Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions August 30th 2024

Friday’s matchup between the Royals and Astros is set to get started at 8:10 PM ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston. The Astros are currently on a two-game winning streak and are 1st in the AL West with a record of 72-62. The Royals are 2nd in the AL Central and are +133 on the money line for tonight’s game.

Friday’s forecast in Houston calls for thunderstorms, with temperatures in the mid-80s. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the Astros are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -157. Seth Lugo is starting for the Royals, and he will be facing off against Framber Valdez.

Kansas City vs. Houston Key Information

Seth Lugo will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Phillies, as he gets the start for the Royals today. In that start, which came on August 25th, he took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up five earned runs. Looking back at his last four outings, Lugo has given up at least four earned runs in three of them. The right-hander’s record for the season is 14-8, and his ERA is 3.19. Lugo has made 27 starts, and his WHIP for the season is 1.12.

Currently, the Royals are the 5th highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in team batting average and have the 6th best slugging percentage in the league. The Royals are also one of the best teams in the league at avoiding strikeouts, as they have the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league.

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Bobby Witt Jr. has been the Royals’ top hitter this season, batting .344 with a team-high 28 home runs and 95 RBIs. Salvador Perez is also having a strong season, hitting .279 with 25 homers and 94 RBIs. Perez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/20 in his last five games with two homers. Witt Jr. has also gone deep twice in this stretch but is just 5/19 in these games.

Left-hander Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Royals at home. He has made 23 starts this year and has a record of 13-6 with a 3.27 ERA. Valdez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Valdez has one complete game and 13 quality starts this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.73 strikeouts and 2.76 walks.

Yordan Alvarez has been on a tear of late, going 8/16 in his last four games with three homers and four RBIs. For the season, he is batting .313 with 28 homers and 71 RBIs, which is 9th in the MLB. Alvarez’s 28 homers are the most on the Astros and he is also on a six-game hitting streak. Catcher Yainer Diaz has also been a big power threat for the Astros, as he has 16 homers and 72 RBIs this season.

Overall, the Astros are the MLB’s 2nd ranked batting average team, and they are also 10th in home runs and have the league’s 9th ranked slugging percentage. Houston is averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. Currently, they are 10th in home runs and have the league’s 3rd fewest strikeouts.

There should be no shortage of offense in today’s Royals and Astros matchup, and not only are we leaning towards the Astros picking up the win, but we like the over as well. Framber Valdez has the highest innings pitched projection in the league today, and he has the 4th best odds to pick up a win among today’s starters.

Astros Aim to Leverage Bench Strength in Rematch vs. Royals

The Houston Astros, who have been grappling with inconsistent outfield production following the loss of All-Star Kyle Tucker in early June, are looking to bolster their lineup with the recent additions of veterans Ben Gamel and Jason Heyward. These new acquisitions could not only address the outfield void but also provide valuable depth to a Houston bench that has been overly reliant on inexperienced players.

Bench Contributions in Series Opener

The Astros’ 6-3 victory over the Kansas City Royals on Thursday showcased the potential benefits of this newfound bench depth. Manager Joe Espada utilized his entire four-man bench, with key contributions from both rookies and veterans. Rookie Zach Dezenzo, in particular, drew a bases-loaded walk during a crucial four-run eighth inning, setting the stage for timely hits from Victor Caratini and Mauricio Dubon. Dubon’s two-run single, which drove in Gamel and Jeremy Pena, further solidified the Astros’ lead.

With Kyle Tucker sidelined due to a shin contusion, Espada had to lean on a mix of rookies and veterans, including Gamel and Heyward, in the starting lineup. However, the added bench depth now gives Espada more options for late-game strategies.

“Having pieces that you can go to and that you trust allowed me to make those moves,” Espada said. “And guys being prepared and embracing their roles. Be ready because I’m going to use you, and I’m not afraid to use anyone.”

Framber Valdez Takes the Mound

The Astros will look to build on their momentum with left-hander Framber Valdez (13-6, 3.27 ERA) taking the mound on Friday. Valdez has been one of Houston’s most reliable starters, though he had his streak of eight consecutive winning decisions snapped in his last outing. In that game, Valdez allowed three runs on six hits and one walk while striking out eight over 5 2/3 innings in a 3-2 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. Despite the setback, Valdez has been dominant over his previous 10 starts, posting a 2.39 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 64 innings.

Valdez has a mixed record against the Royals, with a 2-2 mark and a 4.97 ERA over six career appearances (four starts). Last September, Valdez faced Kansas City in back-to-back starts, allowing eight runs (six earned) on 10 hits and four walks while striking out 15 over 12 1/3 innings, splitting the decisions.

Royals Look to Seth Lugo

The Royals will counter with right-hander Seth Lugo (14-8, 3.19 ERA) on Friday. Lugo has struggled in recent outings, most notably in his last start where he allowed six runs (five earned) on a career-high 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings during an 11-3 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. After a strong start to the season, where he posted a 2.17 ERA and won 11 of his first 13 decisions, Lugo has faltered, going 3-6 with a 5.30 ERA over his last nine starts.

Lugo has not fared well against the Astros historically, with a 1-2 record and a 7.04 ERA across three career starts. He did, however, earn a victory against Houston earlier this season, allowing two runs on seven hits over six innings in an 11-2 win.

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Injuries Plague Royals

To add to their troubles, the Royals suffered two injuries during Thursday’s loss. Leverage reliever Lucas Erceg and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino were both hurt on the same play in the bottom of the eighth inning. Erceg injured his right hand while attempting to field a grounder, and Pasquantino appeared to injure his right wrist during a collision with Yainer Diaz while attempting to field Erceg’s throw.

The status of both players remains uncertain for the remainder of the series. “They’re still out getting tested,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “They’re getting X-rays on their hands, so we don’t have much to say yet.”

Series Outlook

As the Astros aim to extend their winning streak and capitalize on their deepened bench, the Royals will be looking to regroup amidst their injury concerns. With Framber Valdez on the mound and the potential for more contributions from the bench, Houston is in a strong position to continue their success in this four-game series against Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Royals will need a strong performance from Seth Lugo and clarity on the status of their injured players to avoid falling further behind.