has a team-high 25 homers and is batting .308 for the season.

As a team, the Astros are 2nd in batting average and 8th in home runs. Overall, they are averaging 4.6 runs per game and have been even better at home, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. Houston is also one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts.

• The Astros are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Astros are 9-1
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Houston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 5.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For a money-line pick, our lean would be to take the Red Sox to come out on top. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over. This game is projected to have the 6th most combined runs and 5th most hits. Justin Verlander is our highest projected starter of the day in terms of strikeouts, but we still like the Red Sox’s offense in this one.

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As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Boston Red Sox in the decisive game of their three-game series, all eyes are on the return of veteran right-hander Justin Verlander. Verlander’s comeback couldn’t be more timely for the Astros, who are looking to bounce back from a narrow 6-5 loss on Tuesday night.

The Significance of Verlander’s Return

Justin Verlander, one of baseball’s most accomplished pitchers, will make his much-anticipated return to the mound on Wednesday afternoon. This will be his first start since June 9, after being sidelined by neck discomfort that landed him on the 15-day injured list. The Astros, who have been dominant with 11 wins in their last 13 games, will greatly benefit from Verlander’s experience and skill as they aim to secure the series win against Boston.

Houston manager Joe Espada expressed the importance of Verlander’s return, noting, “It’s big getting JV on the mound. It’s getting one of the best back in there. We know what he means. We know he’s part of this winning culture, and getting him back is a big boost for our team, especially down the stretch.”

Strategic Impact on the Astros’ Rotation

With Verlander back in the rotation, the Astros will temporarily shift to a six-man rotation. This strategy is designed to ease the workload on younger pitchers like Ronel Blanco, who struggled in Tuesday’s game, and rookie Spencer Arrighetti. Verlander’s presence adds stability and depth to the rotation, a crucial factor as the Astros push toward the postseason.

Although the Astros have not disclosed a specific pitch count for Verlander, Espada emphasized that the team will closely monitor his performance. “We’ll see how the outing goes and how efficient he is,” Espada said. “I don’t want to put a number because he can surprise us. But we’re going to keep a close eye on his workload for sure.”

Verlander’s Track Record Against the Red Sox

Verlander, a seasoned veteran, has a strong history against the Red Sox, with a 6-6 record and an impressive 2.74 ERA over 20 career starts. This experience will be invaluable as the Astros seek to clinch the series in front of their home crowd.

Boston’s Counter: Cooper Criswell on the Mound

On the other side, the Red Sox will send right-hander Cooper Criswell to the mound. Criswell, who will be making his first start since July 23, has had an inconsistent season. Over his last five relief appearances, Criswell has posted an 8.10 ERA, but he showed promise earlier in the season, with a 4-3 record and a 3.99 ERA during a stretch of 12 consecutive starts.

This will be Criswell’s first career appearance against the Astros, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup. The Red Sox will need him to deliver a strong performance if they hope to capture the series.

Red Sox’s Offensive and Bullpen Strengths

The Red Sox evened the series on Tuesday with a complete team effort, highlighted by standout performances from Jarren Duran and Triston Casas. Duran, who went 4-for-4, and Casas, who homered and drove in three runs, provided the offensive firepower Boston needed. Additionally, the Red Sox bullpen was lights out, allowing just one hit over four scoreless innings, a key factor in their 6-5 victory.

“We knew we were gonna have our hands full coming into the week, with this series (against Houston),” Casas said after the game. “We’re playing good baseball, and (Tuesday) was a full team effort.”

Astros’ Momentum Heading into the Series Finale

Despite Tuesday’s loss, the Astros remain one of the hottest teams in baseball, with 11 wins in their last 13 games, including four against the Red Sox. This momentum, combined with Verlander’s return, puts Houston in a strong position to take the series.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Game for Both Teams

Wednesday’s game is pivotal for both the Astros and the Red Sox. For Houston, Verlander’s return represents not only a boost to their rotation but also a symbol of their determination to secure their place in the postseason. For Boston, it’s an opportunity to build on Tuesday’s win and demonstrate their resilience against one of the league’s top teams.

As the series concludes, the outcome will likely hinge on Verlander’s ability to perform after a lengthy absence and Criswell’s capacity to rise to the occasion in a challenging environment. Baseball fans can expect a thrilling contest as both teams vie for the series victory.